Henry Lopez10
Member
24 messages
joined Mar 2010
Did I say at the start of this conflict that the Russian military was nothing more than a paper tiger? Did I mention how oligarchic corruption had gutted their forces, or ask if any sane person would actually pick a fight with people possessing such fierce, stubborn grit?
Ever since the days of Peter the Great and Catherine the Great, they’ve relied on that wild, indomitable spirit for warfare. These aren't people who fold easily or live in fear. Sure, they might have been a bit rusty at the start—having forgotten how to actually fight—but now, with help from the West, they are systematically dismantling what used to be called the fourth strongest military on the planet.
At this point, Putin has what he has, and his secret agendas won't sustain him forever once they achieve their immediate goals. Once that happens, neither Putin nor his inner circle will show an ounce of strength toward Ukraine. They’ll likely pour everything left into this war, especially given the precarious situation they find themselves in.
And as for the Ukrainians?
The most dangerous opponent for any invader is the local warrior who has become intimately acquainted with war, hunger, and death—someone fighting for their own home. A person with nothing left to lose goes into battle with both head and heart.
It is pure psychology.
People like that rarely lose in the long run.
The Ukrainians are going to see this through to the end, no matter how long it takes. They won't stop until everything is cleared out, and every mass grave or piece of evidence regarding atrocities found along the way only serves to harden their resolve.
The only way this changes is if the war spills over into Russia itself, perhaps triggering internal uprisings as people begin demanding accountability.
Even the opposition in Chechnya—all those who are itching to take down Kadyrov—won't just sit idly by.
Anything can happen there.
As for Lukashenko?
He is far too slick and calculating a ruler to drag his entire nation, or himself, into a massive confrontation against the NATO crowd. He felt forced to let Putin in and stand by his side, but really, what choice did he have?
They face the risk of being swallowed up by a conquest of Belarus or a direct war with Russia, and unlike the Ukrainians, they don't have a "Big Brother" like the West to back them up. The Russians would swallow them whole in a heartbeat, and he'd likely be deposed or imprisoned. Let's be realistic.
If you look at where Putin stands right now and see the direction this is heading, it becomes clear that much of the talk about supporting Russia is just empty noise. People claim to be standing with Russia, when in reality, they are just looking out for their own interests.
Will he send a portion of his army? Unlikely. I don't think he's quite that insane. Not unless Putin puts even more pressure on him.
The war continues, and Russia will retaliate by striking larger cities, but in the grand scheme of things, they have already lost. They are losing day by day.
Glory to Ukraine! 👍