stormyseal9 said:Don't use that game as a benchmark—his style just doesn't mesh with the Boston defense at all. All three games went under, and he was taking way fewer shots than usual while shooting a miserable 25%, which is basically half his normal average🤷. You've still got him at 16.5 in HL😍
Yeah, I get it, I was just pointing that out to build on the first part of my post where I mentioned the rest/fatigue thing... totally blanked on yesterday's game 😵 ... but like I said, I'm thinking he might go over today, so I took that, plus a 1x on the Detroit Pistons 😉
Aside from Detroit (if you’re asking me, I’ll take a clean bucket any day), I'd probably go Al Jamison over 17.5... assuming they still don't have Vladimir Veras in the lineup for the Cavaliers, which basically means everyone is leaning on Jamison as their only real big man worth a damn. His minutes should be pretty steady—probably looking at around 35—and he was absolutely cooking before the All-Star break, dropping about 20 a night in his last five or six outings. He’s taking 15-20 shots, so I’m expecting maybe 5-6 attempts from deep, hopefully knocking down 2 or 3 of those, plus whatever easy layups Kyrie Irving sets up for him. If he just finds his rhythm, he clears this line easily... plus, he's likely had a nice little breather during this 4-5 day break (which matters more for him since, you know, he's 35), and Stoudemire is keeping him in rotation, though we all know Stoudemire isn't exactly known for playing defense... so, by my math, this should hit.
edit: Man, I'm an idiot—the Cavaliers played the Celtics yesterday, and Jamison struggled hard against KG, going 3-of-15 and barely scraping 8 field goals. But honestly, it doesn't change much for me; I still think he could go over tonight, even if he didn't manage it last night. 😬
Keith Moore21 said:So he actually went with the second parlay—hitting both Oklahoma City Thunder and Orlando Magic... I mean, the Oklahoma City Thunder thing is pretty much a lock at this point, but with Orlando? Well, the Brooklyn Nets are missing Kris Humphries, Deron Williams, Zdenko Okur, and Al Horford—maybe even Chris Bosh too... Tiago Splitter might finally get some meaningful minutes, but I doubt anyone's expecting him to put up massive numbers in the first few weeks—that injury layoff was just way too long...
It was a killer day—well, night, I guess... managed to cash this parlay too 👋
darkgull11 said:Deron Williams (-24.5 points) vs Orlando Magic — odds at 1.85
Man, if he doesn't smash this, I don't know what will—this is looking like an absolute lock for the over. 🤣
edit: well, damn, Orlando just pulled ahead by 20, and D-Will ended up riding the pine... such a bummer, honestly. He had a real chance there, but man, that shooting was rough—8-for-18 isn't exactly lighting it up. He actually looked decent coming out of halftime, hit 23 points by the end of the third, but then things just kind of stalled out right there...
Keith Moore21 said:Nobody seems to have noticed that Antawn Jamison is sitting at over 18.5 points (according to SS)... I mean, despite his age, he’s playing out of his mind lately—dropping 20+ regularly over the last few games. Honestly, I don't see this turning into a total blowout either way, so his minutes should stay pretty much standard—around 35 minutes, I guess... and here's the kicker: the New Orleans Pelicans are missing Emeka Okafor, Josh Smith, and David Lee tonight. They're basically shorthanded under the rim, and since Kuurt Kaman is really the only guy actually holding it down for them at those positions... they're in a tough spot.
darkgull11 said:hmm, now that you've dropped those numbers, I don't know if the Deron Williams over looks that bad... everything seems to be going through him lately... it always does, especially now with all these guys sitting out... what do you reckon?
Man, just now catching your drift... anyway, I'm leaning towards the over. They've got nobody else to lean on, so I'm expecting him to take at least 20 shots... saw you already jumped on that over, good luck with it! 😉
The Oklahoma City Thunder have finally found their rhythm, and Antawn Jamison started heating up after that rough 0-5 start...
So, he actually ended up playing in both games—against Oklahoma and Orlando... I mean, we already know how things look with Oklahoma, but with Orlando, it’s a whole different story since the Nets are missing Humphries, S. Williams, Okur, Farmar, and maybe even Morrow too... Lopez might finally get some minutes, but honestly, nobody's expecting him to put up massive numbers in these first couple of weeks—that injury layoff was just way too long for him to jump right back in at full speed...
Nicholas Chase34 said:The Cavs were playing the Pistons last night, and Al Jamison clocked in nearly 40 minutes. But honestly, when you actually look at all the facts, the over looks pretty solid 😁
Man, I know—I went back and edited my post just a minute after 👍 I had this thought hit me like, wait a second, didn't they guys not even play last night? 🤣 😵 Yeah, and the thing is, they don't really have anyone to step up at that position right now—since Joel Anthony isn't in the rotation yet, they're basically running Al Jamison, Klay Thompson, and JaVale McGee at the 4 and 5 spots...
I don't think anyone really caught onto the fact that Al Jamison is sitting at over 18.5 points—and honestly, I'm feeling it. The guy is playing out of his mind lately; he's been consistently dropping 20+ in recent games, which is just wild given his age. Plus, I'm not seeing any reason for this to turn into a total blowout either way, so his minutes should stay pretty much where they usually are—somewhere around the 35-minute mark, I guess... and here’s the kicker: New Orleans is dealing with some serious issues tonight because Emeka Okafor, Nate Smith, and Kevin Landry are all sidelined. They're basically running thin, and since Kuurt Kaman is probably the only one left who actually knows what he's doing in those rotation spots, things could get messy...
James Taylor3 said:I can't say for sure—can't really check right this second—but didn't the Bulls absolutely demolish them maybe 15 or 20 days ago? And that was out in Milwaukee too, if I recall. 🤷
I definitely remember them holding a lead of like 30 points during that game.
Exactly, they grabbed an away win about two weeks back, something like 113-90. 👍
I swear I told myself I wasn't going to bet on any more players, but man, I just can't help myself here... we all know how bad the Utah Jazz are at defending the backcourt—especially the point guard spot—and they struggle big time with the pick-and-roll, which is basically the San Antonio Spurs' bread and butter... Utah played yesterday too, so they're probably feeling a bit sluggish, and since the Spurs are missing Manu Ginobili and Tim Splitter (who’s honestly been their best bench weapon lately), I think Parker should be able to step up and drop like 20 points easy...
Denver-Minnesota under 207.5
I feel like they went a little overboard with this line, mostly because both teams are on the second night of a back-to-back, so fatigue is definitely going to be a factor—especially for the Denver Nuggets, who had to grind through overtime yesterday... and when you look at their scoring averages and defensive stats this season (with Denver playing at home and the Minnesota Timberwolves on the road), I really think it stays under this number...
The first one hit 23, the second one stopped at 204🙂
Look, I told myself I was done betting games, but I just can't help myself with this one... we all know the Utah Jazz have been absolutely struggling to defend the backcourt—especially the point guard spot—and they're basically a walking target for anyone running a solid pick & roll, which, let's face it, is exactly what the San Antonio Spurs do better than anyone else in the league. Utah played yesterday, so they're probably feeling a bit sluggish, and with Manu Ginobili and Tim Splitter out for the Spurs (even though Splitter has been their absolute spark plug off the bench lately), I think Tony Parker is going to step up big time and drop something like 20 points without breaking a sweat...
Denver-Minnesota under 207.5
I honestly feel like they went a little overboard setting this line, mostly because both teams are on the second night of a back-to-back, so fatigue is definitely going to be a factor—especially for Denver, who had to grind through overtime yesterday. Plus, when you look at how many points they’ve been putting up and giving up this season (with Denver playing at home and Minnesota on the road), I really think we're looking at an under here...
D-Willa isn't even in the lineup for the Brooklyn Nets 🙂
honestly, maybe it's for the best—at least for me, I could use a little break from watching these guys for a bit...
just saw some news about Russell Westbrook being asked about this game; he picked up a knock last time out, but word is he’ll probably suit up...
@wiredcanyon39/">@@wiredcanyon39 I’d probably lean toward the over 98.5 for Sacramento. Cleveland is missing Varejão, likely no Gibson either, and they've been without Tony Parker for a while too... Varejão is huge for their interior defense, and let's be real, their defense isn't exactly elite anyway (they're giving up nearly 98 points a game). I might even take the over on Sacramento—DeMarcus Cousins could basically feast in the paint tonight, especially since Chris Evans and Thornton haven't really found their rhythm lately...
Benjamin Martin72 said:Look, I mean, you gotta learn how much to play based on gut feeling—but if you go with the wrong gut feeling, man... honestly, if I could just somehow play harder against them than they do against us, we'd be fine. But when Monta Ellis and Stephen Curry start rolling? Man, you're basically screwed for a massive blowout today... N/A
Seriously though... it wasn't even halfway through the second quarter and this guy hits two quick threes and boom—he's already at 23 points and the over is crushed... 🙂 now I can just go ahead and head to bed absolutely livid...
It’s always when I need an under on Monta Ellis that he and Stephen Curry start getting all ball-hoggy and refusing to pass—I mean, Jeremy Lin barely even got five shots off 🙄 It's looking pretty unlikely that Ellis is only gonna drop 5 points in the second half, so I'm just gonna call it a night. Honestly, I'm done stressing over these bets...
lonetiger17 said:Is 2.4 on the Spurs tonight actually any value?
Oh, totally—but man, anything can happen in this league... I mean, objectively speaking, the San Antonio Spurs have more talent, probably better coaching, and a way deeper bench... but you gotta assume these guys are absolutely itching for revenge after getting smoked by about 20 points in their last road game. Now they're back on home soil, so things might just shift.