Russia's invasion of Ukraine: Part 5

Maybe it’s just selective reporting, but I haven't really seen much of the Ukrainian flag in the news lately. Instead, it seems to be all icons of Putin, Draz, and some sort of "holy light" on the other side. 🤣

And here I was thinking Kusturica’s stuff and these portrayals were supposed to be this artistic, psychedelic, ironic take on the region—not some straight documentary. 🤣

But the main thing is that Milojko sees those Ukrainian flags; I suppose the Americans will probably start noticing them soon enough too.

Nancy Gomez26 said:He might avoid the nuclear option, but when it comes to assessing his judgment, I don't trust Putin's mental stability. Chemical warfare is a much more volatile double-edged sword, especially when handled by amateurs. We have seen just about everything from the Russians in this war; we shouldn't be surprised by their next "brilliant" move.
Such a step would inevitably trigger further escalation, pushing the conflict onto a whole new level. Personally, I find it hard to believe the Russians actually possess the will to escalate any further.

Since he was targeting people holding the codes, the nuclear option is definitely on the table. Everything hinges on whether he can cling to power long enough.

It's his last-ditch effort for leverage at the negotiating table. If they dropped something on Ukraine, the war would end because no superpower is going to put a bullseye on their own soil just to fight a war where, officially, only Ukrainians and Russians are involved.

The only way they'd strike directly is against the UK or the US West Coast, and that’s not happening.

In that scenario, the war stops, Russia grabs Crimea, pulls out of the rest of Ukraine, and spins the whole thing as a win by claiming Crimea—giving them control over the Black Sea and access to the Mediterranean and Africa.

Noah Sullivan said:That affinity was quite abstract—a realm of shared delusions, really—and remained largely Platonic until recently, which is noted by the New York Times (see below). More specifically, the devotee of Dugin had a foothold in a well-funded think tank known as the Nexus Institute: https://nexus-instituut.nl/

In fact, in this profile of Dugin from the New York Times,
nytimes.com/who-is-the-father-of-fascism-with-a-russian-soul-alexander-dugin-guru-of-dark-reactions
it mentions the following (which I have also read elsewhere, along with the fact that Dugin was ousted from Moscow State University back in 2014—you can check Wikipedia for that; now, here is the excerpt from the linked New York Times article):

...
A more granular political analysis would reveal that Dugin does not possess nearly as much influence over the highest levels of Russian policy as the simplifying narrative suggests—the one claiming everything happening in the world's largest nation must be intimately tied to Vladimir Putin. Not a single meeting between the two has been recorded in recent weeks among the most prominent Russians, nor has there even been a mere mention of Dugin's name by Putin, aside from the posthumous awarding of the Order of Bravery to the fallen Darija. By signaling to the far-right fringes and issuing a symbolic call for national unity by describing a young extreme nationalist as the "true Russian heart," Putin is clearly demonstrating how internal enemies—those advocating for even more aggressive policies, regressive social values, and harsher militarization—are exactly what he needs right now. ...

It is curious that, contrary to this bold assertion, Dugin did indeed engage in conversation with the former, yet simultaneously current, US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken!
Someone clearly spared no expense, time, or capital to organize this peculiar discussion before a stadium full of enthusiasts:

Nexus Institute — a discussion featuring some rather "interesting" participants. For instance, we have the self-proclaimed former Islamic scholar Nelofer Pazira, who seems to be championing both Afghanistan and her current home, Canada:
Aleksandr Dugin, Antony Blinken, Nelofer Pazira and Leon Wieseltier (EDIT: plus a few others—honestly, I’m not sure why they aren't listed)
regarding military intervention, Russia versus the West, populism, and Afghanistan. You can find the full video of the debate here: https://nexus-instituut.nl/en/activi...ast-revolution

Who actually stands to benefit from "popularizing" Dugin like this—especially in the West, of all places? Who finds it profitable to artificially inflate Dugin's importance for an American audience? It seems SOMEONE has also invested quite a bit of money and effort into other similar debates—take, for example, Dugin vs. Bernard-Henri Lévy:

... and if you want a more comprehensive look at the Nexus Institute's activities, check this out: https://nexus-instituut.nl/en/activi...tain-revisited

Correction of a slip of the tongue: ... Dugin has spoken with a former Deputy who is also the current U.S. Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken! ...

(He served as a Deputy to John Kerry during the latter half of the Obama mandate.)

Kevin Murphy7 said:Since he was targeting people holding the codes, the nuclear option is definitely on the table. Everything hinges on whether he can cling to power long enough.

It's his last-ditch effort for leverage at the negotiating table. If they dropped something on Ukraine, the war would end because no superpower is going to put a bullseye on their own soil just to fight a war where, officially, only Ukrainians and Russians are involved.

The only way they'd strike directly is against the UK or the US West Coast, and that’s not happening.

In that scenario, the war stops, Russia grabs Crimea, pulls out of the rest of Ukraine, and spins the whole thing as a win by claiming Crimea—giving them control over the Black Sea and access to the Mediterranean and Africa.

Total children's stories. Especially that last ridiculous gem about how Crimea controls access to the Mediterranean. Like, how exactly are people supposed to bypass the Dardanelles now? Makes no sense.

You're wasting your breath. ☕

bluemason3 said:Maybe it’s just selective reporting, but I haven't really seen much of the Ukrainian flag in the news lately. Instead, it seems to be all icons of Putin, Draz, and some sort of "holy light" on the other side. 🤣

And here I was thinking Kusturica’s stuff and these portrayals were supposed to be this artistic, psychedelic, ironic take on the region—not some straight documentary. 🤣

Magical realism—there's zero irony involved there.

Kevin Murphy7 said:Since he was targeting people holding the codes, the nuclear option is definitely on the table. Everything hinges on whether he can cling to power long enough.

It's his last-ditch effort for leverage at the negotiating table. If they dropped something on Ukraine, the war would end because no superpower is going to put a bullseye on their own soil just to fight a war where, officially, only Ukrainians and Russians are involved.

The only way they'd strike directly is against the UK or the US West Coast, and that’s not happening.

In that scenario, the war stops, Russia grabs Crimea, pulls out of the rest of Ukraine, and spins the whole thing as a win by claiming Crimea—giving them control over the Black Sea and access to the Mediterranean and Africa.

If Vladimir Putin decides to deploy nuclear weapons in this conflict, he’ll be painting a massive target on his own back first and foremost. He understands that reality perfectly well. All this "passing mention" regarding a "final solution" is nothing more than theater designed for a domestic audience. Trying to intimidate the world with such threats is a hollow exercise—it makes no sense to attempt to scare people who are already dying daily to defend their homeland, or to rattle an alliance shielded by the full weight of NATO.

Alexander Lukashenko just claimed that "Ukraine is currently assembling forces to topple the current government in Belarus" 🤦
View on twitter

Christian Torres3 said:Total children's stories. Especially that last ridiculous gem about how Crimea controls access to the Mediterranean. Like, how exactly are people supposed to bypass the Dardanelles now? Makes no sense.

You're wasting your breath. ☕

just hanging out with the Sultan

Apparently, the Moscow Police raided an apartment and detained a woman just for... listening to the Ukrainian anthem in her own home! She was reported by her neighbor

I’m really enjoying this whole debate regarding the use of nuclear weapons...
It seems like everyone keeps bringing up how things are going downhill for the Russians...
But I think some people here are forgetting the fundamental reality that dropping a bomb on Ukraine is effectively the same thing as dropping one on Russia itself...

And why is everyone so obsessed with Crimea, acting like it’s this untouchable red line that just can't be crossed...
What happens if the Ukrainians decide they're just as fixated on Belgorod, wanting to pay a little visit to Mother Russia and finally march their boots right across that border...

Nancy Gomez26 said:If Vladimir Putin decides to deploy nuclear weapons in this conflict, he’ll be painting a massive target on his own back first and foremost. He understands that reality perfectly well. All this "passing mention" regarding a "final solution" is nothing more than theater designed for a domestic audience. Trying to intimidate the world with such threats is a hollow exercise—it makes no sense to attempt to scare people who are already dying daily to defend their homeland, or to rattle an alliance shielded by the full weight of NATO.

Back during the old USSR days, there were a few instances where officers actually refused to follow launch protocols, even when it looked like a full-scale nuclear strike against the USSR was imminent.
Caution won out, I guess.

I suspect there's a pretty high chance that even today, officers within the nuclear command might refuse to pull the trigger based on some impulsive whim from Vladimir Putin.
Using nukes unilaterally against Ukraine isn't exactly the same thing as defending Russia from a direct strike by another nuclear power.

George Mendoza3 said:I’m really enjoying this whole debate regarding the use of nuclear weapons...
It seems like everyone keeps bringing up how things are going downhill for the Russians...
But I think some people here are forgetting the fundamental reality that dropping a bomb on Ukraine is effectively the same thing as dropping one on Russia itself...

And why is everyone so obsessed with Crimea, acting like it’s this untouchable red line that just can't be crossed...
What happens if the Ukrainians decide they're just as fixated on Belgorod, wanting to pay a little visit to Mother Russia and finally march their boots right across that border...

If Russia decides to deploy some kind of tactical nuclear weapon against Ukraine just to blackmail them into an armistice, here’s what I imagine would happen:

1. Russia would instantly become a total global pariah.
Even the countries that have been quietly supporting them or staying silent would probably feel forced to distance themselves publicly.

2. We might see some sort of quiet ceasefire in Ukraine, but NATO and other Western powers would likely be moving straight into a mobilization phase.

3. Give it a month, and Ukraine would probably announce they have their own nuclear warheads and missile systems ready for delivery to Moscow.

Alexander Lukashenko really gets under my skin. Is it actually possible that there isn't a single internal force strong enough to topple his regime? It feels like he’s just one bad day away from grabbing a one-way ticket to Russia and running for it.

Christian Torres3 said:Total children's stories. Especially that last ridiculous gem about how Crimea controls access to the Mediterranean. Like, how exactly are people supposed to bypass the Dardanelles now? Makes no sense.

You're wasting your breath. ☕

The second this shifted from talking about a "Russian trap" to nuclear threats, you knew exactly where this was headed...

Gerald Torres84 said:But the main thing is that Milojko sees those Ukrainian flags; I suppose the Americans will probably start noticing them soon enough too.

The Albanians already have, and this isn't over—they’ve even spotted the Albanians.
I'm still chewing on this whole situation. Is the issue that an Albanian is cutting through DC? Or is it that he's gay? Or maybe both?
I'm leaning toward both, since everyone keeps calling it a provocation...

stormybear25 said:Alexander Lukashenko just claimed that "Ukraine is currently assembling forces to topple the current government in Belarus" 🤦
View on twitter

A few months back, I mentioned that once winter hits, Lukashenko would start prepping his country for war—especially if the Russians start losing ground...
Those Iskanders aren't sitting there just for show near the Polish border.

Honestly, I have no clue how NATO should even react if the Belarusians start pushing from the north.
Full-scale response? A partial one? Even Poland is gearing up.
I'm stumped.

silentsurfer3 said:A few months back, I mentioned that once winter hits, Lukashenko would start prepping his country for war—especially if the Russians start losing ground...
Those Iskanders aren't sitting there just for show near the Polish border.

Honestly, I have no clue how NATO should even react if the Belarusians start pushing from the north.
Full-scale response? A partial one? Even Poland is gearing up.
I'm stumped.

So, you're saying the Belarusians are planning to hit Ukraine with 16,000 troops...?

silentsurfer3 said:A few months back, I mentioned that once winter hits, Lukashenko would start prepping his country for war—especially if the Russians start losing ground...
Those Iskanders aren't sitting there just for show near the Polish border.

Honestly, I have no clue how NATO should even react if the Belarusians start pushing from the north.
Full-scale response? A partial one? Even Poland is gearing up.
I'm stumped.

Belarus is just too geographically bottlenecked for any real, serious military operations.
They might be getting pretty pumped up, sure.
But at the end of the day, most of this feels like nothing more than empty threats.

Timothy Nelson5 said:If Russia decides to deploy some kind of tactical nuclear weapon against Ukraine just to blackmail them into an armistice, here’s what I imagine would happen:

1. Russia would instantly become a total global pariah.
Even the countries that have been quietly supporting them or staying silent would probably feel forced to distance themselves publicly.

2. We might see some sort of quiet ceasefire in Ukraine, but NATO and other Western powers would likely be moving straight into a mobilization phase.

3. Give it a month, and Ukraine would probably announce they have their own nuclear warheads and missile systems ready for delivery to Moscow.

Just thinking about what happens if the Ukrainians then fire those borrowed nukes at Russia.🤷