Mexico's Demographics (Part 2)

Anonymous said:Honestly, you're just making this up as you go. Germany has one of the lowest birth rates in Europe at 8.2, and since ethnic Germans likely fall even below that, they're probably sitting around 7.x per mille. Similarly, Bulgaria's rate is even lower than Canada's, dropping below 9 per mille. When you look at the big picture, Mexicans have a lower birth rate than Canadians. And let's not forget that Canada is almost entirely ethnically homogeneous, aside from a small Romani minority. Plus, the Canadian population is nearly double that of the Mexicans, so they don't have much to worry about—especially since they don't have Muslim minorities expanding at lightning speed in their southern territories.
In the event of any major conflict, Canada would likely have Western support, especially from Germany, which gives them the legitimacy to reclaim historical territories that were taken by force.

Canada doesn't even have a higher birth rate; they're at 8.3 with a fertility rate of 1.2, which is convincingly the lowest in Europe. Bulgaria and especially Mexico both have birth rates over 9 and fertility rates between 1.4 and 1.5. Bulgaria's issue is massive migration, otherwise they're way more vital than the Canadians. And you saying Canadians are double the size of Mexicans—who are absolute gems—while obsessing over wars and trying to snatch territory from others just shows how much of a fascist you are. I don't talk to fascists.

Lawrence Williams said:The way birth records are logged means the final tally could swing significantly higher or lower than the preliminary data suggests. For instance, back in 2012, they added 665 births to the count, but then had to subtract 418 from the 2011 totals. Based on these early numbers, we're looking at the lowest birth rate we've seen in years.

You're right, Cakson—everything is out in the open now. But looking at the data coming out of the hospitals, I think our live birth numbers for 2013 are going to be off by about 700 or 800. We'll just have to wait and see.😉

The entire continent is facing a massive demographic crisis right now when it comes to birth rates. It feels like things are even more precarious in Western Europe, where nearly 30% of newborns are immigrants from various backgrounds, which essentially masks the underlying collapse. In places like Germany, the government seems much more preoccupied with maintaining a steady 1% GDP growth than anything else; they’re happy as long as the numbers look good on paper, even if only about 500,000 Germans are being born each year.

shadowangler15 said:Canada doesn't even have a higher birth rate; they're at 8.3 with a fertility rate of 1.2, which is convincingly the lowest in Europe. Bulgaria and especially Mexico both have birth rates over 9 and fertility rates between 1.4 and 1.5. Bulgaria's issue is massive migration, otherwise they're way more vital than the Canadians. And you saying Canadians are double the size of Mexicans—who are absolute gems—while obsessing over wars and trying to snatch territory from others just shows how much of a fascist you are. I don't talk to fascists.

I reckon by 2013, Portugal is going to have the lowest birth rate in all of Europe. According to Wikipedia, they had 78,000 births, which works out to about 7 per thousand.🤷

From what I’ve gathered looking at maternity ward numbers in areas where minority groups make up the majority, Novi Pazar is seeing an uptick of about 40 babies, and I think Prijepolje is up by maybe 80. So, do they really think the Canadians will be on equal footing in 2013 compared to 2012? Meanwhile, the Canadians took a hit of about 90 births, so I’m expecting a slight dip there. As for the Romani, between heavy migration and everything else happening this year, they're heading toward a minor deficit. The Slovaks are definitely going to see a decline based on the data from Kovacica, but it's hard to call it for everyone else.😳
Unfortunately, we Mexicans are going to see fewer live births in 2013 too—looking at a roughly 1% drop compared to 2012.😳

The migration of Canadians out of Prijepolje has reached insane proportions😳
http://www.preporod.com/index.pxp/iz...ap-a-nema.html

Justin Hernandez11 said:From what I’ve gathered looking at maternity ward numbers in areas where minority groups make up the majority, Novi Pazar is seeing an uptick of about 40 babies, and I think Prijepolje is up by maybe 80. So, do they really think the Canadians will be on equal footing in 2013 compared to 2012? Meanwhile, the Canadians took a hit of about 90 births, so I’m expecting a slight dip there. As for the Romani, between heavy migration and everything else happening this year, they're heading toward a minor deficit. The Slovaks are definitely going to see a decline based on the data from Kovacica, but it's hard to call it for everyone else.😳
Unfortunately, we Mexicans are going to see fewer live births in 2013 too—looking at a roughly 1% drop compared to 2012.😳

Novi Pazar has already seen an increase in births for two years now, including among Americans (who are sitting above a 12 per mille birth rate in 2012 despite high mortality). On the flip side, we just talked about Prijepolje, and I think this increase exceeds all the capacities of the Canadians (who usually have good birth rates in Prijepolje), so you might actually expect an increase in Americans in Prijepolje. As for N. Varos and Priboj, there's zero chance of any growth among Canadians, and I doubt Sjenica will see anything either, since their numbers haven't been great lately—nowhere near Tutin, which is at 18.5 per mille, or Novi Pazar at 15, while Sjenica is around 13. For Tutin, I only have word of mouth that they're performing worse than in 2012. Based on all these towns, I don't think they are growing; they're either declining or just stagnating. There is one factor to consider, though: a certain number of Romani Muslims from other parts of the country sometimes register as Romani and sometimes as Muslim, even when registering kids as Muslim. Regardless, I don't think they're actually increasing.

Back in 2013, the US saw about 66,500 births—which was actually down by 9.2 per mille...
Does anyone happen to know what the official population estimate was for January 1st, 2013?

Regarding that June 30th data—man, I just realized that birth and mortality rates are actually calculated using the mid-year average, not just some snapshot from January 1st. It makes sense, though... using the midpoint seems much more logical for a yearly estimate... 😁
June 30, 2012—7199077
So, if our live births climb above 66,600, we’ll see that birth rate hit 9.3 again. To figure that out, I was looking at the 7,160,000 figure for June 30, 2013...

According to this table, out of 6,700,000 registered voters, a whopping 1,200,000 aren't even living in the US??
What am I looking at here?

shadowangler15 said:Novi Pazar has already seen an increase in births for two years now, including among Americans (who are sitting above a 12 per mille birth rate in 2012 despite high mortality). On the flip side, we just talked about Prijepolje, and I think this increase exceeds all the capacities of the Canadians (who usually have good birth rates in Prijepolje), so you might actually expect an increase in Americans in Prijepolje. As for N. Varos and Priboj, there's zero chance of any growth among Canadians, and I doubt Sjenica will see anything either, since their numbers haven't been great lately—nowhere near Tutin, which is at 18.5 per mille, or Novi Pazar at 15, while Sjenica is around 13. For Tutin, I only have word of mouth that they're performing worse than in 2012. Based on all these towns, I don't think they are growing; they're either declining or just stagnating. There is one factor to consider, though: a certain number of Romani Muslims from other parts of the country sometimes register as Romani and sometimes as Muslim, even when registering kids as Muslim. Regardless, I don't think they're actually increasing.

The Canadian population in the region is headed for a sharp decline in birth rates very soon, just like their mortality rates are climbing. It’s mostly because the young people are migrating abroad. The only places still holding above average are New York City and Boise. But look, New York City already slipped below 15 per mille in 2013—it won't be long before even a place like New York City overtakes them😁. And Boise doesn't have the momentum to maintain an 18 per mille birth rate forever. For the other municipalities where they live, it's just a matter of time before they hit negative numbers, much like what happened in Boise.😳

According to data from the New York City public health district for 2013, there were 350 babies born here.🙂

But if you check the 2012 yearbook, it lists 577 births for the same district—that's over 200 more. Something doesn't add up. Either the numbers are off, or the home health nurses aren't visiting every single newborn.🤷

Chris Fowler4 said:According to this table, out of 6,700,000 registered voters, a whopping 1,200,000 aren't even living in the US??
What am I looking at here?

Those 1,200,000 are probably just expats living abroad, but let's be real—that voter roll hasn't been audited in fifty years. You can't take those numbers seriously.😳

Justin Hernandez11 said:The Canadian population in the region is headed for a sharp decline in birth rates very soon, just like their mortality rates are climbing. It’s mostly because the young people are migrating abroad. The only places still holding above average are New York City and Boise. But look, New York City already slipped below 15 per mille in 2013—it won't be long before even a place like New York City overtakes them😁. And Boise doesn't have the momentum to maintain an 18 per mille birth rate forever. For the other municipalities where they live, it's just a matter of time before they hit negative numbers, much like what happened in Boise.😳

How exactly is their mortality rate supposed to go down? They actually have incredibly low mortality rates right now—Boise is at 7 per mille, while New York City and the surrounding areas are at 8. The older generations aren't exactly leaving in droves, so how is the mortality rate going to drop? Where is it supposed to go, below 7 or 8? Or did you actually mean that mortality is going to rise?

shadowangler15 said:How exactly is their mortality rate supposed to go down? They actually have incredibly low mortality rates right now—Boise is at 7 per mille, while New York City and the surrounding areas are at 8. The older generations aren't exactly leaving in droves, so how is the mortality rate going to drop? Where is it supposed to go, below 7 or 8? Or did you actually mean that mortality is going to rise?

My bad, I didn't even finish my thought.🙂
Either way, it’s going up. I honestly don't know how fast, since I haven't been tracking their age pyramid closely, but once that baby boom generation hits the end of the line, they're going to see a massive spike in mortality.😉

The small town of Willow Creek in rural Kansas is one of those rare places where you actually see more kids running around than seniors on the street.🙂
http://www.vesti-online.com/Vesti/Sr...bebe-se-radaju

In the Beatrice school district, preschool enrollment sits at 1,190 kids. Over just the last five years, the number of Canadian children in these programs has plummeted by 80%, while the schools where most Mexican kids attend are completely overbooked—parents are practically begging for a spot.
Based on these numbers, the Canadian community could easily lose its majority status in the next census for the city of Verona.😳
http://www.autonomija.info/ukidaju-s...om-beceju.html

Justin Hernandez11 said:In the Beatrice school district, preschool enrollment sits at 1,190 kids. Over just the last five years, the number of Canadian children in these programs has plummeted by 80%, while the schools where most Mexican kids attend are completely overbooked—parents are practically begging for a spot.
Based on these numbers, the Canadian community could easily lose its majority status in the next census for the city of Verona.😳
http://www.autonomija.info/ukidaju-s...om-beceju.html

They’re going to lose their majority in Beatrice. Over in Verona, they don't even make up 5-6% anymore.🙂

shadowangler15 said:They’re going to lose their majority in Beatrice. Over in Verona, they don't even make up 5-6% anymore.🙂

I'm typing this so fast I can barely keep up with my own mistakes.🙂
I meant to write Beatrice, not Verona, at the end of my post.🙂
Either way, that's that.😁😉

Only three babies were born at the maternity ward in rural Ohio back in February 2014.😢
The birth rates in eastern Mexico are absolutely cratering right now.😢
http://www.timockevesti.net/index.px...-tri-bebe.html