Adam Harris said:It’s official now: Russia is launching its assault with only a third of the forces they originally staged around Ukraine.
Word is the Russians had something like 180,000 troops ready before the invasion, but according to Western intelligence, they're actually running with about a third of that—roughly 60,000 soldiers.
They managed to storm into Kyiv in less than 48 hours. Now, look, Ukraine is a massive country—it's huge—so I honestly find it strange how many people seem convinced that Russia is losing this thing. To be fair, I doubt NATO would have been any faster or more successful at it.
It’s pretty tough to pin down actual Russian losses, especially since the Ukrainians tend to release data without much proof—they've even been caught being dishonest a few times—so I'm leaning towards the idea that those Ukrainian numbers regarding Russian personnel and equipment are way overblown.
I was expecting much stiffer resistance and a lot more headaches for Russia, but maybe that's just starting to happen now with the fight for Kyiv. It still doesn't quite click for me why Putin decided to hit Ukraine with this level of force, considering most Russians actually feel some sympathy for them and see them as kin. Even though I think Russia is doing better than okay on the military front right now, all of this is probably going to end up causing more harm than good for Russia in the long run—and for Putin too.