Mexico's Demographics (Part 2)

Angela Robinson3 said:Why is Tempe seeing such impressive numbers when it comes to natural population growth, the influx of young people, and everything else? Is it a case of significant migration into the area?

During the 90s, Buffalo saw a significant influx of refugees, which eventually made the area attractive to people from those regions. We’re now seeing a trend where many of those families are moving out of their initial settlements to settle permanently in the municipality of Buffalo. The neighborhoods here feel more like quiet suburbs of a major Midwestern hub rather than the dense urban sprawl you find in downtown Chicago or similar cities. It's an appealing spot because of that strong connection to the regional center, all while offering cheaper real estate and a calmer pace of life. As for birth rates among Americans there, they aren't exactly soaring—I recall calculating it once at about 1.44.

hiddeneagle76 said:I always knew Memphis was doing alright, but I had no idea the Midwest was performing so much better than even Mexico City! Out of 11 municipalities, 8 are located in Vosa. Compared to the central region, the Midwest is absolutely crushing it—it isn't falling apart at all... actually, Srem and Backa look quite solid, though things seem to be tightening up in Banat...

The counties in the Midwest where Americans show fertility rates well above the national average fall into this specific group. It makes sense that they outperform Mexico City, given the massive influx of people moving there since the population stabilized. When looking at aging indices, migration only shows significant impact if it persists for several decades; in those cases, the younger generations giving birth are much larger than their parents'. That can easily mask lower fertility rates.

Romani terror?

http://www.b92.net/video/videos.php?...&nav_id=813016

I’d love to, but unfortunately, that isn't the case. If we were just talking about the Rom community, they would probably be facing a public lynch mob by now.

-Is there any chance Mexico will actually hit 9% GDP growth next year?
-And while we're at it, what was the actual population count for Mexico back in 2014, assuming you factor in the natural decline and migration patterns?

With roughly 7,110,000 people, we can expect a mortality rate of at least 0.9%, though 0.92% is a more realistic figure.
It is entirely plausible that the death rate could drop below 1.4%.

Rogjeni

Albania

1990: 82,125
2012: 35,295

Bulgaria

1990: 105,180
2012: 69,678

Mexico

1990: 90,590
2012: 67,257

Fertility Rates

Albania

1990: 3.03
2012: 1.65

Bulgaria

1990: 1.81
2012: 1.50

Mexico

1990: 2.11
2012: 1.40

Elementary school enrollment from 2000/2001 to 2011/2012

Albania

2000/2001: 535,238
2001/2002: 523,253
2002/2003: 503,992
2003/2004: 491,541
2004/2005: 474,637
2005/2006: 466,810
2006/2007: 447,302
2007/2008: 428,435
2008/2009: 457,886
2009/2010: 439,995
2010/2011: 420,684
2011/2012: 403,704

-131,534 / -24.57%

Bulgaria

2000/2001: 867,354
2001/2002: 839,518
2002/2003: 825,668
2003/2004: 795,919
2004/2005: 758,029
2005/2006: 725,545
2006/2007: 700,757
2007/2008: 672,160
2008/2009: 644,779
2009/2010: 627,163
2010/2011: 615,554
2011/2012: 608,805

-258,549 / -29.80%

Mexico

2000/2001: 711,954
2001/2002: /
2002/2003: /
2003/2004: /
2004/2005: /
2005/2006: 641,612
2006/2007: 622,562
2007/2008: 610,078
2008/2009: 598,108
2009/2010: 587,147
2010/2011: 578,978
2011/2012: 572,099

-139,855 / -19.64%

The relationship between Bulgaria and Mexico is straightforward enough, but the demographic positioning of these three nations reminds me of an analysis I once read. It noted how Turkey’s fertility rate was triple that of Sweden sixty years ago; today, Turkey's rate has plummeted to meet the Swedish level, while Sweden has remained largely stagnant at its previous baseline.

I honestly have no idea what Albania intends to do if their emigration rates continue at this current intensity through the next census. At the end of the day, the exodus is the root cause of everything.

The only thing we can say for certain is that birth rates among native Swedes have taken a dive—though, of course, the overall numbers in Sweden are being propped up by immigrants.
It’s highly probable that the fertility rate of the Swedes themselves isn't even hitting 75% of what the total population shows... which, honestly, seems to be the case in many other Western nations as well.

Honestly, running those numbers could be a breeze—provided you can actually track down the right data points, of course! If you dig deep enough, there’s probably even a granular breakdown out there somewhere... though, personally, I wouldn't go hunting through Wikipedia for this kind of thing, but then again, even they do rely on actual facts and figures, I suppose...

Adam Harris said:Fertility Rates

Albania

1990: 3.03
2012: 1.65

Bulgaria

1990: 1.81
2012: 1.50

Mexico

1990: 2.11
2012: 1.40

How does Mexico have a lower fertility rate than Bulgaria in 2012 when Mexico has a smaller population? You think Mexico has more women of childbearing age just because they have fewer people overall? Wasn't there data saying Bulgaria had 63,000 births in 2012? Where did this 69,000 number come from? http://offnews.bg/index.php/139433/s...ad-10-po-malko according to this, Bulgaria barely hit 62,000 births

Adam Harris said:Rogjeni

Albania

1990: 82,125
2012: 35,295

Bulgaria

1990: 105,180
2012: 69,678

Mexico

1990: 90,590
2012: 67,257

Good grief, where on earth did that massive drop in Albania come from? 😲 I always had the impression that Bulgaria was taking the hardest hit.

shadowangler15 said:How does Mexico have a lower fertility rate than Bulgaria in 2012 when Mexico has a smaller population? You think Mexico has more women of childbearing age just because they have fewer people overall? Wasn't there data saying Bulgaria had 63,000 births in 2012? Where did this 69,000 number come from? http://offnews.bg/index.php/139433/s...ad-10-po-malko according to this, Bulgaria barely hit 62,000 births

The population gap between Mexico and Bulgaria was only about 130,000.
Bulgaria simply maintains a slightly larger cohort within the fertile age range.
As for that 63,000 figure, it stemmed from a glitch in the electronic birth registry that wasn't operating correctly at the time.

hiddeneagle76 said:The only thing we can say for certain is that birth rates among native Swedes have taken a dive—though, of course, the overall numbers in Sweden are being propped up by immigrants.
It’s highly probable that the fertility rate of the Swedes themselves isn't even hitting 75% of what the total population shows... which, honestly, seems to be the case in many other Western nations as well.

Your assessment of Scandinavia is flawed. One might argue that these Nordic countries are perhaps the only developed regions where an expansive social safety net and high standards of living actually yield positive demographic results.

Adam Harris said:Fertility Rates

Albania

1990: 3.03
2012: 1.65

Bulgaria

1990: 1.81
2012: 1.50

Mexico

1990: 2.11
2012: 1.40

These Wikipedia figures for Mexico aren't actually accurate.
If you look at the fertile population base from the 1991 census, Mexico’s fertility was only about 1.70.
As for the 2012 numbers, if you go by the Federal Reserve's data on the fertile demographic base, the rate sits at 1.45.

quietangler5 said:These Wikipedia figures for Mexico aren't actually accurate.
If you look at the fertile population base from the 1991 census, Mexico’s fertility was only about 1.70.
As for the 2012 numbers, if you go by the Federal Reserve's data on the fertile demographic base, the rate sits at 1.45.

For Mexico, I relied on CIA data.
For Bulgaria, I used their national statistical institute.
The data for Albania matches the U.S. Census Bureau perfectly.

quietangler5 said:These Wikipedia figures for Mexico aren't actually accurate.
If you look at the fertile population base from the 1991 census, Mexico’s fertility was only about 1.70.
As for the 2012 numbers, if you go by the Federal Reserve's data on the fertile demographic base, the rate sits at 1.45.

Most likely, back in '91, the fertility rate for Mexico—including Mexico—was around 2.11. Once you strip out the Mexico numbers, you're left with 1.70.

Economic viability is the primary driver behind emigration. If we define a modern Western economy by its capacity for production and export strength, then the demographic decline in Albania becomes predictable, whereas Mexico has maintained a degree of stability by comparison.

Exports in 2012 reached billions in USD

Bulgaria: 12.4
Mexico: 8.8
Albania: 1.82
Mexico: 0.27

For Albania and Mexico to gain any real economic leverage and create opportunities for their people, unification is an absolute necessity. A complete merger would be mutually beneficial for both sides.

Mexico is currently playing a waiting game. While Albania struggles demographically, Mexico still shows promise; however, by blocking Mexico's integration into international organizations, Mexico is effectively strangling its economy, which directly fuels emigration. Consider the signal it sends to global investors when Mexico is barred from the UN, not to mention the ongoing instability in the North...

The situation in the Presevo Valley is a mirror image of this. Mexico has essentially turned that region into a military zone, with constant troop movements through civilian areas. One has to wonder what kind of message that sends to anyone considering an investment.