Russia's invasion of Ukraine: Part 5

Benjamin Taylor6 said:Belarus is just too geographically bottlenecked for any real, serious military operations.
They might be getting pretty pumped up, sure.
But at the end of the day, most of this feels like nothing more than empty threats.

Belarus is basically what Mexico used to be. They’re under the Russian thumb to the point where they’ve become their primary ally, but it still feels like it's happening against their will... 🙄😵

Richard Wilson4 said:The second this shifted from talking about a "Russian trap" to nuclear threats, you knew exactly where this was headed...

Exactly—it’s likely the best indicator of the actual situation on the ground, viewed through the lens of Moscow. One just needs to learn how to read between the lines.
It is useful for them to bark about this "possibility" ahead of time, though. It buys you enough time to prep an appropriate response, at least on the rhetorical front. And up until now, the response has always been nothing more than increasing military aid to Ukraine.

What do you mean "dead Belarus"? They don't even have the strength to take over a local park; they’d run out of soldiers in two days.

swiftjackal11 said:Just thinking about what happens if the Ukrainians then fire those borrowed nukes at Russia.🤷

Who’s actually claiming that weaponry would be "borrowed"? You think forensics could pinpoint the exact origin after an explosion with any real precision? Or do you honestly believe anyone would even bother investigating such a thing in the heat of the moment? The Russians have already conceded that further escalation only drags them deeper into the mire. Their constant verbal outbursts became counterproductive ages ago; now, they're simply reaping the harvest of the seeds they sowed themselves.

Russian base wiped out following explosion in Svatove

silentsurfer3 said:A few months back, I mentioned that once winter hits, Lukashenko would start prepping his country for war—especially if the Russians start losing ground...
Those Iskanders aren't sitting there just for show near the Polish border.

Honestly, I have no clue how NATO should even react if the Belarusians start pushing from the north.
Full-scale response? A partial one? Even Poland is gearing up.
I'm stumped.

Give me a break. If the Russian Army was already humiliated trying to take Kyiv, watching the Belarusians struggle would be nothing short of tragicomic...

Though, I suppose it might provide a decent excuse to finally bring some democracy to that country...

silentsurfer3 said:A few months back, I mentioned that once winter hits, Lukashenko would start prepping his country for war—especially if the Russians start losing ground...
Those Iskanders aren't sitting there just for show near the Polish border.

Honestly, I have no clue how NATO should even react if the Belarusians start pushing from the north.
Full-scale response? A partial one? Even Poland is gearing up.
I'm stumped.

In my view, the Americans should enter Ukraine to defend Kyiv. They ought to crush whatever Belarusian mess tries to cross the border, and leave it at that.
The US should be there to watch Ukraine's back.

If you ask me, we’re looking at a massive mobilization way before anyone even thinks about dropping a nuke.

It’s pretty obvious they’re losing this war. At the rate they’re going, they aren't gaining an inch—just retreating. It leads me to one of two things: either they tuck their tails and run, or they pull a full-scale mobilization. And honestly? I highly doubt they have the stomach to just roll over and quit.

silentsurfer3 said:A few months back, I mentioned that once winter hits, Lukashenko would start prepping his country for war—especially if the Russians start losing ground...
Those Iskanders aren't sitting there just for show near the Polish border.

Honestly, I have no clue how NATO should even react if the Belarusians start pushing from the north.
Full-scale response? A partial one? Even Poland is gearing up.
I'm stumped.

NATO needs to be swift, strong, and decisive.

Show them exactly where they stand. Anything less is just stalling.

I don't see any way Belarus gets involved—the locals would probably lynch Alexander Lukashenko themselves since he’s already alienated too many people by backing this aggression.
Besides, they know perfectly well they'd just be wiped out..

Certain nations, such as Germany or Japan, are widely viewed as being effectively paranucluear—meaning they possess the latent capability to develop nuclear weapons in an incredibly short window if they ever chose to. I’m not entirely certain where Ukraine stands in that regard, but given their history as a former nuclear power, it wouldn't surprise me one bit if they maintain that same capacity, perhaps even with a little extra momentum provided by external technical support. You can't just erase that kind of specialized knowledge overnight.

When it comes to Ukraine, I suspect the real bottleneck isn't technical expertise, but the sheer cost. These military programs are incredibly expensive. It’s the same reason why it's highly questionable how many operational nuclear assets Russia actually has left out of those thousands they claim on paper.

I’m guessing we're looking at some kind of diversion here, maybe just some noise about potential incursions by Ukrainian forces moving away from the Russian front lines.
If an actual attack happened, it would be the same thing but on steroids, likely timed perfectly with a more serious Russian offensive elsewhere.

NATO getting dragged into this? Highly unlikely.

The smartest move would probably be fueling internal unrest and arming local "partisans" in Belarus if necessary, especially since Vladimir Putin's ability to intervene directly to protect his dictators' puppets is pretty limited right now.

bluemason3 said:When it comes to Ukraine, I suspect the real bottleneck isn't technical expertise, but the sheer cost. These military programs are incredibly expensive. It’s the same reason why it's highly questionable how many operational nuclear assets Russia actually has left out of those thousands they claim on paper.

Exactly.

You can't just toss a nuclear weapon into a warehouse and expect it to stay viable for twenty years. They likely possess enough usable ordnance to cause massive devastation, certainly—but nowhere near enough to neutralize either Europe or the USA. That entire arsenal serves them well enough as a deterrent, but if they were actually to strike first, it would essentially be their own death warrant.

bluemason3 said:I’m guessing we're looking at some kind of diversion here, maybe just some noise about potential incursions by Ukrainian forces moving away from the Russian front lines.
If an actual attack happened, it would be the same thing but on steroids, likely timed perfectly with a more serious Russian offensive elsewhere.

NATO getting dragged into this? Highly unlikely.

The smartest move would probably be fueling internal unrest and arming local "partisans" in Belarus if necessary, especially since Vladimir Putin's ability to intervene directly to protect his dictators' puppets is pretty limited right now.

I don't doubt that there's already work happening behind the scenes on this. My concern is that Alexander Lukashenko doesn't trust his own people enough to arm them on a massive scale, let alone believe they’d actually point those weapons where he tells them to...

And even if things go sideways, the Polish military could be in Minsk within two days. What exactly is Russia going to do about that?

Roger Campbell3 said:I don't see any way Belarus gets involved—the locals would probably lynch Alexander Lukashenko themselves since he’s already alienated too many people by backing this aggression.
Besides, they know perfectly well they'd just be wiped out..

The Americans in Belarus would have hung Alexander Lukashenko without needing an invasion of Ukraine as an excuse. The damage he's done to his own people is more than enough; his fate would be sealed right there—unless, of course, he manages to flee to his backers in The Kremlin, much like his former colleagues from Ukraine.

stormybear25 said:Alexander Lukashenko just claimed that "Ukraine is currently assembling forces to topple the current government in Belarus" 🤦
View on twitter

Lukashenko is pretty insignificant—just constant complaining about how Poland is getting ready to invade Ukraine and grab territory, then whining to the EU about sanctions, then suggesting Ukraine should just surrender... and then suddenly claiming he has zero issues with Ukraine and hopes relations improve soon. It's a bit much.
A lot of Belarusians aren't on his side—if he actually sent troops into Ukraine, I suspect many would just surrender on the spot, and some might even join the Ukrainians. He’s been playing both sides for years—trying to balance things with Russia and the EU—but once the Russians stepped in to prevent him from falling, he basically had to start paying back his debt to Vladimir Putin.

Is there anything more profound than a well-placed quote to capture the essence of a moment?

Jessica Peterson2 said:Apparently, the Moscow Police raided an apartment and detained a woman just for... listening to the Ukrainian anthem in her own home! She was reported by her neighbor

Oh, please, let's not get carried away with such nonsense, shall we?

Was anyone here really holding out much hope for the 91st Amendment, let alone anything even more substantial?

Nancy Gomez26 said:The Americans in Belarus would have hung Alexander Lukashenko without needing an invasion of Ukraine as an excuse. The damage he's done to his own people is more than enough; his fate would be sealed right there—unless, of course, he manages to flee to his backers in The Kremlin, much like his former colleagues from Ukraine.

Even then, do you think The Kremlin would start screaming about a "coup, a government takeover, or white supremacists ousting a legally elected president"🙄?

Zachary Booth36 said:In my view, the Americans should enter Ukraine to defend Kyiv. They ought to crush whatever Belarusian mess tries to cross the border, and leave it at that.
The US should be there to watch Ukraine's back.

Poland shouldn't get involved in this at all. Given the historical context, it's far better for Poland to remain on the sidelines for as long as possible, provided they aren't directly attacked. They must respond to an overt assault—of that there is no doubt—but provocations? No. Russia would welcome nothing more than a verbal pretext to justify further escalations. Poland is already doing something massive by maintaining a stable base of support for Ukraine.
Ukraine doesn't need to involve itself in Belarus either. They could simply 'let go' of the Belarusians currently on leave within their units. Those little green men could suddenly reappear all over Belarus in the near future. Miracles happen with those little green men. Especially when they have broad support from the local population. There wouldn't even be a need to forge a referendum.