Russia's invasion of Ukraine: Part 5

Daniel Ward87 said:Exactly, that’s my point. It’s not just about stopping the fighting; it’s about how you wrap it up. You're eventually going to have to sit down at a table with Russia to negotiate. That's probably why there's all this pressure on Zelenskyy to either get the job done quickly or make sure this doesn't drag on forever—because nobody actually benefits from a never-ending conflict. Sure, Putin is Putin, but he won't be in charge forever, and the world still has to live with Russia, trade with them, and coexist.

What matters right now is how Ukrainians handle POWs and people who aren't on their side in liberated areas. Most importantly, they shouldn't move so fast during the liberation that they end up with zero leverage when it comes time to actually talk.

Let them get kicked out of Ukraine entirely first, then they can negotiate all they want.

Anyway... it's weird how nobody's even mentioning that sellout mayor from Izyum. He basically just sat on his hands when it came to the UA defense, and that lack of backbone is exactly what let the city fall in the first place...

Daniel Ward87 said:Exactly, that’s my point. It’s not just about stopping the fighting; it’s about how you wrap it up. You're eventually going to have to sit down at a table with Russia to negotiate. That's probably why there's all this pressure on Zelenskyy to either get the job done quickly or make sure this doesn't drag on forever—because nobody actually benefits from a never-ending conflict. Sure, Putin is Putin, but he won't be in charge forever, and the world still has to live with Russia, trade with them, and coexist.

What matters right now is how Ukrainians handle POWs and people who aren't on their side in liberated areas. Most importantly, they shouldn't move so fast during the liberation that they end up with zero leverage when it comes time to actually talk.

Negotiations are coming, period. The US isn't going to let Russia be backed into a corner with absolutely no way out, mainly because that's a fast track to a nuclear nightmare. They might end up letting them keep Crimea, but that’s likely the absolute limit—especially since Germany and France will probably be pushing hard for that specific compromise. Meanwhile, the US would likely accept a deal like that because it's essentially a win-win situation. And Ukraine? They'll likely have to accept it, simply because they won't have much choice once the West starts applying the pressure.

Drew Booth60 said:Negotiations are coming, period. The US isn't going to let Russia be backed into a corner with absolutely no way out, mainly because that's a fast track to a nuclear nightmare. They might end up letting them keep Crimea, but that’s likely the absolute limit—especially since Germany and France will probably be pushing hard for that specific compromise. Meanwhile, the US would likely accept a deal like that because it's essentially a win-win situation. And Ukraine? They'll likely have to accept it, simply because they won't have much choice once the West starts applying the pressure.

Regarding Crimea, maybe there's an option for some sort of autonomy or a condominium arrangement—some kind of recipe that grants Ukraine at least a semblance of sovereignty over the territory, even if it's mostly just formal.
Russia will stay squeezed under sanctions until they finally cave to a compromise like that, and once this whole crisis blows over, the Russians won't have anyone left to sell their gas to without selling it for pennies on the dollar—and even then, they'll probably be paying a tax to fund the rebuilding of Ukraine.

hollowdriver13 said:Anyway... it's weird how nobody's even mentioning that sellout mayor from Izyum. He basically just sat on his hands when it came to the UA defense, and that lack of backbone is exactly what let the city fall in the first place...

Pretty sure that wasn't even the mayor, just some local councilman.

As far as I can tell from what the mayor posted online, the city is actually liberated.

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/20...nteroffensive/

Ukrainian Armed Forces in the village of Kharkiv, near Buhaivki
https://twitter.com/illya_ayzin/stat...52960847171584

Ukrainian Armed Forces in Kozach Lopan
View on twitter

Ukrainian Armed Forces in the town of Velyky Burlok, Kharkiv region
View on twitter

Ukrainian Armed Forces near Dovrichn
https://twitter.com/arslon_xudosi/st...59766092828672

The Ukrainian flag raised in Yaremivka, Kharkiv region

Ukrainian Armed Forces have reached the outskirts of Hoptivka
https://twitter.com/Illya_Ayzin/stat...78018730663936

The Kharkiv region is back under Ukrainian control 🙂 🎉

Today was a damn good day, fellas!

What do you guys think—are the Ukrainians going to go all-in on Luhansk and Donetsk? If the Russians are retreating this fast, maybe it means they’re losing interest and just letting those regions slip away, which could be a sign they're handing them back to the Ukrainians. Since the Ukrainians used HIMARS to hit their ammo dumps and wrecked so much gear, basically gutting their logistics entirely, those territories might end up facing a fate similar to what happened in Knin.

As for Crimea, I'm not so sure the Ukrainians can just grab it right now. It feels more like a political chess move than a purely military one.

Anyone got the scoop on captured gear or POWs?
This wasn't some tactical repositioning for a big push—this was a straight-up collapse.

The Russians really just need to desert and head home; this whole war is a joke for them.

Daniel Ward87 said:What do you guys think—are the Ukrainians going to go all-in on Luhansk and Donetsk? If the Russians are retreating this fast, maybe it means they’re losing interest and just letting those regions slip away, which could be a sign they're handing them back to the Ukrainians. Since the Ukrainians used HIMARS to hit their ammo dumps and wrecked so much gear, basically gutting their logistics entirely, those territories might end up facing a fate similar to what happened in Knin.

As for Crimea, I'm not so sure the Ukrainians can just grab it right now. It feels more like a political chess move than a purely military one.

If they act intelligently—as they have demonstrated thus far—success depends entirely on whether the Russians commit a major blunder while organizing their defenses. If a clear opening presents itself, they will strike. If the cost of an assault appears too high, they’ll pivot to a "soft" target elsewhere. At least for now, the Ukrainians have plenty of options on the map. The Americans seem to possess a crystal ball that is functioning quite effectively, allowing them to exploit enemy vulnerabilities to the maximum. Furthermore, it appears the enemy is struggling with internal instability and friction within their command structure. Ultimately, the objective should be removing Putin and his entire circle from power. Doing so would pave the way for serious negotiations regarding a full withdrawal from Ukraine, avoiding unnecessary bloodshed on both sides.

Intel and CNN on Telegram are reporting something new that I definitely didn't see coming, and it changes the whole vibe of this war:

The Russians have started targeting power plants, and word is most of Kharkiv is already without electricity or running water.
Kramatorsk is out of power too.
A thermal power plant in Kremenchuk took a hit.

��������⚡Arrivals were recorded at Kharkiv CHPP-5, which is one of the largest combined heat and power plants in Ukraine.

Just waiting for these reports to be verified.

Daniel Ward87 said:What do you guys think—are the Ukrainians going to go all-in on Luhansk and Donetsk? If the Russians are retreating this fast, maybe it means they’re losing interest and just letting those regions slip away, which could be a sign they're handing them back to the Ukrainians. Since the Ukrainians used HIMARS to hit their ammo dumps and wrecked so much gear, basically gutting their logistics entirely, those territories might end up facing a fate similar to what happened in Knin.

As for Crimea, I'm not so sure the Ukrainians can just grab it right now. It feels more like a political chess move than a purely military one.

I’m actually listening to reports right now—apparently, pro-Russian bloggers are claiming that the Ukrainians are massing troops specifically to strike toward Mariupol, aiming to sever the land bridge to Crimea.

He’s just relaying what those Russian bloggers are saying.🤔 🤔

lp

Daniel Ward87 said:What do you guys think—are the Ukrainians going to go all-in on Luhansk and Donetsk? If the Russians are retreating this fast, maybe it means they’re losing interest and just letting those regions slip away, which could be a sign they're handing them back to the Ukrainians. Since the Ukrainians used HIMARS to hit their ammo dumps and wrecked so much gear, basically gutting their logistics entirely, those territories might end up facing a fate similar to what happened in Knin.

As for Crimea, I'm not so sure the Ukrainians can just grab it right now. It feels more like a political chess move than a purely military one.

They should probably push toward the Donbas, though I suppose doing that might just force the Russians to dump all their remaining reserves and reinforcements into that area instead.

Then, maybe, strike from the Zaporizhzhia direction toward Tokmak and Melitopol. If that Russian front collapses, they might have a clear path toward the Black Sea and Crimea... and if that happens, the Russians in the Kherson region would be cut off, unless they decide to start retreating from Kherson right at the start of this Zaporizhzhia offensive...

I’m not entirely sure the Ukrainians can actually take Crimea right now. It feels like more of a political issue than just a purely military one, I guess.

Taking Crimea would be incredibly difficult. You'd have to cross bridges that the Russians would likely just blow up... and while the northern part of Crimea is mostly flat plains, it turns into mountains as you move south...
And then there's the political side of things too...

God, I really hope this isn't just some calculated move by Putin.
Who even knows what kind of mess we're looking at next after all this

Timothy Nelson5 said:They should probably push toward the Donbas, though I suppose doing that might just force the Russians to dump all their remaining reserves and reinforcements into that area instead.

Then, maybe, strike from the Zaporizhzhia direction toward Tokmak and Melitopol. If that Russian front collapses, they might have a clear path toward the Black Sea and Crimea... and if that happens, the Russians in the Kherson region would be cut off, unless they decide to start retreating from Kherson right at the start of this Zaporizhzhia offensive...

I’m not entirely sure the Ukrainians can actually take Crimea right now. It feels like more of a political issue than just a purely military one, I guess.

Taking Crimea would be incredibly difficult. You'd have to cross bridges that the Russians would likely just blow up... and while the northern part of Crimea is mostly flat plains, it turns into mountains as you move south...
And then there's the political side of things too...

Just hit that new bridge in a few spots and watch the panic set in.
Remember those tourists from this past summer?

.

If someone manages to completely sever Crimea from Russia using anti-ship missiles—then seizing it becomes a relatively straightforward task. At that point, it’s just a matter of patience and staying systematic. Once that happens, Crimea transforms into nothing more than a massive trap for anyone foolish enough to think they can hold their ground.

wanderingmaker3 said:Intel and CNN on Telegram are reporting something new that I definitely didn't see coming, and it changes the whole vibe of this war:

The Russians have started targeting power plants, and word is most of Kharkiv is already without electricity or running water.
Kramatorsk is out of power too.
A thermal power plant in Kremenchuk took a hit.

��������⚡Arrivals were recorded at Kharkiv CHPP-5, which is one of the largest combined heat and power plants in Ukraine.

Just waiting for these reports to be verified.

Yes, it looks like they've started a brutal campaign using strategic weapons against the Ukrainian infrastructure.

This could be the signal that the actual conflict is finally beginning. Up until now, everything has felt like a staged performance; the radio, TV, internet, power grids, trains, bridges, and plants have all continued to operate as if nothing were happening.

I just caught a report on the news that Pushilin was kidnapped and taken to Russia.
I haven't been able to find any confirmation elsewhere, so please take this with a grain of salt.

Thomas Nelson25 said:Anyone got the scoop on captured gear or POWs?
This wasn't some tactical repositioning for a big push—this was a straight-up collapse.

The Russians really just need to desert and head home; this whole war is a joke for them.

Based strictly on what we can see in the footage, they lost
roughly 50 tanks, 120 armored vehicles, 20 self-propelled guns, and 10 APCs (most were captured, while a smaller chunk was destroyed)
As for captured Russians, the videos only show about a hundred or so
but you can bet that number is actually much higher since they didn't film and upload every single one.

Daniel Ward87 said:What do you guys think—are the Ukrainians going to go all-in on Luhansk and Donetsk? If the Russians are retreating this fast, maybe it means they’re losing interest and just letting those regions slip away, which could be a sign they're handing them back to the Ukrainians. Since the Ukrainians used HIMARS to hit their ammo dumps and wrecked so much gear, basically gutting their logistics entirely, those territories might end up facing a fate similar to what happened in Knin.

As for Crimea, I'm not so sure the Ukrainians can just grab it right now. It feels more like a political chess move than a purely military one.

The next move is likely Mariupol (or Melitopol), mostly heading toward the Black Sea.