Soccer Betting Tips & Discussion

I highly doubt anyone's going to be playing it safe in a high-stakes matchup like this one 🤷

I'm with Eric Fox7 on this one.
Here is the take from Coach Miller:

The US side has been picking up quite a few yellows—and Iceland isn't exactly playing clean either—but Miller isn't expecting anyone to play soft here.

"I can’t recall the last time we had this many bookings heading into a massive game, though I know the Icelanders are in the same boat. We can't afford to play like it's a basketball game out there. We can't take stupid cards, obviously, but if a tactical foul is required to stay in the game, we'll take the yellow and move on. That's why we have such depth on the roster."

Currently, several key players—including names like Modric, Mandzukic, Corluka, Eduardo, Kranjcar, Schildenfeld, Rakitic, Vrsaljko, Jelavic, and Kovacic—are facing potential suspension for the return leg.

And a quick look at the referee:

There is a significant distinction between what Coach Miller claims and what will actually be weighing on the players' minds tonight. I am certain that every single one of them will have their hearts set on winning the rematch. I'm not suggesting we won't see five or more yellow cards flying around, but frankly, I wouldn't want to be out there on the pitch under those circumstances. Regardless, best of luck to the team...

Fluminense vs. Sao Paulo: Home Win @ 1.70 (2-1)

The giants from Rio—who happen to be the defending champs—are in a massive hole right now, basically fighting for their lives to stay in the league with just four matches left. Meanwhile, Sao Paulo is sitting comfortably mid-table, though they’ve got zero chance of making the playoffs. The home side absolutely has to pull this one off if they want to finally string two wins together—they did manage to scrape one against Nautica last week—especially since their schedule looks like a nightmare through the end of the season.

Strasbourg vs. Nancy: Away Win @ 2.10 (1-2)

The home team is struggling hard here—it feels like just yesterday they were playing in the big leagues, but now they're fighting just to keep their spot in the third division. Their form is honestly abysmal; they haven't seen a win in over two months. On the flip side, Nancy is playing some really solid football and looks like they're on a direct path back to the top tier.
I have a feeling the home side cares way more about staying in the third division than they do about some cup trophy 🤷

Avellino vs. Juve Stabia: Home Win @ 1.85 (2-1)

I’m actually a bit surprised by how high the odds are for the home side. They're currently sitting in 4th in the second division—and a win here would actually put them tied for first place—yet they've been playing pretty poorly lately. Then you look at Juve Stabia, who are dead last and haven't tasted victory in two months. It seems like a mismatch.

I think I'll try to play all three of these with the point spreads too.

Atlético Nacional vs. Millonarios Over 2.5 goals @ 2.25 (1:0)

Second leg of the cup final here—the first match ended in a 2-2 draw, and looking back at their recent history, 6 of the last 9 meetings have cleared the over 2.5 line. Both sides tend to play this wide-open style where they score plenty but can't seem to keep a clean sheet to save their lives. Plus, these are basically the two heavyweights from the first half of the season.

Blooming SC vs. Strongest Over 2.5 goals @ 1.9 (1:1)

A matchup in the Bolivian league that I don't know a whole lot about, other than the fact that goals tend to fly in there pretty regularly. The visitors are the favorites and they play an aggressive, open game—they've actually seen 50 goals dropped in just 15 rounds of matches. Even their head-to-head history suggests a shootout; the last five times these two met, they pumped out 25 goals, which is a wild average of 5 per game.

crimsonpuma23 said:The Powerball is offering some decent 1.50 odds on a higher ball possession percentage for the US. I think I might play, but what do you guys think? I usually stay away from these kinds of promos because they feel like a total gimmick, but maybe I just can't help myself. 😁

By what logic would Iceland end up with more ball possession than us? 😕

I played this last time since it looked like a killer deal right off the bat. I’d probably do it again, but I'm not sure if they actually list the ball possession stats anywhere in the offer? Looking at the Powerball site now, and it's still not there.

I’ve got a feeling they won't actually put that on the market until tomorrow

Tuesday, Nov 19, 2013
Friendly Match
2:30 AM

USA - Brazil Over 2.5 goals + 1.90 (2:0)

I suppose I’m only picking this because it’s just a friendly.
Both sides play a very attacking style of football, and their forwards are clearly the strongest part of both squads.
Since they're playing in St. Louis on neutral ground, we should expect an entertaining match with plenty of chances for both sides,
so I guess some goals are likely rather than a dull, defensive tactical grind.

Tuesday Sweden vs. Portugal: Both teams to score (1.80 at FanDuel) (2-3)

Portugal’s sitting pretty after that first leg, which means Sweden is backed into a corner. They have to win this one to stay alive. Considering they absolutely tore through the German defense with seven goals over two games, you’d be crazy not to expect them to find the back of the net here. On the flip side, Portugal is lethal on the counterattack, so don't be surprised when they sneak one in too.

stormyharbor13 said:Tuesday, Nov 19, 2013
Friendly Match
2:30 AM

USA vs. Brazil - Over 3.5 goals @ 1.90

That line is probably from some local sportsbook—the kind that always seems to have the worst odds on high-scoring games—because even DraftKings is sitting at @ 2.05
Look, I’m with you on the vibe, but personally, I’d lean toward the underdog scoring a goal @ 1.60 (2:0), though it might be worth a shot with the underdog actually winning @ 6.50 (2:0). They're riding this massive wave of euphoria after that historic World Cup qualification, while for the Americans, this is just another Tuesday—they'll likely show up underprepared and overconfident. Plus, the stands will be packed with the diaspora—there's a huge community out in places like Chicago or St. Louis—so I'm expecting a hell of a performance from them.

Does any sportsbook have the ball possession market open for the USA vs. Iceland game today? I saw it listed on DraftKings during the first match, but now I can't find it anywhere.

The US is playing a friendly against Slovakia today.

Gibraltar? Are you kidding me?

Taking Slovakia at a -3.5 handicap at 1.80 odds (starting from 0-0) —should be a safe bet.

This is basically all I could find on this "national team." They lose to random islanders from the Azores, teams from the Faroe Islands, and amateur squads from Scotland. 🤣

Unless they pull an absolute disaster along the lines of San Marino, I don't see how Slovakia doesn't cruise through this, regardless of who they field. 🤷

USA (T.R.) vs. Iceland 2:0 @6,50 SS (2-0) Standard☕

The first leg went exactly how you’d expect. Iceland started off stronger, but then the Americans took control. Still, the play was incredibly dull and kept deadlocked at 0-0. Tonight, I’m expecting an even more defensive approach from Iceland—they know one massive blunder could cost them a spot in the World Cup—but I honestly think they'll struggle to find a mistake to exploit. Our guys look incredibly motivated and, more importantly, really disciplined on the back end..

I think our offense is capable of finding the net once. Plus, having the home crowd behind us should make things a lot easier. If Iceland manages to score early, I expect us to respond immediately, and then it’ll just be a tactical chess match until the final whistle. It’s also driving me crazy that the first game ended 0-0; let's see if they can actually produce something today..

Casey Campbell said:Is there any sportsbook actually offering ball possession for the USA vs. Iceland game today? It was available on DraftKings during the first match, but now I can't find it anywhere.

It’s gone because obviously the bookies don't want us taking that bet. They probably would've set the odds at like 1.20 or 1.30 today if they did. But look, you could go with something like USA to take the first corner(1.60) or even at least 5 corners in the first half(1.70) (7) which would be solid plays for this matchup. Our guys are gonna come out swinging from the jump, and Iceland is just going to park the bus in a total panic. 🤷

Personally, I’d grab that 5 corner option since I’m expecting our boys to run up a little scoring streak early on to cover it, but honestly, I’m staying far away from this whole game today.

crimsonpuma23 said:It’s gone now, obviously because those odds didn't suit them. Today, maybe you'd see a 1.20 or 1.30 coefficient. But I guess options like Team USA gets the first corner(1.60) or at least 5 corners in the first half(1.70) would be solid bets for this game. The Americans will probably charge from the whistle, and Iceland will just sit back in a panic. 🤷

I'd personally take that 5 corner option. I'm expecting some sort of early run from our guys that should cover it, though honestly, I'm staying away from this match entirely today.

Since we're talking corners, maybe this is a decent play (I'm playing it safe here, even with lower odds): Team USA gets more corners, coeff. 1.3 (9-1)

The US is going to be constantly attacking, basically living in their half of the field. It's almost impossible for Iceland to walk away with more corners in a setup like that...

Casey Campbell said:Since we're talking corner kicks, maybe this is a decent little play—and look, I'm a total sucker for a "sure thing," even if the odds are low: Team USA to take more corners, at 1.3

You could give it a shot, but I’ve got some live intel for you right now. 😁 It just started pouring rain here in Chicago, and it’s that miserable, steady kind of rain that doesn't quit. That means the stadium isn't going to be packed 🙂, and if the pitch gets totally waterlogged, it’s gonna favor the Icelanders—you know, the squad playing pure defense—so honestly, with a weird matchup like this, I wouldn't bet a single dime on anything. 😉 Especially not on some supposed "guaranteed" lock.

A little bit of lighthearted trolling for those playing minor roles:

France 1 at 1.45 (3-0)+Ribery scoring at +260 odds... now that's an interesting little gamble.+A penalty at 3.20 odds... honestly, I don't know. It’s one of those plays that looks tempting on paper—you see the stats, you see the momentum—but then you start thinking about how unpredictable these things actually get. You can almost hear the commentator's voice building up the tension, only for the ref to wave it off or the keeper to pull off some miracle save. It’s a bit of a gamble, isn't it? A decent little price if you're feeling bold, but man, the math doesn't always love the gut feeling.(totaling about 16.7) (+Red card at the 3:20 mark... honestly, what a mess.(Totaling $53.45)

We’re all just sitting here waiting for some refereeing blunder to hand the win to the French—not that it actually *has* to happen, mind you, but you know how these things go. Since Ribery is their standout player and the guy they trust at the spot for penalties, it’s pretty much common sense to play the game according to his rhythm, especially since we're all half-expecting a penalty to be called anyway. 🤷
You can go solo if you want, or mix and match things up—whatever floats your boat. 🤷

I’m honestly surprised that ESPN is letting them combine all this—it feels like they're opening up way more doors than usual. If anyone else has some creative ideas floating around—and I don't mean it has to be specifically for this game—drop them below. I'm curious to see where your heads are at.

The US pulls off a 2-1 win at 28 odds—and that’s just for the home win. Real madness. (PSK)

I’m expecting a total grind—one of those brutal, high-stakes matches where we come out swinging from the opening whistle. But, knowing how things go, they’ll probably concede a counterattack early on—likely a messy one after a defensive lapse. Then, it’ll be nothing but pure chaos and relentless pressure for about sixty-five minutes until Mandžukić finally hammers home a header—right after we finally nail a decent cross (after a dozen attempts that either flew wide or ended up straight in the keeper's hands). After that, the real drama kicks in. We'll be throwing everything at them, and the opposition will be defending like they're facing the 2004 Greek national team or Mourinho’s Inter against Barcelona in the 2010 Champions League semis. Finally, in the 95th minute, Modrić will somehow poke a header in after getting deflected by a shot from Rakitić. ☕

Modrić scores a header in the 75th minute. (HL)

Everything's already laid out right above—pretty much said it all up there. 🤷
Honestly, there isn't even any real need for an analysis here. It’s pretty self-explanatory—not that I'm trying to be dismissive, but some things just speak for themselves without all the extra noise.

Sweden vs. Portugal (hattrick during the match) @ 30 (Parlay) — Kristina bagged three goals, just business as usual for her.☕)

I’m really looking forward to seeing a masterclass from Ibra—but hey, if he doesn't show up, we've still got CR7 to bail us out if Portugal gets an early lead. 🤷

Word is Algeria is cruising past Burkina Faso today because they’ve finally got some key starters back in the lineup—plus, they actually looked better than the final score suggested in their first match, even if they ended up dropping it 3-2. Basically, they just need to find the back of the net once and keep a clean sheet. I'm trying to find a decent spot to bet on them advancing—surely there’s somewhere out there taking action on this?

Algeria to advance @ 1.55

Even if they did, I highly doubt the odds would be any better than just betting on a straight win.
I mean, what’s actually wrong with a standard one-unit play? 🤷

Eric Fox7 said:Even if they did offer it, I highly doubt the odds would be any better than just betting on a straight win.
What’s even wrong with a standard single bet? 🤷

Actually, you've got a point there—I was totally thinking of something else entirely, but whatever... I'll just put it down as a single.