Posts by Keith Moore21

I’ve been sitting here crunching the numbers and really digging into the data for an under on Monta Ellis (22.5)

edit: I am definitely riding with this under...

The Memphis Grizzlies are just absolute monsters when it comes to guarding the perimeter—especially those shooters. They’ve got some elite defenders in Gordon Hayward and Kevin Mayo who basically specialize in shutting down isolation plays; they handle pick-and-rolls and cuts better than anyone else in the league, too. Plus, Monta Ellis hasn't exactly been playing out of his mind lately, and they seem to be leaning heavily on Bruce Lee, who's looking pretty hot right now. He played maybe 30 minutes in yesterday's game, and normally he averages about 20 points against Memphis... so, yeah, everything seems to point toward him staying under that 22.5 line on SS...

Keith Moore21 said:Dirk Nowitzki over 21.5 (28)
Amar'e Stoudemire over 21.5 (26)

Way to go, Dirk and Amar'e 👋--they actually pulled it off
. That crazy comeback by the Orlando Magic last night really helped us out 😁--it was wild
.

I’m feeling this vibe

Lakers-Suns under 186.5 (Play already called it)
Dirk Nowitzki over 21.5 (They're missing Terry, West, and Beaubois—but honestly, Terry is the big one since he’s basically the primary ball-handler for Dallas. Because of that, I’m eyeing more shots for Nowitzki. They sat yesterday and they're out tomorrow too, so there shouldn't be any weirdness with rotation minutes, plus Philly is pretty shaky defending isolation plays... I’m leaning toward the over here, no doubt)😁
Amaré Stoudemire over 21.5 (The visitors are without Emeka Okafor, Landry, and Smith—all solid guys, and really high-level defenders at that... word is Melo is out for the Knicks, too. If Jeremy Lin wasn't shooting so much, I could see Amare hitting the over, maybe even something like 25 points🙂... plus the Hornets are pretty bad at defending the post-up and the pick-and-roll—perfect for Lin & Amara—not to mention those cuts where the Knicks are actually elite)

Nicholas Chase34 said:SS dropped it down to 17.5 🙄

Hey, SS crowd—I think I’m getting a little turned around here. I mean, wouldn't the actual line really be closer to 30.5 points? Maybe there's a mistake... could someone check that? 🤣 😂 🤷

🤣
Man, they are absolutely pathetic. Just terrible. 🤦

vividbison47 said:the coefficient for LAC dropped from 1.9 down to 1.75 on the latest update-->1.75

I mean, they finally realized why the experts on this thread have been backing Clippse all along, and now they’re totally spooked 😲 🤣

analoghound21 said:Portland vs. L.A. Clippers...so, even though they’ve got the Spurs coming up the day after tomorrow, I’m thinking there’s plenty of enough friction and motivation against Portland for them to take this one seriously—I mean, sure, they finally snapped that six-game skid against Portland with a home win recently, but then they went and dropped one on the road right after, so I reckon they’ll be looking to prove something tonight. As for Portland, they’re staring down their third game in a b2b2b stretch following that weird home loss to the Wizards and last night's nail-biter in Oakland; honestly, though, that win didn't blow me away. They’re still struggling big time with field goal percentages—Felton and Matthews have been pretty much non-existent lately, and Crawford isn't exactly lighting it up either. They got lucky with some three-point shooting last night to keep things even, but who knows if that luck holds out tonight. 🤷
And the Clippers have a pretty jam-packed schedule these days—this is their second game in a back-to-back situation (though last night wasn't exactly a heavyweight bout, just a routine win where they cruised through), and they face the Spurs soon after. That said, I suspect they’re zeroing in on these next two games because if they pull them off, they could snag that #2 seed in the West. Injury-wise, I’d say losing Aldridge is a way bigger deal for Portland than losing Billups for the Clippers, especially since Billups has been out for a bit and they’ve managed to patch things up somewhat with Kenyon Martin.

It would actually be pretty cool if you threw in that little graphic like you did yesterday, just so we can eyeball the stats again. 🙂

Portland:--------------------------L.A.Clippers:

C Camby/K.Thomas----------------D.Jordan
PF G.Wallace----------------------B.Griffin/R.Evans
SF Batum-------------------------C.Butler/R.Gomes
SG Matthews/JCrawford------------R.Foye/K.Martin
PG Felton -------------------------C.Paul/M.Williams

Personally, I’m leaning toward the Clippers here, mostly just because of Portland being on that brutal b2b2b run...
Looking at the numbers, it’s kind of all over the place. For instance, Portland is actually decent at defending the transition, which is basically the Clippers' biggest weapon. On the flip side, they aren't great at defending isolation plays, and I think Paul and Williams might really exploit Felton there, since he isn't exactly known for being a defensive powerhouse. Another thing for the Clippers is the PF spot—I mean, respect to Wallace, but he might be feeling the fatigue tonight, given the heavy minutes he's playing and how he's playing a position that isn't quite his natural fit, especially going up against beasts like Griffin plus having Martin coming off the bench.

Man, Portland is just something else—now that I’ve finally gotten the better of them, they go out and pull off a road win without even having Aldridge on the floor... and then you have Wallace, who everyone's been tearing apart lately for his perimeter play, suddenly turning in the performance of his life on the road. He absolutely went nuts last night—I mean, he was hitting everything from everywhere, finishing 4-4 🙂

And honestly, there wasn't a single draw in the bunch 😢

James Taylor3 said:Man, honestly—it’s not even about losing the parlay for me... I’m just stoked they finally managed to pull off an away win. 😁

Look, I’ve gotta admit, they’re actually one of my favorite teams to watch this season—but man, they are so incredibly inconsistent. They play great one minute and then completely fall apart the next. 🙄
I don't think they'll be showing up on my betting slip anytime soon, I guess. 🙂

wiredcanyon39 said:Don't even act surprised—you know how I roll with these parlay bets. I went 4 for 13 today, which... yeah, pretty much exactly what you'd expect from me. I managed to nail just three picks—Memphis, Minnesota, and Atlanta—and that was about it. 🙂

So then, alright... nothing even weird about that, I guess. 🤣
So, looking at the slate for tomorrow—we've got 11 games lined up—and honestly? I’ve got a feeling we're in for a wild ride. If I had to put money on it, I'd say we're looking at at least three total upsets or straight-up draws... maybe even more if things go sideways. Just a hunch, though. ☕

Are you kidding me with this? Only three measly bucks today?! I guess I’m gonna have to start messing around with the daily specials just to see if I can scrape something together...

James Taylor3 said:taking these -3.5 Warriors as a single—man, that’d be the dream right about now. I mean, look at the Blazers... they're struggling, their form is just totally off, they're dealing with those brutal back-to-back schedules, and let's be real, they have such a terrible track record playing against Golden State at home. Plus, with Aldridge out? It's basically a layup...

I'm probably gonna just single that -3.5☕

wiredcanyon39 said:I’ve been playing around a bit over the last week—nothing super intense, just messing around—but honestly, I feel like if I actually sat down tonight, I could probably put together something pretty legit. 😉

Maybe we can cook up a little scheme... just to get ahead, you know? I mean, nothing too crazy, just some way to come out on top. 😉
Alright, I'm out—gotta go deal with some endless typing. 👋

wiredcanyon39 said:@Last time I hit him, I walked away with some serious cash—fingers crossed it happens again 😁 But lately, I’ve just been playing around like Tommy... yesterday I tried this weird 1/18 system on the whole English Championship, LP, and a few other matches just for kicks, and man, not one single 😍

The odds aren't exactly in your favor, 🤣
you know how it goes—it sounds like a killer idea until you actually try it, but hey, maybe if I run a little system just to cover my bases, I might get lucky and pull a win out of nowhere. 🙂

Brandon Clark5 said:Is Love going over 23 tonight? I mean, if Charlotte can't get him those kinds of numbers, I don't know who can... hopefully he gets decent minutes since they finally had a day off... what do you guys think?

That's an interesting pick... Honestly, Charlotte is one of the absolute worst teams in the league when it comes to defending the paint—you know, protecting the rim and the power forward spot where Love plays—and Love is averaging about 26.6 points at home, so if you're just looking at the stats, it should hit... though, I guess if Minnesota ends up absolutely bullying them, his minutes might take a hit... also, from what I managed to dig up, it looks like their starting PG Augustin might be back in the lineup tonight...

@wiredcanyon39/">@@wiredcanyon39 Did you run some kind of algorithm on X or something?! 😬

Keith Moore21 said:Honestly, these two picks look pretty solid to me

Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Utah Jazz under 200.5
Portland Trail Blazers vs. Washington Wizards under 193.5

First off—looking strictly at the numbers—based on how much OKC scores and allows at home, paired with how the Utah Jazz perform on the road, I’m leaning under. Plus, they're on a brutal b2b2b stretch, so I’m banking on them being gassed and shooting a worse percentage than usual...
Second, I don't know, I just have this gut feeling that the line feels way too high 🤣 and when you look at their head-to-head history, an under seems plausible...

Man, thank god I didn't touch Portland, ended up being a massive over🤣
The first couple hit though, just like I thought—Utah barely hits 35% from the field lately, so the under makes sense🙂

edit: here's one 🙏 for Jeremy Lin

I think these two picks look pretty solid

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Utah Jazz under 200.5
Portland Trail Blazers vs Washington Wizards under 193.5

First off, just looking at the numbers—like how much Oklahoma City Thunder puts up and allows at home versus how Utah Jazz performs on the road—it feels like an under to me. Plus, the Jazz are on a brutal b2b2b stretch, so I’m banking on them being gassed and maybe having a slightly worse shooting percentage than usual...
Second, I don't know, my gut says the line just looks way too high🤣 and when you look at their head-to-head matchups, an under seems totally plausible...

So, looking at how the Philly (-11.5) and Utah (-3.5) spreads actually shook out... ☕

Detroit, screw you ☕

I mean, maybe Aguilar goes under 13.5 today... he doesn't really burn through many possessions anyway, and since I’m expecting a total blowout against the Bobcats, he might end up with pretty limited minutes ☕

Keith Moore21 said:I'm leaning towards the Charlotte Hornets going under 89.5—just a gut feeling, really. Maybe it's too bold, but I think we're looking at a low-scoring affair here.

Keith Moore21 said:I wonder why the guys over at SS decided to pull the total points line for the Charlotte Hornets vs LA Clippers game from the menu? I guess maybe they're seeing some weird movement or just playing it safe—who knows? Honestly, it feels a bit random, but that’s just how it goes sometimes, I suppose. 🙂 🙂

Of course the under hit—86 total points, easy.
Here's one. 🤦 Man, I don't know... personally, I can't say for sure why I didn't get my money in earlier—maybe I was just overthinking things too much, or maybe I was waiting for a better line to pop up. Honestly, I guess I just missed the window.
I’m absolutely cleaning house against those losers over at SS. 🙂

Keith Moore21 said:I went ahead and took the Dallas Mavericks -4.5 spread myself. ☕

Man, I went all in on this one and still managed to blow it... honestly, what a joke. 🙂 🙂

Edit: For today, I'm leaning toward the Boston Celtics going under 85.5... looks like another scrap with the Chicago Bulls, and honestly, I’m expecting a real grind-it-out, physical game. They faced off just under a month ago in Boston, and that one ended 79-88 in favor of Chicago—though keep in mind the Celtics had their full squad then, while the Bulls were missing Rip Hamilton (and he’s sitting out again today too)... though we still have to wait and see if Derrick Rose actually suits up or not.

Bryan Adams6 said:not me, so I guess you guys are good to go 🤣

LA Clippers + Blake Griffin over 21.5 ☕

I was actually looking at taking the Clippers spread myself, but honestly, after they messed with me on the lines earlier, I'm just staying far away from this game 🙂
fingers crossed everything hits for us 👍

I went ahead and took the Dallas -4.5 spread myself ☕