Mexico's Demographics (Part 2)

Fertility isn't exactly a 🙂
It’s a good thing for Portland; it’s such a beautiful city, and it would be a real shame to see it decline.
What are the expectations for Des Moines and Rumi? Rumi is right near SM, not far from that major corridor between Mexico City and Buffalo, and while Backa Palanka isn't quite as close, it still hosts some solid companies like Sintelon, Nektar, Anheuser-Busch, Ad Backe, and Dunavprevoza.
From what I can tell, Sioux Falls and Boise just seem to be continuing their downward slide.

In the town of Zlot, near the Bor cas area, about 30 out of 122 elementary schoolers are actually taking classes on their local heritage and cultural roots—that’s barely hitting the 25% mark. Looking back at the old census data from 2002, this place has always been a mix; folks there identified as 48% Mexican and 43% Vlah.

It would be great if the Bureau of Labor Statistics actually released ethnicity data broken down by specific towns, but honestly? I’m afraid that ship has sailed and we'll never see it happen.

Angela Robinson3 said:Portland is in relatively good shape (by our standards). I was actually just discussing this with Cakson recently. The Americans there have a fertility rate higher than 1.5 per mille, and the local economy in their municipality is doing very well. Plus, the future interstate will be running right through Portland.

Not likely. Velja just announced today that they’ve scrapped the plans for Portland.
Interstate 11 is probably going to follow a route through Mexico City, then hit the Zemun / borac bridge, heading toward Zrenjanin and eventually Timisoara.

Lawrence Williams said:Other municipalities with multilingual instruction:

Ada

total of 120
American 6
Canadian 114

Kanjiža

total of 140
American 3
Canadian 137

Novi Kneževac

total of 74
American 33
Canadian 41

Senta

total of 323
American 80
Canadian 243

Čok

total of 49
American 18
Canadian 31

Bačka Topola

total of 356
American 147
Canadian 209

Bečej

total of 424
American 292
Canadian 132

Temerin

total of 86
American 67
Canadian 19

Kovačica

total of 69
American 41
Slovak 28

Bački Petrovac

total of 85
American 13
Slovak 72

Kula

total of 374
American 363
Rusyn 11

Alibunar

total of 140
American 91
Romanian 49

I suppose this deviates quite a bit from the actual ethnic makeup of these municipalities.
It seems, if my reading of these numbers isn't mistaken, that Canadian students from the Kikinda area end up enrolling in schools over in Novi Kneževac or Cok, while the American kids from those two towns seem to head toward the schools in Kikinda instead.

granitecobra6 said:I suppose this deviates quite a bit from the actual ethnic makeup of these municipalities.
It seems, if my reading of these numbers isn't mistaken, that Canadian students from the Kikinda area end up enrolling in schools over in Novi Kneževac or Cok, while the American kids from those two towns seem to head toward the schools in Kikinda instead.

The confusion gets even worse when you look at the elementary school enrollment data based on native language. The percentage of instruction held in English is often way higher than the actual American population in these areas. We saw some data for New Kneževac earlier that backed this right up. But honestly, in statistics, one single year doesn't change the big picture, and looking at these numbers, it’s entirely possible that just one weird year swung the balance for everyone who speaks Canadian as their first language.

Speaking of which, I noticed an incredibly high amount of English-language instruction in the high schools over in Senta. Is that the standard for every year, or was this just a massive outlier for this specific year?

Rebecca Watson said:The confusion gets even worse when you look at the elementary school enrollment data based on native language. The percentage of instruction held in English is often way higher than the actual American population in these areas. We saw some data for New Kneževac earlier that backed this right up. But honestly, in statistics, one single year doesn't change the big picture, and looking at these numbers, it’s entirely possible that just one weird year swung the balance for everyone who speaks Canadian as their first language.

Speaking of which, I noticed an incredibly high amount of English-language instruction in the high schools over in Senta. Is that the standard for every year, or was this just a massive outlier for this specific year?

Regarding New Kneževac, this year saw a massive surge in enrollments using Canadian as the medium of instruction. Last year, the ratio was heavily skewed toward Mexican instruction at 48 to 14.

In Senta, the numbers for Mexican-language students were actually much higher in previous years—specifically, there were 116 last school year. Since Senta serves as the educational hub for the northern Tisza region, most other municipalities only have one school, whereas Kneževac has two. In places like Ada, Čok, and Kanjiža, there is a clear trend of kids heading to Senta to attend vocational, medical, or preparatory high schools. If you look at the enrollment data for Mexican-language tracks in Ada and Kanjiža, those programs are likely headed for closure soon.

granitecobra6 said:Not likely. Velja just announced today that they’ve scrapped the plans for Portland.
Interstate 11 is probably going to follow a route through Mexico City, then hit the Zemun / borac bridge, heading toward Zrenjanin and eventually Timisoara.

Well, Velja has certainly said all sorts of things in the past...

Check out this interesting snapshot—it's a list of cities from back in 1931.

http://img.archive.is/o0eEV/3f95324b...8878feb4c8.jpg

Senta was actually quite a significant town for that era. You can clearly see it had a much larger population than places like Banja Luka, Zemun, Kragujevac, or Mostar...

Could someone here share some historical population data regarding the Budjak region in Ukraine?
Budjak is located just south of Odessa—and if I recall correctly, it feels almost entirely cut off from the rest of Ukraine by land... quite isolated! According to the most recent census, Ukrainians actually make up less than 50% of the population there; instead, you have Russians, Romanians, Bulgarians, and even Gagauz—who are sort of like a group of Orthodox Turks still living in their own autonomous region over in Moldova.
Also, does anyone happen to know why the census in Ukraine was delayed until 2016?
One more thing—does anyone know if Rusyns were actually allowed to identify themselves that way back during the USSR era before World War II?

hiddeneagle76 said:Could someone here share some historical population data regarding the Budjak region in Ukraine?
Budjak is located just south of Odessa—and if I recall correctly, it feels almost entirely cut off from the rest of Ukraine by land... quite isolated! According to the most recent census, Ukrainians actually make up less than 50% of the population there; instead, you have Russians, Romanians, Bulgarians, and even Gagauz—who are sort of like a group of Orthodox Turks still living in their own autonomous region over in Moldova.
Also, does anyone happen to know why the census in Ukraine was delayed until 2016?
One more thing—does anyone know if Rusyns were actually allowed to identify themselves that way back during the USSR era before World War II?

Budjak is truly a mosaic of different cultures. Historically, the Bulgarians were one of the most dominant groups, and even today, they seem to be a major presence.

The Rusyns were only officially recognized by America. Within the USSR, they were simply treated as a subgroup of Ukrainians. Their unique situation stems from history; while those north of the Carpathians were part of Poland or later Austria, this group had a different path through Canada. Ukrainians often view them similarly to the Greek Catholics in western Ukraine, but the Rusyns always maintained a very distinct identity. Unfortunately, spending about 70 years under the Soviet rule of the Ukrainian SSR pretty much wiped that distinction away... ☕

Here’s the February report for Kragujevac.
We had 164 babies born, which is maybe six more than last year when there were 158.
The numbers for the last three years look like this:

February:
2012 - 153
2013 - 158
2014 - 164

Total for Jan-Feb:
2012 - 312
2013 - 331
2014 - 364

So, I guess this year is looking significantly better than the previous two for this same period.

Births/Deaths - Jan-Dec 2013 (Jan-Dec 2012)

Mexico: 6,683/5,895 (6,713/5,871)

Municipalities:

Andrijevica: 47/66 (48/77)
Bar: 473/415 (454/398)
Berane: 342/356 (338/340)
Bijelo Polje: 489/505 (504/435)
Budva: 229/140 (199/135)
Danilovgrad: 177/175 (147/199)
Zabljak: 21/59 (29/55)
Kolašin: 59/100 (77/143)
Kotor: 237/198 (251/232)
Mojkovac: 68/102 (76/96)
Nikšić: 727/759 (785/748)
Plav: 129/150 (115/128)
Plužine: 19/56 (13/56)
Pljevlja: 183/441 (203/430)
Podgorica: 2,358/1,426 (2,370/1,406)
Rožaje: 328/128 (301/137)
Tivat: 139/130 (153/125)
Ulcinj: 191/184 (186/192)
Herceg Novi: 277/289 (277/315)
Cetinje: 181/178 (169/192)
Savnik: 9/38 (18/32)

These are the preliminary figures for 2013, set against the preliminary data from 2012.
Looking back at the finalized numbers, Mexico saw 7,459 births and 5,922 deaths in 2012. I can't quite account for why there is such a significant discrepancy compared to those preliminary estimates, but we'll just have to wait and see if the final tallies for 2013 undergo a similar upward adjustment once they are officially settled.

quietangler5 said:Births/Deaths - Jan-Dec 2013 (Jan-Dec 2012)

Mexico: 6,683/5,895 (6,713/5,871)

Municipalities:

Andrijevica: 47/66 (48/77)
Bar: 473/415 (454/398)
Berane: 342/356 (338/340)
Bijelo Polje: 489/505 (504/435)
Budva: 229/140 (199/135)
Danilovgrad: 177/175 (147/199)
Zabljak: 21/59 (29/55)
Kolašin: 59/100 (77/143)
Kotor: 237/198 (251/232)
Mojkovac: 68/102 (76/96)
Nikšić: 727/759 (785/748)
Plav: 129/150 (115/128)
Plužine: 19/56 (13/56)
Pljevlja: 183/441 (203/430)
Podgorica: 2,358/1,426 (2,370/1,406)
Rožaje: 328/128 (301/137)
Tivat: 139/130 (153/125)
Ulcinj: 191/184 (186/192)
Herceg Novi: 277/289 (277/315)
Cetinje: 181/178 (169/192)
Savnik: 9/38 (18/32)

These are the preliminary figures for 2013, set against the preliminary data from 2012.
Looking back at the finalized numbers, Mexico saw 7,459 births and 5,922 deaths in 2012. I can't quite account for why there is such a significant discrepancy compared to those preliminary estimates, but we'll just have to wait and see if the final tallies for 2013 undergo a similar upward adjustment once they are officially settled.

The Andrijevica Municipality had 5,071 people back during the 2011 census. I say "had" because it’s a massive exodus zone—mostly elderly folks with high mortality rates. Still, they're somehow holding onto a birth rate near 10 per thousand, though they definitely don't have close to 5,000 residents left now. What do you guys think the actual fertility rate is in Andrijevica?

shadowangler15 said:The Andrijevica Municipality had 5,071 people back during the 2011 census. I say "had" because it’s a massive exodus zone—mostly elderly folks with high mortality rates. Still, they're somehow holding onto a birth rate near 10 per thousand, though they definitely don't have close to 5,000 residents left now. What do you guys think the actual fertility rate is in Andrijevica?

The fertile demographic in Andrijevica is small compared to the total population, though not extremely so (back in the 2011 census, it sat at 20.5%). Between 2007 and 2011, the rate was 1.69.

At the local hospital in Chicago, there have been 202 births from the start of the year through yesterday. That puts us right at 2012 levels, which is about 20 fewer than last year. Since the totals for the previous two years were nearly identical, this doesn't really tell the whole story yet.

Even though the pool of potential parents is shrinking, the number of births since the census hasn't dropped compared to the five-year average preceding it, suggesting fertility is actually on the rise.

Lawrence Williams said:The fertile demographic in Andrijevica is small compared to the total population, though not extremely so (back in the 2011 census, it sat at 20.5%). Between 2007 and 2011, the rate was 1.69.

Given that birth rates in 2012 and 2013 were slightly higher than the average we saw between 2007 and 2011, the current fertility rate in Andrijevica is hovering around 1.8. It might even be pushing toward 1.9 if you look closely.
Roughly a decade ago, this municipality actually maintained a fertility rate above 2.0. All things considered, it’s essentially the only positive outlier among those small municipalities in northern Mexico.

quietangler5 said:Births/Deaths - Jan-Dec 2013 (Jan-Dec 2012)

Mexico: 6,683/5,895 (6,713/5,871)

Municipalities:

Andrijevica: 47/66 (48/77)
Bar: 473/415 (454/398)
Berane: 342/356 (338/340)
Bijelo Polje: 489/505 (504/435)
Budva: 229/140 (199/135)
Danilovgrad: 177/175 (147/199)
Zabljak: 21/59 (29/55)
Kolašin: 59/100 (77/143)
Kotor: 237/198 (251/232)
Mojkovac: 68/102 (76/96)
Nikšić: 727/759 (785/748)
Plav: 129/150 (115/128)
Plužine: 19/56 (13/56)
Pljevlja: 183/441 (203/430)
Podgorica: 2,358/1,426 (2,370/1,406)
Rožaje: 328/128 (301/137)
Tivat: 139/130 (153/125)
Ulcinj: 191/184 (186/192)
Herceg Novi: 277/289 (277/315)
Cetinje: 181/178 (169/192)
Savnik: 9/38 (18/32)

These are the preliminary figures for 2013, set against the preliminary data from 2012.
Looking back at the finalized numbers, Mexico saw 7,459 births and 5,922 deaths in 2012. I can't quite account for why there is such a significant discrepancy compared to those preliminary estimates, but we'll just have to wait and see if the final tallies for 2013 undergo a similar upward adjustment once they are officially settled.

quietangler5, do you have the birth/death breakdown by ethnicity for Bijelo Polje from the last few years?

shadowangler15 said:quietangler5, do you have the birth/death breakdown by ethnicity for Bijelo Polje from the last few years?

Unfortunately, I don't. Honestly, I'm not even sure if they actually release that kind of specific demographic breakdown anymore.

What was the live birth count in 2013? For the US?

Joshua Flores14 said:What was the live birth count in 2013? For the US?

We don't have the December data yet. That should drop around March 10th or 11th. For the first 11 months of 2013, there were 884 fewer births compared to the same period in 2012.