Soccer Betting Tips & Discussion

World Cup Qualifiers - Monday (Sept 5) - 8:45 PM
USA vs. Turkey
Pick: 1st substitution - Turkey @ 1.85 (Sportsbook)
Confidence: 5/10

The USA kicks off World Cup qualifying tonight. Coach Gregg Berhalter is still at the helm, and based on what I saw during the last tournament, I’m betting Turkey makes the first sub of the match. During the Euros, Fatih Terim was pulling subs at halftime in two different games, then waited until the 61st minute against the Czechs. Over the last five qualifiers, Terim hasn't waited past the 65th minute, and he's even pulled them early at the half. Since they've swapped out a good chunk of their roster and we're seeing a "new" Turkish squad tonight at the stadium, I think an early move is more likely. Plus, when the USA is the favorite, the underdog usually reacts faster with tactical changes. Not much else to say about us—Berhalter tended to wait a long time to make moves during the Euros, and I expect him to stick to that if things go according to plan.

+3.4

MLS Matchday 1. 3:00 PM
LAFC(h1:0)-Inter Miami - x2 @ 6.00

There’s a total screw-up in the sportsbook—huge mistake here. With a 1:0 handicap, an X2 bet is basically the same thing as just betting on a draw or an away win, but they’ve flipped the handicap to 0:1 instead of keeping it at 1:0. It's completely backwards. Usually, you'd see Inter Miami at 2.70, but because of this blunder, we can grab them at 6.00—which is the exact same value as the double chance. There is massive value sitting right here if you aren't blind.

7/10

0

This isn't just about finding value—it's a straight-up surebet. Brilliant move.

Edit: Managed to get the bet placed; I assume they won't be able to void it now.

They already bailed

They held onto them for way longer than I thought—honestly, such a huge waste of time that I didn't catch this sooner.

Tonight, 8:45 PM Champions League
Tottenham vs. Monaco
Pick: DNB 2 (1-2)
Odds: 4.00 @ DraftKings
Stake: 1/10

Is there value here? I believe there is. Honestly, am I a fan of the French side? Not particularly. In fact, isn't that precisely why my stake is kept at this level? Besides, I have mitigated my risk by opting for the Draw No Bet. Had I not been feeling a bit cautious, would I have gone for a straight away win? Perhaps. But even with the insurance of the DNB, these odds are simply too compelling to ignore.

Does Tottenham possess a talented roster? Certainly. Have they improved since last season? They have. However, does that make them such overwhelming favorites against a Monaco squad currently playing with immense confidence? I think not. One needs only to look at their recent form to see the truth. Didn't they recently dismantle PSG with a 3-1 victory? And following that, didn't they utterly crush Lille 4-1? That marks five consecutive wins for them.

Now, consider that very same PSG team. Didn't they dominate the pitch against Arsenal just yesterday? While Arsenal managed to scrape a draw through sheer luck and missed opportunities, wouldn't I say the Parisians actually deserved to walk away with a handicap win?

Of course, one shouldn't compare these matches directly. My intention is merely to illustrate my perspective: is Monaco being underestimated in this scenario? I suspect they are. While I respect how formidable the English teams can be on their home turf, can I truly look at these odds without seeing an opportunity? I cannot.

Regarding the lineups—and we must rely on the media reports here—it appears the home side will be missing their starting left back, Rose (3u/1g). As for the visitors, is their keeper Subašić (3u) fit to play? His status is uncertain, and should he be out, the veteran De Sanctis will step in. Furthermore, will they be without their star striker Mbappé (1u, 17 years old) and defender Mendy (3u)? There is also the possibility of seeing Falcao (1u) return to the lineup.

And so, that is my assessment. 🙂

+3

Lyon vs. LAFC
1@1.67 7/10 Pinnacle/Bet365 (3-0)

Am I losing my mind or is everyone else? Some pundit says the French are in total freefall🤔, and some local analyst claims this Lyon squad is weaker than the one that crushed them last time. The media is all hype and optimism about this match... personally, I don't see the logic.

Sure, Lyon dropped their last two MLS matches (a 4-2 loss away at Dallas and a 1-3 home loss to Atlanta) and they’re missing their top scorer, Lacazette, who went down injured against Atlanta this weekend. BUT...
Lyon is facing LAFC—a club that acts more like a hedge fund than a soccer team. They offloaded three of their most vital players this summer, they're led by a coach who isn't exactly known for building solid defenses, and they just lost a home league game 0-1 to San Jose.

Besides Lacazette, Lyon is missing Grenier, Jallet, Fekir, and Kalulu due to injuries, plus Valbuena and Fofana are major question marks.
LAFC has their own issues too; Antolic, Matel, Hodzic, Leskovic, and Goncalo are all out.
Projected lineups:
Lyon: Lopes, N'Koulou, Yanga-Mbiwa, Morel, Rafael, Ferri, Gonalons, Darder, Rybus, Tolisso, Cornet
LAFC: Šemper - Stojanović, Schildenfeld, Benković, Pivarić - Machado, Jonas - Soudani, Pavičić, Ćorić - Fernandes

LAFC wasn't even impressive during the qualifiers, and Lyon is going to be a much tougher test. Honestly, LAFC might actually be the perfect punching bag for Lyon to shake off those two losses and build some confidence before their big matchup against PSG. There's a massive quality gap here, and I'm hoping the scoreboard reflects that.
Also, worth a shot: Lyon + Over 2.5 @ 2.625 4/10 Marathon

Btw, @driftingotter47 why isn't this included in the August table? 🕺

+11.19

8:45 PM Champions League
Bayer Leverkusen vs. CSKA Moscow
Total yellow cards - over 3.5 (2)
@1.70 DraftKings
5/10

The primary reason this particular matchup caught my eye is the officiating... the Italian ref, Orsato, is quite prolific when it comes to handing out cards. http://int.soccerway.com/referees/da...59480/matches/
A quick glance at his statistical history tells the whole story. There’s actually a sportsbook out there that counts a red card as two yellows, and according to their data, he has crossed this 3.5 threshold far more often than what we see reflected in our local US books. It doesn't matter if it’s a high-stakes Champions League match or some minor European tournament; he isn't afraid to reach for his pocket. Even Leverkusen, playing against some total nobody in the domestic cup, managed to rack up two yellows. In league play, they've seen games with three and two. CSKA isn't immune to the card either—take their intense clash against Zenit, which saw three yellows. This group is incredibly tight; along with these two sides, you've got Monaco and Tottenham in the mix. I suspect every single match in this group will be a goldmine for card bettors. Honestly, seeing four cards in a game like this, given the man in the middle, feels like a very safe bet...

-5

8:45 PM Champions League
Juventus vs. Sevilla
Player scores + UT - Mandžukić (scores + UT) 1+ / No goal (0-0 + no goal)
@2.05 SS
5/10

First off, wish me luck, because let's be honest—my analysis didn't exactly go according to plan last year.

Juventus and Sevilla are basically getting a rematch of last year's group stage matchup. Back then, Juve was the heavy favorite at home, and honestly, I still see them as the favorites here too. Even though their midfield took a hit after selling Pogba, bringing in Higuain was a massive win—he’s already established himself as their main striker. Pjanić and Cuadrado should step up nicely to fill the void left by Pogba, and you can always count on those Italian squads to have one of the toughest defenses in the game. They’ve already notched three wins in the league, so they'll definitely be hunting for a victory in this opening match. As for my side bet, I’m leaning towards Mandžukić not finding the back of the net. He’ll likely come off the bench, and given his current slump, the odds feel higher that he stays scoreless. I actually had him and Juve paired up in their last outing, too. Sevilla is such an unpredictable bunch, but looking at the talent they've offloaded this season versus what they've brought in, they haven't really replaced that quality. They looked pretty shaky in the last round when they barely scraped a draw against Las Palmas.
Probably not available: Sevilla FC Timothée Kolodziejczak (indirect card suspension), Luciano Vietto (Back Injury), Benoît Trémoulinas (Meniscus tear), David Soria (Fractured Finger), Michael Krohn-Dehli (Fractured Kneecap). For Juventus, Marchisio is out among the bigger names.

0

7:00 PM EST
LAFC - Portland Timbers, Portland scores a goal at 1.65 odds (SS) (4-0)
7/10

Head-to-head stats don't exactly scream this outcome—Portland hasn't found the back of the net against LAFC in their last three meetings, but let's be real, the last one was way back in April, so that's ancient history now. My logic here is mostly riding on LAFC’s absolutely atrocious defense. They have this uncanny ability to hand out gifts, and I'm betting they'll gift the Portland strikers two or three golden opportunities. It all comes down to whether they actually have the killer instinct to finish. Every time LAFC takes the pitch, their defensive positioning is just... well, it's a disaster. And while Portland isn't exactly a powerhouse, I know teams even worse than them can walk into a stadium like SoFi and walk away with a couple of goals. Both sides are scoring and conceding at a decent clip—LAFC is sitting at 13:10, Portland at 10:11. You could take "Both Teams to Score" at 1.95, which is fine, but I'm feeling this specific play more.

Good luck 😉

-7

20:45 Espanyol vs Real Madrid
Both teams to score & Over 2.5 goals @ 2.05 5/10 Bet365 (0-2)

Espanyol started this season with big ambitions, but they haven't lived up to the hype yet. Zero wins in three games—just two measly points on the board. They had that wild game in Seville and lost 6-4, then limped home with draws against Malaga (2-2) and in San Francisco (1-1).
They’ll be missing midfielder Javi Fuego for this one, who’s played every minute so far.

Real Madrid has been steamrolling La Liga opponents. They dropped a couple close ones in Madrid against Celta (2-1) and Osasuna (5-2), but they cruised through San Francisco with a 3-0 win. Now they’re heading to Barcelona right after a brutal Champions League match where they were trailing Sporting until Ronaldo bailed them out in the 89th minute, followed by Morata scoring in the literal final seconds.
Navas and Coentrao are out today, and there’s a huge question mark over Ronaldo being sick and Bale being sidelined with an injury. Both stayed back in Madrid.

Likely lineups:
Espanyol: Di. Lopez, V. Sanchez, O. Duarte, D. Reyes, J. Lopez, Piatti, Roca, Da. Lopez, H. Perez, Leo Baptistao, Moreno
Real Madrid: Casilla, Carvajal, S. Ramos, Varane, Marcelo, Asensio, Casemiro, Kroos, L. Vazquez, Benzema, Morata

Espanyol has been a total pushover for Real lately. Real took all four matchups over the last two seasons. Back in the 14/15 season, it was 3-0 in Madrid and 4-1 in Barcelona, and last season they absolutely demolished them with back-to-back 6-0 wins.
Espanyol actually looks decent and aggressive moving forward, so I’m thinking tonight might play out differently. Expect goals.
You could also take the over 2.5 @ 1.64 5/10 Pinnacle

-10

09.20.2016. 15:30 Cleveland - Orlando 1 @ 3.90 HL 4/10 (1-1)

A little something from my side. 🙂

The Orlando squad traveled to Cleveland for this cup matchup significantly shorthanded.
Specifically, six starters stayed behind in Florida: "Robertino Alviž, Miro Slavica, Simonas Stankevičius, Albi Dosti, Grgo Živković, and Luka Fuštin all opted out of the trip north."

I’ve watched Orlando a few times this season—they're struggling to find any rhythm and scoring is a real issue. Dosti is their primary playmaker; everything flows through him, and most of the rest of the roster consists of attackers anyway.
It’s clear the cup isn't a priority for Orlando—they're rolling out a secondary lineup—whereas a third-division side like Cleveland will be hungry for the upset. That’s just how these matchups work.
The odds look great, but they're already sliding. Over at some international sportsbooks, the average has dropped to 2.85, and we're starting to see that dip locally too.

-4

MLS 2016/17.
LA Galaxy to take the title, 1.70 (SS)
10/10

Seattle had a much smoother start to the season, but honestly, you’d expect that given how early they got knocked out of the Champions League. LA Galaxy managed to qualify for the big stage, which is definitely draining their energy right now, but once that European stretch is over, I’m betting they go right back to their old habit of steamrolling the MLS. Even with them looking a bit sluggish, they're only sitting one point ahead of Seattle—and Seattle still has a game in hand against a bottom-feeder like San Jose, though those kinds of trap games are exactly what usually trips teams up. Last year, the Seattle crew absolutely owned the big matchups (Galaxy vs. Sounders vs. Portland), picking up 17 points while the Galaxy only scraped together 10. But then, in the final stretch of the season, they completely choked—dropping points at home to San Jose and losing on the road to teams like Columbus and Houston. Look, the Galaxy have the cash, the infrastructure, the experience, and most importantly, they have that heavy-hitting management in their corner. There’s just too much money on the line for the big bosses to let anyone else mess around with the top spot in this league. As for Portland? Don't even bother mentioning them as title contenders; seeing them at +1500 odds is frankly ridiculous.

Where exactly am I supposed to place bets in the SS app?

Sean Kelly10 said:Where exactly am I supposed to find the betting options for this on SS?

Sports -> All -> Soccer -> USA Major League -> Match Winner

English Premier League, 09/24, 16:00
Bournemouth vs Everton
2 2.10 SS (1-0)
Confidence: 4/10

Honestly, I couldn't believe my eyes when I saw how high the odds were on Everton. They’re looking absolutely solid right now.
They've pulled off four straight league wins, picking them off one by one—West Bromwich Albion, Stoke, Sunderland, and Middlesbrough. Sure, they dropped their last one against Norwich, but that was in the League Cup, which I guess Koeman probably sacrificed just to focus on the league grind.
Romelu Lukaku missed the last one, so he should be back in the lineup today. And man, we've all seen what Lukaku looks like under Koeman; he bagged 4 goals in 2 games and even tossed out an assist.
Bournemouth, on the flip side, have had a pretty pathetic start to the season. They’ve only managed one win (against WBA) and a draw (against Crystal Palace), with everything else being losses (to City, Manchester United, and WH). They’ve only scored three goals in five matches while coughing up nine. Those three little goals basically prove that their main man, Calum Wilson, still hasn't found his rhythm after that nasty injury last season.

-4

cosmicheron21 said:Sports -> All -> Soccer -> US Major League -> Winner

Thanks. FanDuel has it at @1.5, but I guess you can parlay it with other stuff.

Admira (Am) - St. Polten (Am) 2 @5 (2-3) Tempobet or @4.6 @ Favbet if you aren't betting abroad.
Stake 5/10

It's a top-of-the-table derby in the US regional league East, featuring the reserve squads of two major US pro teams. Admira is sitting dead last with only 2 points and still hasn't found a win. They’re running their usual lineup today. SKN managed a win against 13th-place Schwechat, but let's be honest, they aren't exactly playing great football either. The main reason I'm looking at this is that three players from the senior squad are in the starting XI today, with another three waiting on the bench. Word is they won't all play at once. Neither side is bottom-tier quality; I expect both will avoid relegation this season. Because of that, I think the visitors, bolstered by those 6 extra players, could easily snatch a win. At odds of 5, it's worth a shot. 👍
By the way, bet365 already dropped the odds from 5 down to 4.50, so that's actually a better value than what we have here.

edit: So, Luma, Ambichl (the coach's son, but he can actually play), and Muhamedbegović are all in the starting XI. They also brought back goalkeeper Kura, along with forwards Adamec and Vučenović. Božićević (our local kid, huge talent) is on the bench. Basically, a really strong lineup today, so I'm bumping up the stake slightly. 👍

+20

Champions League
20:45 Borussia Mönchengladbach AH+1.5 - FC Barcelona (1-2)
Tip: 2 @2,44 Pinnacle
Stake: 9/10

Lineups for tonight are out. Not much to say other than Barca is missing Lionel Messi, so Paco is stepping up to fill the void. The home side is down three players, though it shouldn't matter much here. This is Paco's chance to prove himself. Honestly, Neymar plays better without Messi on the pitch anyway. Sergio Busquets is also starting, which is huge for Barca; he’s the engine room, connecting everything perfectly.
If they score early, the handicap should hit easily—maybe even a two-goal spread if they're feeling it. at 4.40 on Tempobet Stake: 4/10
Manchester City cruised through last round with four goals, and I expect something similar from Barca, even without Messi.

-13

Hey everyone, it's been a minute! 🙂

Saint-Étienne vs RSC Anderlecht X2 @ 1.70 (1-1)

The Home team's defense is basically a sieve right now. Their starting keeper is suspended and their top scorer, Beric, is out too. They're absolutely gutted.
On the flip side, the visitors get Youri Tielemans back from injury, and he's huge for them.
Given how crippled the home side is, I don't see the visitors dropping points here.

Manchester United vs Zorya Luhansk 1 @ 1.15 (1-0)

Not much to say here, especially after that embarrassing loss in the first round.

Shakhtar Donetsk vs SC Braga 1 @ 1.50 (2-0)

Same deal here... Braga has always been an easy target for Shakhtar, so I expect that trend to keep going today.

FC Astana vs Young Boys 1x @ 1.40 (0-0)

Astana is a beast at home—they proved that over the last two years in European play. Meanwhile, YB is struggling big time when they travel.
This is YB's fourth away game in just eleven days, and they had to fly all the way across the country for this one. 2.8 miles Their manager even admitted he'd take any point he can get. Plus, they'll be missing Hoarau, who is a massive part of their core.

Gabala FK vs Mainz 05 1x @ 1.80 (2-3)

Are you kidding me? 1.85 on Mainz playing away?
Gabala has absolutely crushed it in the qualifiers, winning all four matches and not conceding a single goal at home.
Honestly, I wouldn't be shocked if Gabala pulled off the win, but I'm playing it safe with 1x just in case.

@6.90 3/10

-3