Russia's invasion of Ukraine: Part 5

Thomas Walker84 said:It’s just wonderful being part of this "Russian world"... you live your life never knowing when an explosion might catch you while you're out grabbing bread and milk, or when a bomb might hit your house or where your kids go to preschool. You never know when you'll be woken up by tanks rolling down the street, or by sirens, or when you'll find yourself staring at more hollowed-out buildings in the neighborhood. You're always wondering if the darkness will swallow you whole or if you'll be deported somewhere unknown in Siberia. And there are so many fresh graves everywhere—some mass graves with no names, others Vietnam-style with rows of white crosses, scattered through gardens and backyards. There's plenty of it, and I bet there are even more of these "wonderful" things we don't know about yet. Who wouldn't want this?
👎

Even better, though, is being a full-time "Russian world" propagandist... You get to spend your days writing about how Ukrainians are solely responsible for everything happening in their own unfortunate country. Apparently, it’s all their fault because they refused to just accept the occupation of Crimea and the Donbas. According to this logic, Ukraine is some land populated by Nazi monsters who eat Russian innocents for breakfast, and where Banderites are out there raping and slaughtering Ukrainian women and Russians in local settlements, only to try and shift the blame onto Chechen or Buryat "liberators." Oh, and let's not forget how massacres like the one in Bucha, or today's missile strike on a shopping center in Kremenchuk, are dismissed as nothing more than "fake performances." It goes on and on ad nauseum ...
Really, who wouldn't want that kind of life?

Numenorean said:Really?

So, the idea is that Putin always intended to invade Ukraine, but for some inexplicable reason, he held off in 2014 when the Ukrainian military was disorganized and weak—an era where the annexation of Crimea went by without any meaningful sanctions from the West. Instead, he just waited until 2022. Why on earth would he do that? Did he just find the statistics for 2022 more aesthetically pleasing? Is this some sort of numerology at play? It seems illogical.

Furthermore, how could Putin have been planning an invasion if Russia signed two separate peace agreements with Kyiv between 2014 and 2022, agreements which Kyiv ultimately failed to uphold? And wasn't Poroshenko recently boasting about signing the Minsk Agreement merely as a way to buy time, with no actual intention of implementing its terms? It makes one wonder what we are actually discussing here.

I truly cannot say who suggested to the Ukrainians that they should reject those peace deals—I suspect it was the same people who advised Alija Izetbegović to reject the Cutileirov plan for Canada—nor can I say what was promised in return. But clearly, they were misled, much like Alija was.

In short, they were betrayed by Russia. They signed agreements guaranteeing their sovereignty and borders in good faith, provided they returned the nuclear weapons to Russia.
If they hadn't returned them or signed those papers, this war wouldn't be happening.
And yet, you still choose to believe a Russian when they swear on their life that they will never attack.

Gerald Torres84 said:In short, they were betrayed by Russia. They signed agreements guaranteeing their sovereignty and borders in good faith, provided they returned the nuclear weapons to Russia.
If they hadn't returned them or signed those papers, this war wouldn't be happening.
And yet, you still choose to believe a Russian when they swear on their life that they will never attack.

I just hope the Ukrainians don't get talked into something like clearing the mines near Odessa to let the grain through; they'd likely just strike immediately (and steal the grain anyway).

hollowdriver13 said:The real question is, can the Russians actually churn out another 300k PROFESSIONAL soldiers to even stand a chance against those NATO numbers?...😁

I mean, I probably can, but what’s the point of giving them all this gear? All they're gonna get out of it is a one-way ticket to a grave or a prisoner-of-war camp.

electricsurfer47 said:I mean, I probably can, but what’s the point of giving them all this gear? All they're gonna get out of it is a one-way ticket to a grave or a prisoner-of-war camp.

What are you even rambling about? You think 300k professional NATO soldiers would be deployed without any equipment? I guess you're getting them mixed up with the Russians and sending guys out in half-broken gear.

Melissa Rivera5 said:What are you even rambling about? You think 300k professional NATO soldiers would be deployed without any equipment? I guess you're getting them mixed up with the Russians and sending guys out in half-broken gear.

He was talking about the Russians, look at the quote. If they've already burned through so much gear in Ukraine, do they really want to send over the tiny bit of decent stuff they have left?

The West is massing a huge military force.
Just hoping things don't escalate too far.

Melissa Rivera5 said:What are you even rambling about? You think 300k professional NATO soldiers would be deployed without any equipment? I guess you're getting them mixed up with the Russians and sending guys out in half-broken gear.

Well, the guy was actually talking about the Russians.

electricsurfer47 said:He was talking about the Russians, look at the quote. If they've already burned through so much gear in Ukraine, do they really want to send over the tiny bit of decent stuff they have left?

My bad, sorry

electricsurfer47 said:He was talking about the Russians, look at the quote. If they've already burned through so much gear in Ukraine, do they really want to send over the tiny bit of decent stuff they have left?

They’ve got reserves, sure, but mostly for a defensive fight. (Two fronts, multiple lines... they can hold their own.)
Obviously, they've poured a massive amount of resources into the invasion of Ukraine.

NATO's rapid response is top-tier, but analysts keep saying... logistics could be the real headache.
Clearly, they'd have to stay within borders and move fast if they were going to push into Russian territory.
The madman might just drop a tactical nuke.

Richard Wilson4 said:I love Ukrainians, I really do, but even reclaiming Kherson seems like a massive stretch right now, let alone Crimea.

The war is probably going to end with them losing Slavic cities like Kramatorsk, which sucks, and then the EU will just force them into a brutal peace deal with Russia.

They'll likely be left holding onto Odessa, Sumy, and maybe Kharkiv—though even those weren't a sure thing just a few months ago.

What kind of "dark peace" are we talking about? It is difficult to believe the European Union is quite that incompetent. Such an arrangement would merely be a pause before phase two, where Russia takes Odessa and Kharkiv.

Richard Wilson4 said:I love Ukrainians, I really do, but even reclaiming Kherson seems like a massive stretch right now, let alone Crimea.

The war is probably going to end with them losing Slavic cities like Kramatorsk, which sucks, and then the EU will just force them into a brutal peace deal with Russia.

They'll likely be left holding onto Odessa, Sumy, and maybe Kharkiv—though even those weren't a sure thing just a few months ago.

How long do you think it'll actually take them to grab Slavic and Kramatorsk?

analogbear5 said:How long do you think it'll actually take them to grab Slavic and Kramatorsk?

Maybe a month max....

So, they’ve gone all in. You think they’ll dial back the artillery a bit? Both cities are bigger than Severodonetsk anyway—plus, they aren't even backed up against the Russian side of the river.

slysurfer14 said:Maybe a month max....

🤣

Richard Wilson4 said:I love Ukrainians, I really do, but even reclaiming Kherson seems like a massive stretch right now, let alone Crimea.

The war is probably going to end with them losing Slavic cities like Kramatorsk, which sucks, and then the EU will just force them into a brutal peace deal with Russia.

They'll likely be left holding onto Odessa, Sumy, and maybe Kharkiv—though even those weren't a sure thing just a few months ago.

I’m honestly just sitting here wondering how on earth the European Union is supposed to "twist their arms." Look at the reality: the USA and the UK are the ones footing the bill for the weapons, and everything is flowing right through Poland. The best the European Union can do is try to nag Poland about some legal technicality that isn't even a real European standard—something Poland can easily just ignore while giving Brussels the middle finger.

If and when the USA decides to turn off the tap, then maybe we can actually talk about someone losing leverage.

Is there any news regarding the casualties from the de-radicalized shopping mall?

According to the early reports surfacing on Telegram, we're looking at at least 11 fatalities and roughly 40 people wounded.

George Robinson43 said:Given how the Putin bots over on Rossiya 1 are constantly hyping up new special operations—like strikes on the Baltic, sabotaging oil infrastructure in the Netherlands, or even the total disappearance of the United Kingdom—I suspect this deployment of 300,000 is merely the opening act!

The whole point of these announcements is purely psychological. It’s a tactic to stretch NATO forces thin and squeeze the flow of weapons to Ukraine. That is their sole purpose. They have no actual intention of launching an attack based on these threats. If they truly plan to strike, they won't give us a warning; they will simply hit someone or somewhere when we least expect it.

Jessica Peterson2 said:According to the early reports surfacing on Telegram, we're looking at at least 11 fatalities and roughly 40 people wounded.

What’s the current status over in Kazakhstan? Has the media frenzy against Tokayev finally died down, or is that circus still running?