Posts by Ethan Jones5

Chelsea vs. Arsenal, Over 2.5 goals @1.65 DraftKings

Chelsea is looking slightly sharper than their local rivals right now, and they’ll definitely be pushing to extend that 4-point lead over Arsenal in the race for the Champions League spot.

On the other hand, Arsenal doesn't sit back and park the bus; they consistently find the back of the net in league play.

Recent matchups between these two clubs have almost always been high-scoring affairs with plenty of action on both sides, so I expect a similar shootout today.

Gareth Bale to score @2.50 DraftKings

Bale is basically carrying Chelsea on his back at the moment. His incredible form speaks for itself—he's bagged 8 goals in his last 6 matches.

Since Chelsea tends to play an open, attacking style in derbies just like they always do, I'm confident Bale will find a way to score using his massive arsenal of shots.

rustydrifter10 said:Not quite. You can have partial access to specific sub-files while still maintaining root access and entry to other sub-files. However, you can't have partial access to the root file itself without automatically gaining access to all its sub-files, since granting partial rights to the root essentially covers everything contained within it.

Ethan Jones5, you just got hit with a partial on US Soccer.

Thanks, rustydrifter10 and Alex Cook🙂

Shout out to vm007 and wiredcanyon39 for the fake support too.☕

Later.👋

Alex Cook said:Just so you know, getting partial access to the FIFA section automatically gives you partial access to the entire Soccer PDF. Are you still sticking to your request? Maybe take a few days off and cool down?

I'm sticking to my guns because I barely ever visit the main Soccer PDF anyway. But, if it turns out you can't do it exactly how the guy from the USA suggested, then just give me partial access to everything instead.👍

The decision isn't being made in a heat of the moment, so don't worry about it. There are plenty of solid arguments for partial access, so I’m standing by my request.😉

Could the moderators please grant me access to the FIFA section?

I’m not sure if I need to go into detail, but here’s the gist...

The state of US Soccer is a complete mess right now—from the leadership at the Democratic Party all the way down to the players on the pitch. Honestly, I just end up getting worked up over the sheer stupidity of it all, but it's a hard habit to break.

Anyway, I hope this isn't an issue, since similar requests have been approved before.👍

Adam Williams2 said:Everyone is pulling in opposite directions here, but honestly, it’s probably going to end in a draw. One side has the raw talent, while the other has that youthful energy and great momentum. A tie would actually leave most people satisfied. Even the oddsmakers can't make a call—the lines for both sides are identical. 🤷

I play on DraftKings.😉

Look, the reason the team lost that match wasn't because of a shaky defense; it was the midfield. Honestly, it's not surprising given they had one guy playing defensive mid while basically running with just two holding players, Miller and Davis, trying to link everything together through Taylor and Walker, all while leaving a rookie, Bennett, alone up front.

Today’s lineup features Varga-Smith-Jones—plus Taylor—with Walker and Bennett leading the attack. That is a massive shift from the previous setup of Smith-Davis-Miller-Taylor and Walker-Bennett.

It's like how the Galaxy doesn't play the same without Beckham. Even though I think the backline matters less than the core engine, look at the difference: having Miller-Stone-Davis-Walker is a much tighter unit than what we have now with Garcia-Martinez-Davis-Walker. Miller and Stone are clearly more solid defensively than Garcia and Martinez.

My point is, the midfield is everything. Right now, the Galaxy's midfield looks significantly weaker than our guys, so I don't see them walking away with all three points. We'll see who was right about that later.

LA Galaxy vs. LAFC - Draw 1x @1.55 SS

The Galaxy showed exactly what they're capable of last round. This squad can definitely hold their own against LAFC, especially playing at home where the visitors haven't tasted victory since back in 2007.

Everything looks solid for the Galaxy, though I am curious to see how the defensive pairing of Miller and Nichols will shake out since their top three center-backs are sidelined. The rest of the roster is fully available and ready to give it everything for the home crowd.

After stumbling against Portland, LAFC bounced back by absolutely crushing a lackluster Seattle side 4-0 on the road. They'll be missing Pamić tonight, and there are even unofficial rumors floating around that Simunic might be a doubt too.

In terms of pure quality, these two teams are dead even right now, but the Galaxy have a massive home-field advantage, while LAFC has to deal with an environment they aren't used to. Plus, LAFC hasn't managed to walk away with a win in Los Angeles in nine straight matches, despite having a statistically superior roster. I don't see them pulling it off tonight.

Slaven Belupo vs. Inter Zaprešić

After getting completely outclassed by the Split FC, Slaven is also left without Bubnjić, who alongside Kokalović holds that defense together—because Maras and Pranjić definitely aren't up to par.

The biggest issue for Slaven remains their thin midfield, which is absolutely gutted by injuries. Bringing in Jugović isn't going to do much to help the ball movement through the center, which looked catastrophic against the Split side despite the poor pitch conditions.

On the other hand, Inter was stuck in a deadlocked match before Zadar snatched a goal from a set piece in the 88th minute. Given how the Yellows play at home this season against weaker teams, the loss isn't surprising at all.

However, they perform much better on the road, managing only 4 losses in 10 matches where they picked up 10 points "on the road."

Beyond bolstering the roster with big names like Delač, Pokrivač, and Hadžić, they’ve had a very solid preseason that should start paying off soon.

The field is going to be rough again, which should actually favor the visitors. They play much more defensively away from home than they do at home, and in my opinion, they could walk away with at least a point from this matchup.

James Taylor3 is already hyping up everything for the Olhanenses, so I'm not even going to bother typing 👍

Besides, I'm just not in the mood to write much today..

Manchester City vs Liverpool, 1 @2 SS

United is already sitting at +10, so City can't afford any slip-ups. They've been playing solid lately, especially on the defensive end, and they should pull this one off. Liverpool is playing decent enough, given what we've grown used to seeing, but they aren't quite as formidable on the road as they are at Anfield...

Valencia vs Barcelona, Over 3.5 goals @2 SS

Barca basically has the title locked up, so they're playing way more relaxed now—you can see it in the high scoring numbers from their last few league games. Valencia has nothing to lose other than the chance to play spoiler against Barca, and they need the points, so I’m expecting an open game with plenty of goals.

Leverkusen vs Dortmund, 2 @2.20

Leverkusen is one point ahead of Dortmund, but Dortmund started the spring strong with two convincing wins and an 8-0 aggregate score. It's obvious they're stepping on the gas to secure
the Champions League while the schedule is still relatively easy..

Lisa Ramos59 said:Hey, I see a ton of Europa League matches today. Anyone got suggestions on goal counts? Which games do you think will be high-scoring—specifically Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5?

Anzhi Makhachkala vs Liverpool FC looks like a solid bet..

Last time it ended 1-0, but that was because Liverpool played their strongest lineup while Anzhi sat deep in defense. Today, the Americans playing in Russia will be pushing for the win, and Liverpool's subs will definitely be hungry to score to prove they deserve a spot in the starting XI..

Even jadedrifter28 feels the same way, so we probably shouldn't miss out on both scoring.. I'm going to tweak the parlay a bit now; I just wrote this dream down yesterday..

Still, I won't stick strictly to this one pair for today. I don't like forcing the Europa League; it always ends badly for me..

Terry Carter2 said:Just a reminder!

I think it’s time to start working on a Plan B...

It looks like the regulars around here have zero interest in voting. Honestly, you've only got three real choices left: open this up to everyone who actually cares, scrap the Survey and just run the championship yourself, or just call the whole thing off. Those are pretty much your only options at this point, unfortunately.🤷

The Survey has been live for two weeks now and basically only Sep is participating. This whole thing is becoming pointless..

Jesse Brown12 said:Analysis: 35
Status: 22w/12l (+23.33 units)
Pick: Hajduk-Split under 2.5
Odds: 1.65
Betting Shop: Supersport
Time: 10/31/2012, 15:00

Matches between these two clubs almost always end under. Their last two meetings both wrapped up 1-0. I don't expect anything different today. Hajduk will be hunting for that quarterfinal spot in front of their home crowd, while Split wants to prove they can outplay their big neighbors. Hajduk has been struggling to find the back of the net lately, and word is that after a long layoff, the center-back križanac is returning for Split—his experience should definitely bolster their backline.

Looking at how these two have played recently, I wouldn't even be shocked if we saw a 0-0 finish.

Wager: 6/10

I have to say, I disagree with your take. Honestly, I was just about to write up an analysis for the over, but you beat me to it.

Split is definitely going to play more openly since this is a cup match and there's no room for playing it safe, especially seeing as they're bringing križanac back into the lineup after being out all year.

Hajduk always plays an open game at home, so expect the same tonight.

The reason they have such a history of "under" results is simply because Split constantly parks the bus against Hajduk, even when they're trailing, only opening up in the final 15 minutes.

But I won't turn this into a full-blown analysis; we'll see in a few hours who was right.

William Bennett53 said:cosmicridge5, you should definitely vote for the option that imposes financial penalties for dropping out mid-season. That way, you might actually force redheron12 to stick with the championship even after he hits that first inevitable slump once the season kicks off. Of course, there’s no guarantee it would work and he could still bail, but at least then—in the spirit of gender equality—we could view his penalty payments as a form of forum alimony. 😁 🤣

Ethan Jones5, are you planning to vote for yourself, or are you waiting until the other players and candidates have made their moves?

Look, I’m not going to go out and vote for myself. For heaven's sake, we aren't politicians.

cosmicridge5 said:So just list the key differences then😬

Seriously though, I think that might actually encourage more people to vote, because most folks probably don't have the patience for long reads anyway😬

My system is completely different, and honestly, trying to highlight the differences from what’s already out there is a struggle because you guys aren't actually playing by the book—you're just skimming through the strategy. Here it is; read it if you want. It won't take long, and it won't hurt anyone.😉

The scoring system.

Race winner. 2 points
Stand. 6 points (3x2)
Driver standings 20 points (10x2)
Fastest lap. 2 points
10 driver duels 20 points (10x2)

Total possible points: 50

Race winner, podium finishers, and top point scorers.

The penalties handed down by the FIA after the race are officially counted.
It’s not about predicting exactly which driver finishes where; you're just betting on whether they make the podium or land somewhere in the top ten, regardless of their specific rank.

duels

The winner from the previous round has to set up 10 duels for the upcoming race at least 7 days in advance.
A driver can be involved in a maximum of three duels.
If both drivers pull out, the duel is canceled.

Box

Each driver is allowed a maximum of three pit stops before the race officially kicks off.
During a single pit stop, you're only allowed to make up to two changes to your prediction.
Whenever a player hits the pit box, they automatically lose one point from their total score.

Setting pairs

You can set your race pairs starting from the beginning of the GP weekend on Monday, right up until five minutes before the lights go out.
Once the points are tallied and we have a tie, the advantage goes to those who... They set the pairs earlier. And they're moving up in the rankings too.

Scoring:

The scoring system is identical to what they use in F1 (25-18-15-12...).
When points are tied, the tiebreaker comes down to who has more wins, then second-place finishes, third-place, and so on.
Teams with a maximum of two members score points just like they do in F1.

Sanctions

Dropping out of a competition mid-season—especially after missing two races without a legitimate excuse—is grounds for an immediate expulsion. You'll also be blacklisted, which means you're barred from participating in any future competitions on this subforum.

-Any cheating attempts will result in an F1 sanction consisting of a 10-point deduction from that round's total score. If a user is caught twice, they’ll be kicked out of the competition entirely and face the same penalties as someone who officially withdraws (see above)

Competition Topics

-In my opinion, the official thread should strictly be for posting predictions and pit stops so everything stays organized in one spot. Let's just open a separate chat topic for all the actual discussions

cosmicridge5 said:I’d love to share my thoughts, but honestly, I don't really feel like digging through all those different sets of rules myself. 😬 Could someone maybe give me a quick summary of how they differ? 😁

Look, Terry Carter2 already summarized his points... mine are already as brief as they can possibly be, and Matthew Young35 kept his pretty concise too..

Hopefully Douglas Patel32 will wrap up his thoughts soon because his posts are getting pretty long as well...

Nicholas Palmer75 said:All this talk about match-fixing and betting huge sums at European bookies is just pure nonsense. Sure, BetMGM might let you drop 1 or 2k Euro on the Champions League, but if you try that on an American league or anything from the old North America region, you aren't getting past 500 or 600 Euro. Like what theinator said, those kinds of bets happen through Asian bookies—some are legal, some aren't, like DraftKings. They work by having your own agent there; you basically call them up, tell them how much you want on a specific game, and they handle the placement for you. If you want to go big, you have to "order" the bet and wait for authorization.

Look, I don't even gamble online, I was just thinking out loud here.😁

James Taylor3 said:Are you serious?

Why are we considered "high risk"?

Probably because of some mafia fixing games and sending money in from overseas.🤷

That’s the only explanation that actually makes sense to me..

Larry Fox5 said:Are you kidding me? 🤷
I just realized it now, but regardless, I beat you guys to calling all three outcomes. 🙂

Man, someone give me a bonus for betting on Spud with these half-baked predictions. Every time I post something up top, I miss the mark. 😢

You could also track the status for pairs outside of Spud here.🤷

That's exactly what I do, except I don't bother with parlays, just singles...

Roger Phillips said:Both sides to score in Manchester City vs Sunderland: 2.00
Given how City has been playing lately and throughout this season, it makes sense to bet on them conceding at least one goal.
They’ve conceded in every single match they've played this season (Premier League, Champions League, League Cup).
The only game where Sunderland failed to score was at the Emirates (0-0).
Fletcher is playing brilliantly upfront; today they are the underdogs and can play with nothing to lose against City.
There's value here.

I actually took Sunderland to score at 1.70, so we'll see...

Anyway, all my parlays are already 3+ legs deep, so the difference in odds doesn't matter much to me..

Regardless, these games kick off in just 15 minutes.. gotta go find a replacement..

Larry Fox5 said:Here’s another solid pick for you.

Wigan vs. Everton

Wigan has been struggling big time, picking up just one win, one draw, and four losses in their last six outings. They’ve actually dropped three straight. On the flip side, Everton is on fire right now—it's no accident they're sitting in second place. In their last six games, they’ve grabbed four wins, a loss, and a draw, including two straight victories. Honestly, they’re playing with so much momentum and confidence right now that they could easily walk into away territory and snatch all three points without breaking a sweat. They’re looking sharp, while Wigan is just a weak squad that will find it hard to stay competitive here.

In my book, Everton is a much heavier favorite against Wigan on the road than Arsenal is against West Ham United.

I checked their head-to-head stats too; it's 2:5:7 in favor of Everton, so there's no reason to fear an upset.🙂

I actually noted this dream scenario down myself, but I didn't feel like doing the deep dive earlier. I’ll dig into the numbers more tomorrow, but this could definitely be a winner on a parlay.

Besides, Wigan traditionally starts their seasons terribly. They usually spend the first few months just trying to survive, so this might actually be a decent way for them to kick things off—if I recall correctly, they only had one point after six rounds last year.

And don't even get me started on West Ham United, unless you want Kockar to take you to task.😬

Daniel Edwards said:I’d honestly rather take the 1.8 odds on a Liverpool win. They’re playing solid soccer, they just haven't had any luck lately. This bet is on a team that’s struggling and has only managed two goals in five matches.🤷

Look, Liverpool always struggles when they have to force the action against weaker sides, and their defense? Don't even get me started.

For me, this side of the bet makes way more sense. Betting on Liverpool to win away from home at these odds just isn't a smart play compared to this.🤷

But hey, to each their own.👍