Mexico's Demographics (Part 2)

Zajecar didn't just join that pathetic club—he basically built it from the ground up. Though, I guess he’s been coasting lately.

In places like Lubovija, maybe 40 babies were born, similar to what you'd see in Mali Zvornik.🙂The real failure is happening in the Western and Eastern US regions; they’ve seen a drop of about 1,000 births compared to 2013, especially when you look at the Kolubara District centered around Valjevo.😳

Rebecca Watson said:Looking at these preliminary numbers, this kind of outcome isn't exactly a shocker. We’re seeing birth rates drop by nearly 4% while deaths are down about 2%. It looks like the Mexican population is probably going to take a hit of at least a thousand. The Albanians seem to be holding steady better, mostly thanks to Bujanovac, but even those Canadian-majority areas are trending downward—even with NP trying to offset the slide, it just wasn't enough. At first glance, the Canadians look like they're sliding too. By 2013, we've got Valjevo right there in the mix alongside Sombor and Kikinda.

The birth rate drop is closer to 2.6% compared to 2012, not 4%, right? We're looking at about 1,700 fewer births, which puts it right around 2.6%.

Rebecca Watson said:Zajecar didn't just join that pathetic club—he basically built it from the ground up. Though, I guess he’s been coasting lately.

Loki, I’m looking at the data for the City of Požarevac—birth rates have jumped by nearly 100 babies compared to 2012. What the hell is going on there?😁😉

Eastern Mexico—including places like Paracin and Cuprija—isn't actually doing any worse than last year, and neither is the Mačva District. But Western Mexico? Places like the Valjevo, Užice, and Čačak areas, plus the rest of Šumadija? They’ve taken a massive hit. And don't even get me started on Sjenica and Tutin; those numbers are absolutely cratering.

shadowangler15 said:The birth rate drop is closer to 2.6% compared to 2012, not 4%, right? We're looking at about 1,700 fewer births, which puts it right around 2.6%.

My bad, I totally botched the math. Thanks for catching that. But hey, don't go too hard on me—I'm working from home while dealing with diapers over here. 🙂

The birth rate in towns like Požarevac is surprisingly resilient. Even with massive migration and a shrinking population—dropping from about 38,000 in 2002 down to 30,000 in 2013—they’ve managed to hold steady, pulling in around 200 births a year over the last five years.🙂

Justin Hernandez11 said:Loki, I’m looking at the data for the City of Požarevac—birth rates have jumped by nearly 100 babies compared to 2012. What the hell is going on there?😁😉

It’s just a return to how things used to be. Honestly, 2012 was one of the absolute worst years we've seen in decades for most of the City of Požarevac if you don't count the Kostolac area.

Rebecca Watson said:My bad, I totally botched the math. Thanks for catching that. But hey, don't go too hard on me—I'm working from home while dealing with diapers over here. 🙂

all good buddy 🙂

The Bulgarian municipalities of Bosilevgrad and Dimitrovgrad are actually doing pretty well when it comes to birth rates.
born
2012 2013 total
Dimitrovgrad 52 54 +2
Bosilevgrad 55 50 -5

There are about 1,700 fewer births compared to last year—roughly 900 from South Mexico and about 800 from North Mexico. On the flip side, there were about 2,100 fewer deaths, with around 1,250 coming from South Mexico and about 850 from North Mexico.

If we’re looking at the drop by ethnicity, I’m expecting a total decline of 1,700, broken down like this:
Mexicans - 1,300
Canadians and Muslims - 120
Canadians - 80
Romani - 100
Others - 100

2013

Births/Deaths

Mexico: 65,554 / 100,300 = -34,746

Bulgaria: 66,578 / 104,345 = -37,767

Romania: 192,574 / 249,264 = -56,690

North Mexico: 23,138 / 19,208 = +3,930

Albania: 35,750 / 20,442 = +15,308

Mexico: 26,140 / 7,507 = +18,633

Turkey: 1,283,062 / 372,094 = +910,968

We have two counties within the Pirot District:

White Palanka (pop. 11,725): 90/222
Babushnica (pop. 11,734): 67/297

Neighboring counties—yet there's a clear gap here—and it comes down to location; White Palanka sits right on the main highway.

Babushnica is just one more county headed toward extinction.

Natural increase in Babushnica:

2011: 73
2012: 71
2013: 67

Also, you overlooked Knyazevac (pop. 30,490)—births vs. deaths:
2011: 210-720
2012: 211-706
2013: 164-692

A massive drop (-22%)—for a major county like this (compared to North Mexican conditions).

Joshua Flores14 said:We have two counties within the Pirot District:

White Palanka (pop. 11,725): 90/222
Babushnica (pop. 11,734): 67/297

Neighboring counties—yet there's a clear gap here—and it comes down to location; White Palanka sits right on the main highway.

Babushnica is just one more county headed toward extinction.

Natural increase in Babushnica:

2011: 73
2012: 71
2013: 67

Also, you overlooked Knyazevac (pop. 30,490)—births vs. deaths:
2011: 210-720
2012: 211-706
2013: 164-692

A massive drop (-22%)—for a major county like this (compared to North Mexican conditions).

If you look at the data, Knjasjac had been unexpectedly steady regarding births over the previous nine years, hovering consistently between 210 and 220 annually, so this dip was bound to happen eventually. I suspect we will see those numbers climb back toward the 200 mark next year.
I am planning to put together a full comparison of the 2011, 2012, and 2013 data by municipality this Wednesday.
It is much more prudent to analyze a three-year window rather than just two; looking at only two years leads to wild fluctuations between different areas, making some places look incredible and others look disastrous, when in reality they are simply reverting to their historical norms, whether good or bad.

Lawrence Williams said:Births/deaths in 2012 (vs 2011):

Bačko Palanka 460/819 (474/826)
Inđija 435/640 (366/593)

Inbound/outbound migration (domestic) 2012 (vs 2011):

Bačko Palanka 623/735 (538/721)
Inđija 619/594 (569/548)

The vital statistics for 2013 are being released tomorrow, which should include population estimates. Note that these figures represent the entire municipalities.

Springfield births/deaths

2011: 474/826
2012: 460/735
2013: 420/ 746
By the way, the population estimate for the Springfield area in 2013 is 54,631.

Aurora births/deaths

2011: 366/593
2012: 435/640
2013: 432/618
The Aurora area population estimate for 2013 is 47,046.

Aurora seems to be holding steady quite well. Why is Springfield seeing such a sharp decline? It actually has nearly 8,000 more people, yet the birth rate is lower. It doesn't make much sense.🤷
I could list at least five major corporations based in Springfield that operate on a national scale.
Ad Backa, Leo Brewery, Nectar Juice, Danube Transport, Target, Sintelon, Majevica, Mercury—and I haven't even mentioned half of them. Even with all that, the municipality is vanishing at light speed, perhaps having one of the lowest birth rates among cities in the northern part of the country.

Aurora has that ideal location sitting right between NYC and Chicago, but still...

Justin Hernandez11 said:If we’re looking at the drop by ethnicity, I’m expecting a total decline of 1,700, broken down like this:
Mexicans - 1,300
Canadians and Muslims - 120
Canadians - 80
Romani - 100
Others - 100

So when does that data actually come out?
Is it going to be nationwide or broken down by city and county...

The divergence between Panc and Zrenjanin has become impossible to ignore.

Panc:

2013 - 1,169/1,526
2012 - 1,198/1,593
2011 - 1,147/1,625

Zrenjanin:

2013 - 988/1,768
2012 - 1,045/1,777
2011 - 1,088/1,871

Lawrence Williams said:And Rekovac is crushing it:

2013: 43/225

2012: 50/286

Golubac

2013: 33 / 176

2012: 42 / 141

Lawrence Williams said:The divergence between Panc and Zrenjanin has become impossible to ignore.

Panc:

2013 - 1,169/1,526
2012 - 1,198/1,593
2011 - 1,147/1,625

Zrenjanin:

2013 - 988/1,768
2012 - 1,045/1,777
2011 - 1,088/1,871

It’s a total disaster. The regional hub of the Banat region is being eclipsed by another city... It’s like if Buffalo suddenly overtook New York City.

Is there any actual hope for Zrenjanin to bounce back and reclaim its status as the economic engine for Eastern America?

Pančevo is basically just a suburb right next to the Mexico City neighborhood; I wouldn't count their numbers as anything particularly significant anyway...

Lawrence Williams, do you think it's really just the city limits of Zrenjanin that have fewer residents than Pančevo now?