Posts by graniteotter6

Dana Baker2 said:The Memphis guys have gone 6-0 on the over lately. I guess that might look promising to some, but personally, I find that a bit hard to swallow.😛

Maybe it’s in favor of the under? It definitely doesn't look like we're headed for a 6-0 run on the over.

Dana Baker2 said:I’d probably start with Washington +9.5/over 100.5 and the Brooklyn Nets +8.5. I'll likely just play 3 or 4 smaller bets to keep the stakes low.

Did you manage to dig up any intel?

I went with the Washington over, along with the Brooklyn Nets, but I won't double down on those.
I didn't get a chance to use Portland today, so I might look at them.
Dahntay Jones is questionable.
Calderon is also questionable for a blowout game.
Booker is questionable too.

Dana Baker2 said:Do you think the Charlotte Bobcats really need to pull off one massive upset just to stay relevant?🤣
So, what are the two of us going to do then? I wonder if you'll actually filter it.
The odds at Fortune are getting pretty wild. The Indiana-Detroit line went over, and now the Memphis handicap has jumped all the way to 12.5?! I probably should have placed my bet by the 12 mark anyway. I guess I'll likely just throw a little something into SS-A.😁

Not really, I'm just waiting on some info to drop. Honestly, I'm just bored out of my mind. 😁
hehe, what can you do... we take it slow. Let's go with Portland under. Now, why don't you suggest one more pick for us to play, provided I actually agree with it—since you were the one who suggested Portland in the first place.
If you want to see the evidence regarding the fixing, just send me a DM.

Don't sweat it just because everyone else is obsessing over the stats.
It seems like everybody is stuck in this mindset of "they have to win now, they absolutely have to." Well, I guess they don't.😁

I currently have a wager placed on DraftKings. Should I provide proof? 😁

ruggedgull32 said:I think I laid out my logic regarding over/under bets pretty clearly. At the end of the day, the players are the ones driving the outcome—whether the total goes over or under depends entirely on who takes the field and when they play. It’s not like it makes no difference. I guess I’m just spinning my wheels here now.
Once the match-fixing starts picking up, there’ll be plenty of opportunities to either make a quick buck or lose it all. I guess it depends on how much risk you're willing to stomach.🤷

I suppose I was a bit too blunt there. You didn't do anything wrong. Necessary.Let’s take a second to actually think about this. How many times have you placed an "under" bet on Team A just because you read some rumor that their leading scorer might sit out? And how did that usually turn out? In my experience, someone always steps up and delivers a massive performance, mostly because we're talking about the NBA—where the talent pool is essentially the best players on the planet. You probably shouldn't rely so heavily on "insider" tips.

Dana Baker2 said:I suppose betting the under on individual players isn't a bad move if their teams have already locked in a playoff spot, or if you're looking at the overs for guys on bottom-tier teams. It just seems like the market hasn't really offered much for players on the struggling squads lately; I seem to recall we had far more opportunities to capitalize on that toward the end of last season.

True, but then again, they usually don't even put them on the field to begin with.
When it comes to the betting lines for those underdog teams, you're spot on. I recall seeing the exact same pattern playing out this time last year.

Well, the Grizzlies are still fighting for that fourth seed and home-court advantage. If that’s the case, I suppose there isn't much room for playing it safe. That said, we saw exactly what kind of team they can be when they were getting absolutely shredded by 50 points against Detroit. Memphis usually has a knack for dismantling teams like this in a single quarter, though I have my doubts about whether that's going to happen today.

That’s true, but if gambling were actually based on math and logic... 😉

As for everything else:
I’m leaning toward the under on Indiana vs. Detroit, specifically looking at that 191.5 line. I guess if both offenses decide to play it safe for once, we might actually see a lower score, though I suppose that's optimistic of me. Maybe.
Indiana has already locked in third place, so I suspect they might give one of their starters a rest today. If that happens, we could see a bit of a dip in their offensive production. On the flip side, Detroit has been struggling to find any rhythm lately; they’re one of those teams that can easily stall out and end up stuck in the 70s—which is exactly what happened at home yesterday. Given that, the current line feels a little too high for my liking.
Update: It looks like Granger, Hibbert, and Hill aren't in the starting lineup. I guess we'll see how that plays out.

And there it is. Just like that, you end up with a glorified exhibition match. Who knows what the fallout will be? Probably nothing, I suppose. If I were calling this one, I’d probably lean toward the over rather than the under.

I’m looking at the Milwaukee-Toronto matchup and leaning toward the under 201.5. It feels like one of those games where the offensive rhythm might just struggle to find any real traction. I guess we'll see if the pace holds up, but my money is on a lower-scoring affair.
The Bucks have already been knocked out of the playoffs, so this matchup feels like it’s essentially just playing for pride at this point. On the other hand, Toronto has been playing surprisingly solid lately despite being without their key players, and they haven't been giving up many points either. If the Bucks get held to around 100, I guess there shouldn't be much of an issue hitting the under here.

I initially listed this as a secondary pair, but then I realized my mistake regarding the Wiz Boys. So, yeah. It’s actually possible.

If you ask me, offering odds of 1.20 on Phil just doesn't make any sense.🤷 I suspect the Nets shouldn't have any trouble covering the spread, and they'll likely clear the over as well. So, anyway...
I'm leaning toward the Nets at +8.5, though I’ll probably take the over on 89.5. It feels like a reasonable play, I guess, provided the scoring actually picks up.

I touched on this earlier this afternoon, so here it is. 😉

What exactly are we going to do about our own? I suppose I’m leaning toward the Bobcats taking the under on 90.5. It feels like a reasonable call, though I might be overthinking it. Maybe they'll find their rhythm, but I wouldn't bet the house on it.?😂
It seems to me they weren't meant to make it through.

What can you really do? While things are heading south, they’re heading south. I guess you just keep doubling down.

I’m leaning toward Portland staying under 96.5. I guess there's a decent chance the offense might struggle to find its rhythm tonight, though I suppose it's always a bit of a gamble with these types of totals. Maybe they'll hit it, maybe they won't, but my money is on the under..

My parlay fell through. Maybe I'll have some luck on the next one, I guess. 😁

If someone could just confirm one of these details, we might actually be able to get this show on the road.

I suppose we should probably call it quits. We seem to be thinking along the exact same lines, and for us bettors, that’s usually a recipe for disaster. It almost always ends up working out against us. 😁

ruggedgull32 said:I guess I’ve finally thrown in the towel on betting player props. The over/under markets for individual players just aren't worth the headache anymore.That’s how it goes for the rest of the crew, I suppose. I suppose we're all just sitting around waiting for the PO to finally kick in.☕

I suppose you're right about the players, but I think you might be off base regarding Bolden.
Now is exactly when you have to strike. This is the moment to get in there and start placing bets. Honestly, the bookmakers are making massive mistakes right now; their lines are off by at least seven or ten points. It’s an obvious opening if you know where to look.
I’m going to do a little research first, then I'll post what I think is the most likely parlay. Honestly, today's slate is pretty much a disaster—there aren't any major derbies or high-stakes matchups on the schedule. Still, that doesn't necessarily mean the picks will be bad. I suppose it's actually easier to think clearly when there isn't a massive influx of low-quality games cluttering up the menu.

After looking into the numbers, I think I’ll stick with the -13.5 handicap on Cleveland. Of course, they went ahead and crushed that line at 1.75.

I missed Washington at over 100.5—honestly, how did that slip past me? I suppose the odds on Charlotte looked a bit too slim for my liking, so I relegated it to my "worth a shot" pile. Then again, even when the Wizards were facing much tougher opponents at home, they managed to hold their own. They generally seem more composed and physically dominant when playing on their home court.

That usually happens later, once the American sportsbooks release their lines and our local guys just copy them.

I was thinking maybe Golden State might be worth a look.☕

I’m expecting some new promos to drop today, so I probably shouldn't rush into anything with Charlotte just yet.
Slow and steady.
For now, if I were playing the current available lines, I'd take all the covered spreads.
The Nets aren't exactly capable of doing everything at home—covering the spread, scoring over 89, and potentially even winning outright.
Philly did what they had to do, though they aren't exactly in peak form and have been giving up quite a few points lately; meanwhile, the Nets tend to hold their own at home against tougher opponents...
Cleveland played a high-octane, run-and-gun style in Texas last night, and today they face a more methodical Grizzlies squad that will likely win on pure routine, though I don't expect them to get absolutely demolished by 14 points.
Milwaukee is fighting to stay in the playoff hunt, so they need this one, but the Raptors are tough; they put up 149 against Detroit last night, and they've been trending toward the under lately. Atlanta did dismantle them recently, but that was a home-to-home matchup, so who knows how this one plays out.

I’ve been away from you all for a few days, though I did make sure to keep a close eye on the scores via the news tickers😂 I was essentially stuck dealing with some broken appliances at home and didn't have much free time, so I ended up placing bets based mostly on memory and gut feeling.
Friday was a bit of a rough one (CHA under 84, OKC under 213, DAL under 107, LAL under 98), then there was one parlay winner on Thursday, and two more last night.
Because of that, I won't be offering any deep analysis today; I'm honestly too exhausted to go digging through the internet.

Looking back now, I see I picked two parlays today, and I noticed that stormyseal9's reasoning aligns perfectly with my own logic. However, his analysis was posted several hours ago, yet I just placed my bets and the odds haven't budged. Is this a trap?
CHA under 95—that either feels like the gift of a lifetime or a total setup.
NOLA over 85. Honestly, I can't quite wrap my head around it.🤷

One thing for debate:
Minnesota vs. Golden State over 206 should probably clear without much trouble. It seems like a low-stakes matchup between teams that enjoy playing fast. To me, the spread on Golden State also looks massive. Does that line actually move back?

Jason Baker59 said:there's going to be some scoring today... Memphis-Minnesota will go over

Not likely.

Frank Morgan30 said:once again, I was just being too greedy😳

You weren't.
PHI-IND over 183
Granger over 19
Boston over 89
Min-Mem under 194
Pekovic under—why? He hits 16 by the middle of the third quarter and then struggles to get a single point for the rest of the game.🙂
Greed, I suppose. That's what it is.

Memphis-Minnesota under 194

After that unexpected loss to the Knicks—where, frankly, the scoring was embarrassingly low—we’re heading out to chase a win in the coldest major city in the States.
We all know how Memphis operates: they clog up the paint and swarm perimeter players like Conley and Allen, basically buzzing around them like wasps to force those turnovers.
Looking at Minnesota, it seems like Beasley is the only one showing any real flashes of brilliance since coming back from injury, which is probably why he was one of my favorite players to watch last season... I think the picture is pretty clear here.

ruggedgull32 said:I'm sitting here waiting to see what graniteotter6 is going to drop for tonight's game; I'm genuinely curious to see his take on this one.😁

Thou shall wait no more.

Ladies and gentlemen, I suppose tonight is the night we finally see some absolute carnage.
I’m leaning towards the Atlanta vs. Toronto game going over 182.5. It feels like a reasonable call, I guess.
The game in Atlanta last night was a bit of a wild ride—they actually crossed that 184.5 line with just 53 seconds left on the clock. I guess we saw that coming, but it was still something to note.
Even though Andrija won't be playing against those mediocre Toronto guys, DeRozan is looking sharp. He actually had some decent support from three ten-day contract signings last night. I’ve never been much of a fan of Kleiz, so I suppose tonight might actually be his night.
Atlanta is basically in full tank mode anyway, so I expect things to be a bit more relaxed. It’ll probably turn into a higher tempo game, I guess.
I’m leaning towards Orlando vs. Philadelphia going over 181.5.
The defensive grind in Philadelphia is basically over; we’re just white-knuckling it through these final days until the playoffs start. Now that Orlando is even missing Big Baby tonight, I suspect the Philly big men are going to have a rough time. Expect plenty of fouls on drives to the rim, though they'll probably find a way to grind it out regardless. Those wild Wizards managed to put up 95, so if Orlando plays even half as chaotic, they could easily hit 85 or 90. If they can just knock down three triples early in the first, I guess that might be enough to seal it.
I’d say Dallas -3.5 is the play here. They have a full roster available, though they’re definitely feeling the bruises from last night and that fifty-three-minute grind. That said, when Terry is playing well, the Mavericks tend to find their rhythm. Utah looks a bit shorthanded, and honestly, it feels like their season might be winding down at this point. I wouldn't read too much into those recent wins against a depleted Spurs squad or a tired Houston team. Meanwhile, NOLA and Memphis—who are both on a slight downward trend themselves—have pretty much shown exactly where they stand in the hierarchy.
I don't usually weigh in on roster moves like this, but I think it might be time for a bit of a shakeup in Charlotte—maybe even a complete overhaul. To be honest, he just seems like a total liability out there in Nola. And really, is there any worse time to mess up than when everyone is actually expecting something from you?

I'm back, and I have to say, I'm pretty happy with how things turned out.
I've just been lurking here for the last few days instead of playing.
I did get some action in yesterday, though. Memphis 🙄
Naturally, that was my one slip-up.
I'll throw you guys a bone later today—a solid analysis that should hold up, once I've had a moment to scope out the opposition.
The key word here is momentum.

Is Ljubica playing against the Clippers today?
It would certainly help a lot. I just hope they didn't overindulge last night after that spectacular fourth-quarter comeback.

The Spurs 🤦 have Memphis coming up next. Not a bet if you ask me.

👋 I knew there would be more misses; I felt it in my gut immediately. 🙂

I’m honestly just counting down the days until the playoffs. That’s when they’ll finally crawl out from under their rocks—those players who aren't even considered part of the rotation during the regular season—and suddenly they're racking up assists and rebounds. Just pure magic, I guess.

At least the moderators sleep through the night, so we can just sit here and chat away as much as we want. No actual analysis required.

graniteotter6 said:Looks like the Nuggets let me down on my parlay.,They’re gone. I guess we’re talking about the Oklahoma City Thunder now. Indiana PacersOdds were 5.07. I’m not exactly proud of myself, but I guess it was just stronger than me.
It looks like we have a day ahead of us that could be full of surprises. I suppose you should probably root for the underdogs while you still have the chance.

The play of the century.
It looks like Kevin Love is injured.
If it weren't funny, it would actually be pretty tragic.

What happened with the Indiana Pacers was peak stupidity.
Everything was winding down smoothly—you’re up by 7, you’ve held four leads, you played them beautifully in that final sequence, and you have two free throws with 17 seconds left while the opponent is floored.
And you miss both. Fine, whatever.
They attempt a desperate three, you foul them right as they're going up for a putback dunk, and suddenly it's just a one-point lead.
They draw the foul, shoot the two, and sink one.
There are 5 seconds left on the clock. Plenty of time for them to drive for a layup to tie it.
But hey, you still have 1.2 seconds for one last shot.
The best move would have been to toss it to Roy Hibbert and let him try a soft bank shot off the glass.

Honestly, just go home.

You aren't some NBA exclusive, so trying to sneakily provoke us like that is a bit much.
I see you've finally started paying attention to colons and capitalization. 😁

Come on, you absolute favorites, give me a break.

The Nuggets fell off my parlay, and instead, we got OKC and Indiana. Odds were at 5.07. I can't say I'm particularly proud of myself, but honestly, I just couldn't help it.
It looks like we're in for a day full of surprises. I suppose you should bet on the underdogs while you still have the chance.

stormyseal9 said:It seems like there’s always someone ready to screw over the favorites in these types of matchups. That's why I usually stick to moneyline or spread bets; if I'm going to lose my shirt, I might as well do it on a gutsy play.

I'm aware. I wouldn't exactly call myself naive. 😁

I suppose I should probably refrain from weighing in on things I haven't actually played myself; otherwise, I might come across as someone who thinks they're being particularly clever.🤷Anyway, I wish you all the best. 😉

Look, feel free to share your opinion if you must, but my decision regarding the Love investment is mine alone. There’s really no need to worry about it—just keep on playing the expert, as you so kindly put it. 😉

Dana Baker2 said:And you might even manage to pull off a few of those .50/.50 plays (1.85).

That’s actually exactly how I handled things back when I was running that series. I just worked through all the spreads—over/under, favorites, the whole bit.

As for Philadelphia, they've officially entered my "just stay away" zone. Personally, I think Houston is the best bet here, and I suppose the Spurs probably shouldn't run into much trouble either.
I don't see any way all five or six of those heavy favorites are actually going to pull through. It’s highly unlikely.

I’ve been rooting for Fila for quite some time now. Honestly, I mostly bet on her because of how much the home team seems to push those 20-to-1 underdog odds. 👍
Not every heavy favorite is going to cover, which is exactly why I’m staying away from Boston—just like someone else pointed out.
Houston, we have a problem. Actually, no—let's just say I'm staying far away from that. I have zero intention of even touching this topic. It isn't nearly the slam dunk he tries to make it out to be.

Thanks.
I wouldn't go so far as to say you were incredibly helpful, but I suppose you weren't exactly useless either.
I just wanted to check in and see how everyone's doing. Just seeing how the room is breathing, I guess.
I think I might actually go for those four. Money isn't exactly an issue at the moment, thank God. 😍)