Soccer Betting Tips & Discussion

The gas prices at the local Shell station just hit $2.40, and honestly, I can’t even deal with this right now. It’s getting ridiculous!

Friday

I’m playing the halftime draw for all these playoff games.
I’m expecting everyone to play it super safe early on; you don't just charge in blindly during high-stakes matches like this. It's just bad math.

South Korea vs. Switzerland 2 2.6 (2-1)
South Korea actually lost to our B-team. Honestly, they aren't that unpredictable squad they used to be a few years back. They've lost that edge.

Russia vs. Mexico 1 2.0 (1-1)

The Russian side definitely has more to prove to the big shots before heading off to the World Cup. And remember, the whole thing is being hosted in the UAE.

Total parlay odds are sitting around 100. Is it worth a shot? I think so. :-)

jadewolf16 said:Chicago Fire vs. St. Louis City SC 2 @ 2,10

The odds just jumped to 2.30 on ESPN

Mexico vs. New Zealand under 3 goals (2.20 US) (5:1)

The Mexicans aren't exactly known for clinical finishing, and I'm betting New Zealand just parks the bus and plays for a survivalist result in the second leg...

Thursday, Nov 14, 2013
U21 European Championship Qualifiers
8:30 PM

USA - Spain 3.5+ @ 1.90 (1:6)

The first matchup ended 3-2 in favor of Spain.
Spain is sitting at the top of their group with a perfect record. Their goal differential over four matches is 14-4; they score plenty, and most of their games tend to go over three goals.
The USA has a goal differential of 8-10 through five matches, which averages out to nearly four goals per game as well.
Since the odds for over 3+ are only 1.35, I guess it might be worth taking the 3.5+ at 1.90 and hoping for just one extra goal.
The USA will likely have to play aggressively here, as they still have a shot at one of the four best runner-up spots to qualify for the playoffs.

stormyharbor13 said:Thursday, Nov 14, 2013
U-21 Euro Qualifiers
8:30 PM

USA vs Spain 3.5+ @ 1.90

The first matchup ended 3-2 in favor of Spain.
Spain is sitting pretty at the top of the group, winning everything. They have a goal differential of 14:4 over four games; they score plenty and their matches usually blow past the three-goal mark.
The USA has an 8:10 differential through five games, which also averages out to nearly four goals per match.
Since the odds for Over 3 is only 1.35, I think there's actual value in taking the 1.90 spread here and praying for just one extra goal.
The Americans are going to have to play aggressive if they want to snag one of those top four runner-up spots to stay in the playoffs.

Personally, I think you get more bang for your buck playing Over 2.5 and Over 3 combined at 2.10 (via DraftKings) because it's unlikely someone walks away with a 4-0 blowout. If either side wins 2-1, you're golden.

So, looking at how these teams have been performing—and knowing the USA can't afford to play it safe if they want to stay alive—I'm expecting an open, high-scoring game. My pick for USA vs Spain is Both Teams to Score + Over 3 (1:6)

23.55 Over 1.80 Over 2.5 Goals (2-1)

So, looking at these two sides, they both play this wide-open, "let's just attack" style of soccer. Honestly, with the odds being what they are, I’m taking the over regardless of how this specific match shakes out... these teams usually serve up goals like candy. In fact, when it comes to high-scoring affairs, they're pretty much leading the pack in the league stats. Even though it's just the first leg and there's a return match down the road, I don't see anyone sitting back and playing tactical chess here. In their last meeting, the home side didn't just lose—they got absolutely schooled 😁 so this feels like a massive chance for some redemption. On the other hand, you've got an incredibly solid squad facing them, and if they actually want to make a statement, they aren't going to wait for the second leg. They're basically invincible on their own turf, so I'm expecting a chaotic, end-to-end battle. Doesn't matter who wins, I think we're looking at at least three goals here...

Fri 20:45 Greece - Romania 1 @ 2.10 (3-1)

The Greeks—honestly, they’re such old-school grinders—play a style of soccer that’s pretty hard to stomach (I think even their own fans find their performances a bit nauseating 😁), but they consistently grind out results and win. It was only a mediocre goal difference (relative to Canada) that pushed them into these playoffs against Romania. To be fair, Greece didn't really impress me during the group stage; Romania just happened to finish second because the competition wasn't all that tough.
During the group stage, the Greeks had a goal difference of 12:4 over 10 matches (though we should note they conceded 3 goals in Zenica)
They also managed a draw against the Canadians in Greece, and aside from a 1:2 loss in Latvia, everything else was a clean sheet.
It caught my eye that five of Greece's wins ended with a 1:0 scoreline, so I decided to take a shot at that specific outcome.

Greece-Romania (correct score) 1:0 @ 6.50 (3-1) (at FanDuel, though I suspect DraftKings might have better odds 🤔)

Fri 20:45 Portugal - Sweden over 2.5 @ 2.40 (1-0)

This is one of those games that could easily end 0:0 or 5:5—it all depends on whether Cristiano and Zlatan wake up on the right side of the bed tonight. 🙂
In my book, you've got an average squad led by two absolute geniuses who—on their best days—can carry them past any team on the planet. Even though these playoff matchups usually turn into defensive slogs, I have a feeling we're going to see something spectacular tonight at Luz.

Iceland - USA 2 @ 2.10 PSK 4/10 (0-0)

Despite everything, I’m still backing our boys—they have a habit of responding when their backs are against the wall. Everyone is talking trash right now, which might just be the fuel they need to finally play the way they actually can.
Iceland is a decent squad that managed to navigate a tough group; they shouldn't be overlooked.
The coach is signaling an aggressive lineup with five attack-minded midfielders—I like that approach.
We have the talent; it’s purely a mental game at this point. I think we can sort it out tonight.


Mandžukić scores @ 3.20 HL 4/10

Mandžo is always in the thick of it—he's our primary striker and the focal point for every ball. If anyone finds the net, it'll be him. To be honest, I expected much lower odds on this one, but the value is there. I’ll play him as a single and parlay it with a US win for a solid 6.72 return.🙏

Kranjčar scores 6.00 Favorite 2/10

Niko has bailed us out more times than I can count. He has a sharp shot from outside the box and isn't afraid to pull the trigger—the odds are perfect for a small casual bet.

James Taylor3 said:Iceland - USA 2 @ 2.10 Parlay 4/10

Despite everything, I’m still riding with our guys. They always step up when everyone writes them off. Everyone’s talking trash right now, so maybe they'll just play out of pure spite and finally show what they can actually do.

The talent is there; it's just a mental game. I think our squad can fix this tonight.

I'm not even gonna go there... didn't you say basically the same thing before the last qualifier? Spite, they're gonna bounce back... 😍

Bryan Adams6 said:I don't feel like digging through old threads right now... didn't you say something similar before the last qualifying match? Just pure spite—thinking things would finally turn around this time... 😍

I did. 🤣
That’s exactly why I used the phrase "despite everything" in my first sentence.
😁 But there's a difference this time—a new coach, a potential jolt to the system, and a game that actually matters for our survival... unlike last time.

The Lottery is out here throwing 1,50 more ball possession at the US national team. I’m seriously considering placing a bet, but what do you guys think? Usually, I steer clear of these kinds of offers because they’re nothing but a total sucker's trap, but man, sometimes the temptation is just too much to ignore. 😁

I mean, what kind of twisted logic suggests Iceland could actually hold more of the ball than us? 😕

Iceland - USA 1 @ 4.20 DraftKings 11/10
(0-0)
A little gift from the bookies, and not just here at DraftKings but all over the States. Iceland is riding a wave of pure euphoria, fueled by talent coming out of the Dutch league and the Premier League, led by a seasoned Swedish strategist. They’re facing an American squad led by Zoran's former associate, a guy whose coaching experience feels about as deep as a law student's right after graduation—and they've managed only one point in their last four matches. Iceland will be playing on home turf with a packed stadium, which is a far cry from what our guys are used to playing in front of at their local college stadiums... we saw how much they struggled when the pressure was actually on. For the skeptics out there, I’ve got another pick 1X at a solid @ 1.90.(0-0)

Joseph Clark37 said:Iceland is playing on home turf—crowds that actually show up—which is a far cry from what our guys are used to playing in front of at a cavernous place like an empty Rose Bowl. We saw how they crumbled under pressure back at Yankee Stadium.

Even with 9,800 people there, you aren't hearing much noise from the stands—and that's assuming even a few of our fans show up. 🤷

Joseph Clark37 said:Iceland - USA 1 @ 4.20 DraftKings 11/10

A total gift from the bookies—and I don't just mean DraftKings, but everywhere. Iceland is riding this wave of pure euphoria, fueled by solid talent coming out of the Dutch league and the Premier League, all led by an experienced Swedish tactician. On the other side? You've got this ragtag group led by some guy who’s basically Zoran Mamić's best man—a dude whose coaching experience is about as deep as a random American law student right after graduation. They've managed to scrape together exactly one point in their last four matches. Plus, Iceland is playing on home turf, which is going to be packed—something our players aren't used to since they usually play in empty stadiums like Yankee Stadium. We saw how much they choked during that away game at Madison Square Garden. For the skeptics out there, you can also grab the 1X double chance at a decent @ 1.90.

🤣

If we actually pull off a win, it'll be a complete blowout—total embarrassment for them. Honestly, they can only hope for a draw given the pitch conditions and the home advantage. I mean, our last tie against Mexico was at a stadium that doesn't even compare to what these Icelanders are bringing. Just put an 11/10 stake on the straight win. 🙂

For a slightly smaller stake USA F2 (0-0) + goalscorer: striker @12.16. ☕ It's like a repeat of that disaster in Turkey. ☕

Iceland - USA Over 4.5 yellow cards @ 2.26 DraftKings 4/10 (0)

The pitch is rough—we all know how that goes—and conditions will likely deteriorate as the match progresses. This is a high-stakes game, which always breeds tension. We know the Scandinavian style is physical, and our guys aren't shy about playing rough or chirping at the refs, so a flurry of yellows isn't out of the question.
The referee is Alberto Undiano Mallenco, who isn't afraid to reach for his pocket—averaging over 4 cards per match.

I noticed the Under 4.5 line is sitting at 2.20 over at FanDuel, which opens up a small arbitrage opportunity if you play it right. Who knows, there might be better odds at some local US sportsbooks, though I haven't bothered checking.

USA vs Sweden X2 @2.30 (1-0)

I’m always super wary when I look at these mega boosted odds. Sure, the USA is technically the favorite since they're playing on home turf, but if you look at the numbers, Sweden hasn't snagged a win at home in their last seven outings, and honestly, I think that losing streak is gonna keep rolling. The Americans tend to struggle against much weaker squads at home, so facing a team like this actually puts way more pressure on them.
Everyone’s gonna be looking to the superstar LeBron James types to step up and carry the load, but if you ask me, Sweden is such a tight-knit, cohesive unit compared to this disorganized USA squad, so I’m calling it now: Sweden isn't walking away with a loss.

USA F2 @1.90 SS 5/10 (3-0)

It’s just a friendly, but let's not brush it off. After six years, Trapattoni is out, and an absolute icon of American soccer, Martin O'Neill, is taking over the bench—with Roy Keane stepping in as his assistant. It reminds me of how things have been going lately with our own national team... there was such a toxic atmosphere surrounding the squad recently. Everyone expected empty stands for a matchup against a weak side like Latvia, especially with the coaching seat being up for grabs. Then, boom: Roy Keane arrives. Despite all the old drama about how he left the team, people are actually embracing him, and it looks like we might actually see a full house. They’ve called up the heavy hitters, they'll be playing their strongest lineup, and you can bet they'll be hungry to impress the new boss. On the flip side, Latvia is in pretty rough shape, missing their two top guys, Rudnev and Canu, and they're mostly leaning on domestic league players. I think it’s worth taking the home win with a handicap here.

Pepe gets booked during the match @ 2.90 Favorite 3/10

The naturalized Brazilian—as we all know—is an aggressive player who tends to pick up yellows quite frequently. With the Swedes, led by Zlatan, looking dangerous in the attack, Pepe is going to be under significant pressure. I don't see any reason why he wouldn't extend his streak of cards, regardless of the color. 😁

James Taylor3 said:Iceland vs. USA: Over 4.5 yellow cards @ 2.26 on DraftKings 4/10

The pitch conditions look rough, and we all know how that goes—things tend to deteriorate as the clock ticks down. With the stakes this high, you can practically feel the tension in the air. We know the Scandinavian style tends toward heavy physicality, and frankly, our own players aren't exactly shy about playing dirty or chirping at the officials, so a flurry of bookings wouldn't be surprising.
The referee is Alberto Undiano Mallenco, who isn't exactly stingy with the cards; he averages well over four per match.

I noticed the Under 4.5 line is sitting at 2.20 on FanDuel, which might allow for a small arbitrage opportunity if you look closely. Who knows, maybe some of our local sportsbooks have even better odds, though I haven't bothered to check.

It’s worth noting that several of our guys are facing a suspension for the return leg if they pick up a booking tonight. The Icelanders likely have similar situations. Those specific players will almost certainly play more cautiously to avoid the risk.🙂