Posts by Joshua Gonzalez33

Russell Westbrook under 24.5 @1.85
Monta Ellis under 23.5 @1.85
Carlos Boozer over 14.5 @1.85
LaMarcus Aldridge over 20.5 @1.85

@11.71

Hoping for a total blowout for R.W., plus Luol Deng isn't bad on defense. Taking Ellis since Stephen Curry is moving back into the starting lineup and he's averaging around 22. Going with Boozer because they're missing Luol Deng and Rip Hamilton, and the Utah Jazz are struggling against forwards. Aldridge because the Washington Wizards don't defend the four very well—if he could drop 22 against KGA, he can definitely do it against a weak Washington squad. Plus, this looks like a 200+ point game.

Joshua Gonzalez33 said:Anyway, getting back to the topic—here are a few US picks nobody’s mentioned yet.

Batum over 14.5 @1.85 👎 (avoiding the blowout)
-Aldridge is going to have a tough time against KG and Bass. Wallace probably won't do much, and Felton isn't really an option either since Rondo is in the mix, so I could see Batum hitting around 20 points.

Philadelphia -12.5 @3.30 👍
-Worth a shot. Philadelphia is just a much stronger squad overall, and you have to look at that time they beat Boston by a 32 point lead.

Boston-Portland under 184.5 @1.85 👎 (avoiding the blowout)
-The line is lower than what I'm seeing at overseas books. This should be a defensive battle; 4 of their last 5 matchups went under this number.

Oklahoma-Cleveland under 203.5 @1.85 👍
-Both teams are playing high-scoring ball this season, but it's worth a look since their last 8 meetings all stayed under this limit. Plus, Oklahoma might pull away early and slow the tempo in the 4th. Seems worth a try to me.

Charlotte-Nets 1 @2.05 👎 can't believe they didn't win this when Deron Williams went down
-Some day they barely scraped past the Nets thanks to a 57-point performance from Williams, but they probably won't have another night like that. Besides, Charlotte has been looking sharp since their guys returned from injury.

Milwaukee-Knicks 1 @2.05 👍
-Look, I'm pulling for the Knicks, but this is a solid play. Milwaukee has won 7 of their last 8, and without Chandler, Ilyasova and Gooden might just run wild in the paint.

Sacramento-Dallas over 196.5 @1.85 👍
-Just look at their recent history—aside from the very last one, they've consistently cleared 200+. Both these teams love to score, especially the home side.

Good luck tonight...

🤷

Roger Phillips said:Corey Maggette over
Last three games: -25, -29, -24 points.
The Nets are giving up points left and right at small forward, so Corey should hit his over pretty easily.
Plus, Maggette plays way better at home—averaging 17.5 compared to just 13.8 on the road.
In the last matchup, he dropped 24 on the Nets.
Totally expecting an easy win here.

A. Jamison over
Dude is on fire right now. He put up 33, 22, and 29 in his last three, and in his last ten, he’s cleared his over 8 or 9 times.
They're playing Oklahoma, a game where we're looking at a high-scoring affair (200+), and when the total goes over 200, Jamison averages about 24.3.
Oklahoma also lets PFs rack up about 22.2 points per game.
GL.

🤣

Aldridge and Deron Williams, everything went south 😲

Mark Williams15 said:I'll just play Duncan, Pierce, and Deron Williams and see what happens.

Honestly, I don't have much to say about Duncan. 🙂He's been totally unpredictable this year.

shadowjackal27 said:Everything points toward Boston. I've been thinking about it.
But honestly, that 1.65 line on Boston feels a bit sketchy to me..🙂
I don't know. Either way, I'm taking the spread on Portland.
Not expecting more than 190 total points, just a gritty game. We'll see.

If you really think Portland might hang around, I'd say betting the 2-point underdog at @2.30 is a better move than taking +3.5 at @1.85. Long term, those small spreads aren't worth it compared to the value there.🤷 Personally, I could see this one dropping under 184.5, which is what SS has set.

wiredcanyon39 said:Rubio over 9.5 @ 1.85
6/10
Rubio's been playing great aside from his assist numbers he's had some killer drives lately, and we all know the Lakers have a massive hole in their defense at the PG spot, so he could easily drop more points than usual today

Deron Williams over 24.5 @ 1.85
7/10
Deron just hit a career high in the last matchup between these two, plus the Bobcats give up way too many points to PGs, so Deron might have a wild night tonight—not quite like a few days ago, but definitely an over play😍

I'm not saying your picks won't hit (honestly, I like both, especially the second one), but some of this just doesn't add up.

1)The Lakers are actually among the best in the NBA at defending the PG position. Rubio has gone 3-8, 1-7, and 1-8 over his last three games, and in two of those, he only managed 4 or 6 assists, which is honestly depressing.
2)Charlotte is pretty much mid-tier in the NBA when it comes to allowing points to PGs.

James Taylor3 said:I get it, stats don't lie, but they don't tell the whole story either. Fisher is a liability on defense—opposing guards are absolutely shredding him. On the flip side, I just read somewhere that Rubio is ranked as the second fastest player in the league (right behind Parker); I'll drop the link if I can find it. A huge reason why the Lakers' perimeter defense holds up is their frontcourt, especially Bynum. He’s such a beast at rim protection and blocking shots that most guys give that Lakers interior a wide berth and think twice about driving.

Signature. 👍

Alright, since I'm on a roll, let me quote you one more time:

True, and honestly, maybe we should look at taking the under on Pierce too. Given how he's been playing lately, the ceiling is definitely high. But he's got a rough night ahead—he's going up against two elite defenders, Batum and Wallace.

1) Look, I know Fisher isn't much, and neither is Blake, which is a massive hole for the Lakers. If they had a legit playmaker, they might actually be the best team in the league. That said, their guard defense is surprisingly solid, and since they only put up 8 points combined over the first two games, I seriously doubt they'll go over on Rubio tonight.

2) As for Pierce, maybe we take the under there too because of those defensive matchups, plus I'm not expecting a massive scoring outburst. Rondo might even pull another triple-double out of nowhere tonight. It feels logical to bet Allen over 14.5 since the Portland defense doesn't handle SGA that well, but I keep getting burned by Boston players—they defy all logic, so I'm staying away from them tonight.

stormyseal9 said:I thought I didn't have to worry about an X when there isn't anyone playing my style, but you misunderstood me. I meant I felt like it was a toss-up between a win or a loss, not like playing a standard spread where you're sweating the X😍. As for betting on favorites, I wouldn't say I always do that; I actually take the underdog quite often if I think the handicap is right. And regarding Batum, hasn't someone else already outplayed him? haha

👍

Man, I totally missed the part about Batum. And yeah, ever since I tried to cover the spread for Atlanta against Miami and ended up losing a ton of money because I didn't hit the win/tie, I don't really bet on game outcomes much anymore. I mostly just bet on player props now.

stormyseal9 said:I wasn't saying I'd always take the spread on Boston just because their odds never dip below 1.85. I just mean when I stick to spreads, totals, or game time, I avoid the stress of chasing parlay slips or worrying about a push.It's either a win or a loss, nothing else. 🤷But look, there’s no such thing as a sure thing in sports; everything depends on the matchup and how they show up that day.🤷Our job is just to hit them when we can, which takes a mix of staying on top of the teams and having a little bit of luck on our side.😉Anyway, good luck with whatever you decide to play.

When you're betting on favorites, playing the spread is definitely the smarter move. You lose way too much cash just hunting moneyline wins. That's just solid logic.

But man, you cracked me up with that bolded part. 🤣 It’s always like that, whether you're playing totals and spreads or anything else.

Alright, let's get back to the topic. Here are a few picks from the USA that nobody has posted yet.

Batum Over 14.5 @1.85
-Aldridge is going to have his hands full against KG and Bass. Wallace probably won't do much, and Felton isn't great either, but since Rondo is there, I can see Batum hitting around 20 points.
Philadelphia -12.5 @3.30
-Worth a shot. Philly is just a much stronger team overall, and you really have to take this one given they beat Boston by a 32 point lead recently.
Boston-Portland Under 184.5 @1.85
-The line is lower than what I'm seeing at overseas books. I'm expecting a defensive battle here; 4 of the last 5 matchups have stayed under this number.
Oklahoma-Cleveland Under 203.5 @1.85
-Both teams have been playing high-scoring ball lately, but it's worth a try because the last 8 meetings have all gone under. Plus, Oklahoma might pull away early and slow the tempo down in the 4th. Seems like a solid play to me.
Charlotte-Nets 1 @2.05
-Some day they barely scraped a win against the Nets with Williams only putting up 57. Hard to imagine them having another night that good, especially since Charlotte is finding their rhythm now that the injured guys are back.
Milwaukee-Knicks 1 @2.05
-Look, I'm pulling for the Knicks, but you can't ignore this. Milwaukee has won 7 of their last 8, and without Chandler, Ilyasova and Gooden might just run wild in the paint.
Sacramento-Dallas Over 196.5 @1.85
-Just look at their previous matchups—aside from the most recent one, they've been clearing 200+ easily. Both squads love to play fast, especially the home team.

Good luck tonight, everyone...

wiredcanyon39 said:1. True, but I’m skeptical Rubio hits at least 10 against an aging Fisher.
2. They aren't really middle-of-the-road 19th regarding points allowed, and given their overall defense is ranked 28th, I think Deron hits the over.😁

Fair enough on point one, I was just pointing out where your logic felt a bit shaky.

As for the second part, my math puts the "middle" anywhere from 10 to 20, so sure, you could call them bottom half—but 🤣 you previously said Charlotte has bad defense, ESPECIALLY at PG, so you kind of contradicted yourself with that bolded part. And honestly, I think Deron has a great shot at the over; what's changed since he dropped 57 the other day?🤷

p.s. If you haven't placed your bet yet, let me try to talk you out of the Rubia over. He only put up 8 total points in those two games against the Lakers, so the value is definitely on the under if you ask me.

crimsonangler1 said:Are you kidding me right now? 🤷

No. ☕

crimsonangler1 said:so you're basically a beast then 😁

Bosh was out there, Denver’s rebounding defense is solid, and Parker kept Lin under 50% shooting and stuck him at just 4 assists—which isn't even bad. Ellis took 19 shots even with Curry on the floor. Something's not adding up. 🤷

Edward Gonzalez36 said:What do you guys think about Garnett and Pierce going under tonight?

Thanks!

Pierce is looking sharp, but he's facing Iguodala, who I’d say is basically the best defender in the league at those wing positions. It's a toss-up, but since Boston has plenty of other weapons, they won't have to force it through Pierce, so I'm leaning under. Garnett has a tough matchup too, though he could always go over because, well, he's KG—not something I'd bet on. Personally, I'm expecting the total to stay under 177.5, so logically, everyone should be an under play for me. 🤷

Looks like tonight’s gonna be a big one... Yesterday I played a single parlay and missed by just one leg

BetMGM
Odds: 1.85
Pick: Deron Williams over 23.5

Deron Williams dropped 57 points once this season, and honestly, he's been heating up big time over the last month. His average sits at 22.5, but you have to note he actually averages closer to 23.9 when playing on the road. Two reasons I’m taking this: first, without Brook Lopez in the lineup, Deron is definitely going to hunt for more shots. Second, Miami has the worst point guard defense in the league right now—Wade might step up, but his defense isn't exactly elite, and even if he plays, he's dealing with that recent concussion scare. I don't see anyone else leading the charge for the Nets tonight, especially with Bosh returning to the paint 😍().

Alright, throw me a couple of picks. I’m gonna drop some cash now and then circle back later to break down what happened...

Joshua Gonzalez33 said:Sportsbook: DraftKings
Odds: 1.85
Pick: Dirk Nowitzki over 22.5 👍

Dirk’s been decent lately, though he barely played against Memphis and dropped 19 against New Orleans—but let's be real, New Orleans defends the PF spot pretty well, giving up about 19.4 points there per game. They even gave up 40 to Utah last outing. Looking at his matchups against OKC this season, he’s put up 8, 26, and 29; basically just missed the mark once. Oklahoma is struggling to defend the PF position and the paint in general, allowing 22.1 points on average to guys in Dirk's spot. He’s been averaging over 23 these last 10 games, so I think he hits the over tonight, especially since OKC games usually turn into high-scoring affairs.

Sportsbook: DraftKings
Odds: 2.00
Pick: Griffin vs. Howard, Howard 👍

Found an interesting matchup here; looks like a value play to me. Odds are sitting at 2.00. Howard has been scoring 28, 33, and 14 over his last three. Honestly, feels like he's putting in more work lately than he was at the start of the season. He's averaging 21 over his last 10, and facing Toronto tonight shouldn't be too bad since they aren't great defending the center position—they're actually 11th in points allowed at center. He had 19 against them in their first meeting, but he was dealing with Bargnani then, and since Bargnani’s been out injured for a while, Howard should have an easier time.
On the flip side, Griffin hasn't looked great since the All-Star break, posting 14, 17, and 14 in his last three against teams with mediocre interior defense. He’s also struggled on back-to-backs, averaging just 18 points, and he’s coming off an overtime game yesterday, so fatigue is definitely a factor. Facing Minnesota tonight is tough, especially with Love playing lights out against Portland. Griffin usually does well against Minnesota, but I think the exhaustion might bite him tonight.

Sportsbook: FanDuel
Odds: 1.85
Pick: Kyrie Irving over 18.5 👍

Irving has been rolling with 20, 22, and 24 points over his last three. He’s been on fire since the All-Star weekend, where he led the charge during the Rising Stars game with 38 points. With Vareja still out, he's taking more shots, and I think Millsap and Jefferson can handle Jamison in the paint. Utah is tied for 2nd in the league for points allowed to point guards, along with Miami and Memphis, giving up 21.1 per game. This one likely goes over 200 total since both teams allow a ton of points; their first matchup ended 113-105, where Kyrie scored 20. When Cleveland breaks 100, Kyrie averages 21.7 (his overall average is 18.5), and Utah is even worse at defending PGs when opponents score 100+, ranking dead last in the league by giving up 25.7. Seems like a clear over to me.

Good luck, I'd personally lean toward Irving or Dirk earlier.

Everything went south. If I’d just put it on Denver as a single, I would’ve been fine, but oh well.🙂

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