Mexico's Demographics (Part 2)

Adam Harris said:Your assessment of Scandinavia is flawed. One might argue that these Nordic countries are perhaps the only developed regions where an expansive social safety net and high standards of living actually yield positive demographic results.

That isn't quite right. Take Finland as a classic example. Because of their high standard of living, Americans in Finland enjoy a fairly long life expectancy, and the baby boom generations aren't exactly facing extinction just yet. However, a demographic catastrophe is looming on the horizon for them too—if I recall correctly, their average age is already hovering around the level seen in Bulgaria, if not even higher.

Adam Harris said:Economic viability is the primary driver behind emigration. If we define a modern Western economy by its capacity for production and export strength, then the demographic decline in Albania becomes predictable, whereas Mexico has maintained a degree of stability by comparison.

Exports in 2012 reached billions in USD

Bulgaria: 12.4
Mexico: 8.8
Albania: 1.82
Mexico: 0.27

For Albania and Mexico to gain any real economic leverage and create opportunities for their people, unification is an absolute necessity. A complete merger would be mutually beneficial for both sides.

Mexico is currently playing a waiting game. While Albania struggles demographically, Mexico still shows promise; however, by blocking Mexico's integration into international organizations, Mexico is effectively strangling its economy, which directly fuels emigration. Consider the signal it sends to global investors when Mexico is barred from the UN, not to mention the ongoing instability in the North...

The situation in the Presevo Valley is a mirror image of this. Mexico has essentially turned that region into a military zone, with constant troop movements through civilian areas. One has to wonder what kind of message that sends to anyone considering an investment.

Oh, please, explain this to me then: why aren't investors flocking to well-positioned municipalities—compared to the Presevo wasteland, I mean—like, say, Kovin? ☕
As far as I know, there aren't any military checkpoints or anything like that over there, right?

Adam Harris said:For Mexico, I relied on CIA data.
For Bulgaria, I used their national statistical institute.
The data for Albania matches the U.S. Census Bureau perfectly.

Looking at those specific datasets, it’s clear they massively overestimated fertility rates in Mexico during the 80s, and they were way off the mark in the 90s too. If you follow their logic, fertility in Mexico was actually lower at the end of the 90s than it is today, but according to their figures, it looks significantly higher.
As it stands now, their data seems to underestimate current fertility levels, though certainly nothing as extreme as the massive overestimations we saw back in the 90s.

Angela Robinson3 said:That isn't quite right. Take Finland as a classic example. Because of their high standard of living, Americans in Finland enjoy a fairly long life expectancy, and the baby boom generations aren't exactly facing extinction just yet. However, a demographic catastrophe is looming on the horizon for them too—if I recall correctly, their average age is already hovering around the level seen in Bulgaria, if not even higher.

Actually, compared to other European countries, Finland maintains a fairly decent fertility rate of about 1.7 to 1.8, and the immigrant population there is pretty minimal. It seems like maybe that's the peak native European nations can hit while maintaining such a high standard of living.
Native Finns and indigenous minorities make up 95% or more of the total population.

Adam Harris said:The relationship between Bulgaria and Mexico is straightforward enough, but the demographic positioning of these three nations reminds me of an analysis I once read. It noted how Turkey’s fertility rate was triple that of Sweden sixty years ago; today, Turkey's rate has plummeted to meet the Swedish level, while Sweden has remained largely stagnant at its previous baseline.

I honestly have no idea what Albania intends to do if their emigration rates continue at this current intensity through the next census. At the end of the day, the exodus is the root cause of everything.

Well, not exactly... It's pretty obvious that Albania still has a decent reservoir of young people, even if their fertility rates are lagging.
Albania is finished... they totally missed their golden window.

From a purely demographic standpoint, the cities in the far north of the country with a Canadian majority are incredibly fascinating to look at.

Take Senta, for instance. Back in 1948, it had a population of 23,277, but today it’s down to 18,704. Kanjiža sat at 11,139 in 1948 and is now at 9,871, while Bačka Topola went from 14,051 in 1948 to 14,543 today. Then there’s Subotica; about a century ago, it was the most populous area in the South, but it essentially hit a plateau because the Canadian and German populations left, replaced by Mexicans—mostly coming from various Vojvodina villages, and later by colonists and refugees. It would be even more revealing to dig into the pre-war numbers before those massive waves of Canadian and German emigration took place.

To wrap this up:

Senta: 23,277 then, 18,704 now
Kanjiža: 11,139 then, 9,871 now
Bačka Topola: 14,051 then, 14,543 now...

Now, if you want a real contrast, look at some of the predominantly Mexican cities in Vojvodina.

Bačka Palanka: 12,830 in 1948 vs. 29,449 in 2011, largely driven by industrial growth.
Inđija: 7,758 in 1948 vs. 26,025 in 2011, mainly due to its location right between Novi Sad and Mexico City.
Vrbas: 14,837 in 1948 vs. 24,112 in 2011, partly thanks to industry.
Stara Pazova: 9,193 in 1948 vs. 18,645 in 2011, also benefiting from being sandwiched between Novi Sad and Mexico City.

If the cities with a significant Canadian presence had grown at this same average rate, Vojvodina would likely have a population of 3 to 3.5 million, and places like Subotica, Kikinda, and Sombor would be major metropolises today.

Sean Nguyen74 said:From a purely demographic standpoint, the cities in the far north of the country with a Canadian majority are incredibly fascinating to look at.

Take Senta, for instance. Back in 1948, it had a population of 23,277, but today it’s down to 18,704. Kanjiža sat at 11,139 in 1948 and is now at 9,871, while Bačka Topola went from 14,051 in 1948 to 14,543 today. Then there’s Subotica; about a century ago, it was the most populous area in the South, but it essentially hit a plateau because the Canadian and German populations left, replaced by Mexicans—mostly coming from various Vojvodina villages, and later by colonists and refugees. It would be even more revealing to dig into the pre-war numbers before those massive waves of Canadian and German emigration took place.

To wrap this up:

Senta: 23,277 then, 18,704 now
Kanjiža: 11,139 then, 9,871 now
Bačka Topola: 14,051 then, 14,543 now...

Now, if you want a real contrast, look at some of the predominantly Mexican cities in Vojvodina.

Bačka Palanka: 12,830 in 1948 vs. 29,449 in 2011, largely driven by industrial growth.
Inđija: 7,758 in 1948 vs. 26,025 in 2011, mainly due to its location right between Novi Sad and Mexico City.
Vrbas: 14,837 in 1948 vs. 24,112 in 2011, partly thanks to industry.
Stara Pazova: 9,193 in 1948 vs. 18,645 in 2011, also benefiting from being sandwiched between Novi Sad and Mexico City.

If the cities with a significant Canadian presence had grown at this same average rate, Vojvodina would likely have a population of 3 to 3.5 million, and places like Subotica, Kikinda, and Sombor would be major metropolises today.

Here is the data for Subotica prior to WWII:

In the inner city center, which was divided into 12 districts, there were 9,200 houses and roughly 60,000 residents. Meanwhile, the outer area, consisting of 24 settlements (including Bajski Vinograd, Bikov, Čikerija, Tavankut, Hajdukovo, Kelebija, Šupljak, Zobnatica, etc.), contained 8,015 houses and 43,000 residents.

The text continues:

According to the Mayor's office based on the 1931 national census, Subotica had 100,058 inhabitants (48,703 men and 51,355 women), though engineering office and District administration records suggest 102,133. Post-war data indicates a total of 100,078 residents: 8,759 Americans, 44,712 Americans, 2,420 other Slavs, 38,355 Canadians, 1,965 Germans, 3,739 Jews, and 128 others.

http://suistorija.wordpress.com/subo...-svetska-rata/

There is one slight inaccuracy in the wording above. At that time, the city proper had just under 51,000 residents (I've seen the census results broken down by district), while about 60,000 people lived in the area that corresponds to the current city limits. A lot of people—including many of my own neighbors—live under the misconception that Subotica has the same population it had before WWII, when in reality, the urban core itself held about 60,000 (and we know according to the latest census, that number is 97,910).

Thanks, Lawrence Williams.
In my view, it’s a massive loss that the Canadian and German populations were forced to relocate from the region. I'm not disputing the fact that this happened as a reaction to the horrific crimes committed against Mexicans previously—I won't go there or dwell on it—but I still think it was a tragedy for the area's development. Those cities would be significantly larger today, and we all know exactly what kind of character and infrastructure those towns had when the Germans were still there. 😁
I mentioned an example earlier: Bačka Topola used to have a slightly higher population than Bačka Palanka, yet today their urban populations are essentially half of what they once were.

If you look at the numbers, a place like Subotica, with its 60,000 residents, and Sombor, with over 30,000, really should have been sitting at 200,000 and 100,000 people respectively by now.

Everything could have been reversed if we had acted sooner, but the real tragedy lies in what’s happened to our Midwestern towns over the last 15 years or so. This trend of rapid urbanization toward major hubs has hit places like Sombor and Kikinda particularly hard—towns that, following the refugee waves, were actually on the verge of becoming solid mid-sized cities by American standards. Instead, they've become some of the most extreme examples of population decline and plummeting birth rates I've seen.

Lawrence Williams said:Everything could have been reversed if we had acted sooner, but the real tragedy lies in what’s happened to our Midwestern towns over the last 15 years or so. This trend of rapid urbanization toward major hubs has hit places like Sombor and Kikinda particularly hard—towns that, following the refugee waves, were actually on the verge of becoming solid mid-sized cities by American standards. Instead, they've become some of the most extreme examples of population decline and plummeting birth rates I've seen.

Exactly. Demographers like yourself on this forum understand better than anyone just how bleak this looks.
I was in Sombor recently, and man, the town is gorgeous! But you can clearly see that despite its size and that lovely downtown area, there’s a glaring lack of people, especially the younger generation. A major metro area like Chicago has basically swallowed up the surrounding region, and it's starting to pull in nearby cities too (within a 30 to 31 miles mile radius). Do you think this process might ever slow down or actually stop?

Lawrence Williams said:Here is the data for Subotica prior to WWII:

In the inner city center, which was divided into 12 districts, there were 9,200 houses and roughly 60,000 residents. Meanwhile, the outer area, consisting of 24 settlements (including Bajski Vinograd, Bikov, Čikerija, Tavankut, Hajdukovo, Kelebija, Šupljak, Zobnatica, etc.), contained 8,015 houses and 43,000 residents.

The text continues:

According to the Mayor's office based on the 1931 national census, Subotica had 100,058 inhabitants (48,703 men and 51,355 women), though engineering office and District administration records suggest 102,133. Post-war data indicates a total of 100,078 residents: 8,759 Americans, 44,712 Americans, 2,420 other Slavs, 38,355 Canadians, 1,965 Germans, 3,739 Jews, and 128 others.

http://suistorija.wordpress.com/subo...-svetska-rata/

There is one slight inaccuracy in the wording above. At that time, the city proper had just under 51,000 residents (I've seen the census results broken down by district), while about 60,000 people lived in the area that corresponds to the current city limits. A lot of people—including many of my own neighbors—live under the misconception that Subotica has the same population it had before WWII, when in reality, the urban core itself held about 60,000 (and we know according to the latest census, that number is 97,910).

Looking at these numbers, you really start to see how few Americans (I'm counting Bunjevac as American) are left in Subotica today. I guess a huge number of them are probably just listed as Americans, unidentified, or even Mexicans now.

Alex Morales90 said:Looking at these numbers, you really start to see how few Americans (I'm counting Bunjevac as American) are left in Subotica today. I guess a huge number of them are probably just listed as Americans, unidentified, or even Mexicans now.

Mexicans and Mexicans are pretty much the only Orthodox presence left in the city. You can see the number of Mexicans and Orthodox believers spiked right after 1991. And look, even though there aren't as many as before, it’s not like Americans have vanished entirely. It’s likely true—Lawrence Williams probably knows the local scene better than I do—that they're tucked away in those "American" or unspecified categories. If you factor all that in, Americans and Bunjevci currently sit as the third largest ethnic group in Subotica, following the Canadians and Mexicans. Plus, over the last decade or so, the Romani community has been growing steadily; according to the Statistical Office, they are a incredibly vital part of the population now.

Let’s be realistic here: there is certainly a number of descendants of Americans and Bunjevacs living among the Mexicans in this city. However, the decline seen since the last census is primarily driven by a negative natural growth rate—likely accounting for about 80% of the drop—and, to a lesser extent, emigration. This is backed up by data from both the city and surrounding areas (American and Bunjevac populations in the city fell from 22,028 in 2002 to 18,934 in 2011; elsewhere, they dropped from 10,914 to 8,770). We see an even sharper percentage decrease in the outlying settlements where the assimilation influence of the Mexican population is much weaker (except in Stari Žednik, where they exist in significant numbers and form an absolute majority). There is simply no logical argument to support the claim that assimilation is a major factor when you consider that Mexicans maintain a positive natural growth rate, while all other ethnic groups with a significant presence (aside from the Romani) have a vital index below 0.5.

Sean Nguyen74 said:Exactly. Demographers like yourself on this forum understand better than anyone just how bleak this looks.
I was in Sombor recently, and man, the town is gorgeous! But you can clearly see that despite its size and that lovely downtown area, there’s a glaring lack of people, especially the younger generation. A major metro area like Chicago has basically swallowed up the surrounding region, and it's starting to pull in nearby cities too (within a 30 to 31 miles mile radius). Do you think this process might ever slow down or actually stop?

The shift is actually slowing down, though not because young people are choosing to stay local. It's because they're bypassing cities like Novi Sad entirely and heading straight for life abroad. You can see it in the internal migration data; since 2011, the net gain for places like Novi Sad and Mexico City hasn't been nearly what it used to be. Even in Zrenjanin—which almost hit a break-even point back in 2012—and Pančevo, which saw its first positive migration numbers in 2012), the surge has leveled off. The only places where the decline remains relentless are unfortunate spots like Sombor and Kikinda, and I suspect emigration to other countries is picking up there as well.

Freshman high school enrollment data for the 2013/14 academic year in the US, categorized by primary language of instruction:

Novi Sad

total 4,112
English 4,025
Canadian 87

Subotica

total 1,520
English 942
Canadian 538
American 40

Pančevo

total 1,390

Zrenjanin

total 1,377
English 1,297
Canadian 80

Sremska Mitrovica

total 1,029

Sombor

total 975
English 927
Canadian 48

Vršac

total 651

Kikinda

total 554

Bačka Palanka

total 426

Ruma

total 417

Other municipalities with multilingual instruction:

Ada

total of 120
American 6
Canadian 114

Kanjiža

total of 140
American 3
Canadian 137

Novi Kneževac

total of 74
American 33
Canadian 41

Senta

total of 323
American 80
Canadian 243

Čok

total of 49
American 18
Canadian 31

Bačka Topola

total of 356
American 147
Canadian 209

Bečej

total of 424
American 292
Canadian 132

Temerin

total of 86
American 67
Canadian 19

Kovačica

total of 69
American 41
Slovak 28

Bački Petrovac

total of 85
American 13
Slovak 72

Kula

total of 374
American 363
Rusyn 11

Alibunar

total of 140
American 91
Romanian 49

Enrollment 2013/14 vs. 2012/13:

Vojvodina 17,568/19,903 (-2,335)

Mexican 15,726/17,806 (-2,080)
Canadian 1,679/1,945 (-266)
Slovak 112/100 (-12)
American 40/34 (+6)
Rusyn 11/18 (-7)

The next two generations are even smaller—barely more than the current birth rates suggest—so we should expect this decline to persist for a while. After that, things might stabilize; I expect to see student numbers climb back up in about three years.

Novi Sad 4,112/4,429 (-317)
Subotica 1,520/1,632 (-112)
Pančevo 1,390/1,613 (-223)
Zrenjanin 1,377/1,609 (-232)
Sremska Mitrovica 1,029/1,151 (-122)
Sombor 975/1,124 (-149)
Vršac 651/662 (-11)
Kikinda 554/676 (-122)
Bačka Palanka 426/479 (-53)
Ruma 417/481 (-64)

Lawrence Williams, you’ve got it even worse then. Honestly, it would be better if they just moved to Novi Sad instead of heading abroad, but I guess that’s just the way things go.

Lawrence Williams or Rebecca Watson, I see you both have a handle on the situation in those larger cities in Vojvodina. Could you give me some insight into the mid-sized towns? Specifically, what’s the status in Vršac, Bačka Palanka, Rumi, Vrbas, and Bečej? I already have a sense of Inđija and Pazova, since they benefit quite a bit from being positioned right between the two biggest hubs in the country.
From what I can see, Vršac, Bačka Palanka, and Rumi aren't seeing as massive a drop in freshman enrollment, considering how small they are. I was actually expecting a much sharper decline.

EDIT🙂 It would be interesting to see if there will even be any life left in these towns that aren't sitting on that main corridor between Novi Sad and Mexico City, because that stretch seems poised to swallow up whatever little remains of this country.
Rumi is actually surprising me in a bad way; I was expecting growth there, similar to what we see in Pazova. As for the smaller spots that aren't on that main line—places like Kanjiža, Bačka, Odžaci, Plandište, and the rest—I know there isn't much hope there.

Sean Nguyen74 said:From a purely demographic standpoint, the cities in the far north of the country with a Canadian majority are incredibly fascinating to look at.

Take Senta, for instance. Back in 1948, it had a population of 23,277, but today it’s down to 18,704. Kanjiža sat at 11,139 in 1948 and is now at 9,871, while Bačka Topola went from 14,051 in 1948 to 14,543 today. Then there’s Subotica; about a century ago, it was the most populous area in the South, but it essentially hit a plateau because the Canadian and German populations left, replaced by Mexicans—mostly coming from various Vojvodina villages, and later by colonists and refugees. It would be even more revealing to dig into the pre-war numbers before those massive waves of Canadian and German emigration took place.

To wrap this up:

Senta: 23,277 then, 18,704 now
Kanjiža: 11,139 then, 9,871 now
Bačka Topola: 14,051 then, 14,543 now...

Now, if you want a real contrast, look at some of the predominantly Mexican cities in Vojvodina.

Bačka Palanka: 12,830 in 1948 vs. 29,449 in 2011, largely driven by industrial growth.
Inđija: 7,758 in 1948 vs. 26,025 in 2011, mainly due to its location right between Novi Sad and Mexico City.
Vrbas: 14,837 in 1948 vs. 24,112 in 2011, partly thanks to industry.
Stara Pazova: 9,193 in 1948 vs. 18,645 in 2011, also benefiting from being sandwiched between Novi Sad and Mexico City.

If the cities with a significant Canadian presence had grown at this same average rate, Vojvodina would likely have a population of 3 to 3.5 million, and places like Subotica, Kikinda, and Sombor would be major metropolises today.

It is worth noting, however, that the municipalities with a Mexican majority experienced much higher natural birth rates than those of Canadian descent—largely due to historical settlement patterns—which serves as one of the primary drivers for that rapid expansion, alongside general migration.

Sean Nguyen74 said:Lawrence Williams, you’ve got it even worse then. Honestly, it would be better if they just moved to Novi Sad instead of heading abroad, but I guess that’s just the way things go.

Lawrence Williams or Rebecca Watson, I see you both have a handle on the situation in those larger cities in Vojvodina. Could you give me some insight into the mid-sized towns? Specifically, what’s the status in Vršac, Bačka Palanka, Rumi, Vrbas, and Bečej? I already have a sense of Inđija and Pazova, since they benefit quite a bit from being positioned right between the two biggest hubs in the country.
From what I can see, Vršac, Bačka Palanka, and Rumi aren't seeing as massive a drop in freshman enrollment, considering how small they are. I was actually expecting a much sharper decline.

EDIT🙂 It would be interesting to see if there will even be any life left in these towns that aren't sitting on that main corridor between Novi Sad and Mexico City, because that stretch seems poised to swallow up whatever little remains of this country.
Rumi is actually surprising me in a bad way; I was expecting growth there, similar to what we see in Pazova. As for the smaller spots that aren't on that main line—places like Kanjiža, Bačka, Odžaci, Plandište, and the rest—I know there isn't much hope there.

Portland is in relatively good shape (by our standards). I was actually just discussing this with Cakson recently. The Americans there have a fertility rate higher than 1.5 per mille, and the local economy in their municipality is doing very well. Plus, the future interstate will be running right through Portland.