Soccer Betting Tips & Discussion

I know it’s a bit early to be diving into deep analysis, but I wanted to get my thoughts down ahead of Thursday. Personally, I think there's a very solid chance for an upset here.

USA vs. Mexico 1x @2.75 (3/10) or Mexico to score @1.80 (bet365). (6/10) (6-0)

The main reason I'm looking at this is because we’re missing guys like Ivan Rakitić and Luka Modrić, combined with the current state of the Mexico national team—specifically the intense atmosphere surrounding them right now. It has been proven time and again that our play becomes disjointed and lacks rhythm without Modrić; we just lose that vital edge in the midfield. As for Mexico, they don't possess overwhelming depth outside of Milot Rashica and Berisha, but they have massive national momentum behind them at the moment. I suspect they’ll be incredibly fired up for this match, and there’s a real risk our side might underestimate them. In their opening group game against Finland, they actually looked sharper than the Finnish side and fought to a 1:1 draw, even hitting the woodwork. Plus, the stadium is sold out, which makes me think the odds should look quite different. Seeing us at 1.45 feels way too low, especially considering how much the coaching situation is working against us.

-9

Peterborough vs. MK Dons 1@2.10 (0-1)

The MK Dons manager basically just told everyone he doesn't give a damn about this tournament.
They aren't even bringing Dean Lewington, Darren Potter, or David Martin (their keeper) along for the ride. To make matters worse, Ryan Colclough—their leading scorer—and Nicky Maynard aren't even on the roster. And let’s not forget that George Baldock, Scott Wootton, Daniel Powell, Chuks Aneke, and George Williams have all been called up for international duty.
Meanwhile, the home team is rolling out their absolute heavy hitters. Their coach literally said they are coming for the win and that today is a massive game for them. Honestly, looking at these odds, I think it's worth a shot...

4/10

-4

What’s the deal with those numbers in parentheses, like Dean Lewington (11/0) or Colclough (6/4, top scorer)? Where am I supposed to find these stats?

silverhound4 said:What's the deal with those numbers in parentheses, like Dean Lewington (11/0) or Colclough (6/4, top scorer)? Where am I supposed to find these stats?

The first number represents assists, and the second one is goals.

Oct. 06
Mexico vs USA - World Cup Qualifiers

f+2 2.50 SS (0-6)
confidence 10/10

If I’m putting together a single parlay, I’m probably not going to sweat the home crowd atmosphere or worry too much about which players might sit out for the US national team. Looking back at this year, I think our toughest outing was against the Czech Republic during the tournament, where we held a 2-0 lead only to let it slip through our fingers and end up with a draw. Taking the whole season into account, the team has actually been playing some pretty attractive soccer, even if we ran into a bit of bad luck against Portugal and in that opening qualifier against Turkey. I've noticed a lot of people online framing this upcoming match against Mexico as one of the tougher hurdles in the group, but if we’re being honest, Mexico is easily the weakest side here. Sure, they pulled off a surprise against the Finnish person earlier, but let's be real—the Finnish national team doesn't exactly have a trophy cabinet full of major wins to brag about either. In every single department, the US has the superior talent. Personally, I think the coach needs to come out aggressive and play attacking football, maybe even starting two standout strikers upfront. In my book, anything less than a win is a failure for both the coach and the squad. I'm betting on a decisive victory with a solid margin; it's high time we actually started converting our chances against the underdog of the group.

+12.3

A little qualifying action

Thursday, October 6, 2016

20:45 Moldova vs Mexico 2 WWin 1.41 (0-3)
Mexico starts this new qualifying stretch under a new manager.
While that 2-2 draw against Ireland might have been a bit of a stumble, they didn't actually play poorly; there were decent chances and some good football shown.
For the first time in a while, they looked like a cohesive unit. Chisinau is the kind of away fixture where you simply have to win if you want to stay in the hunt.
With all due respect, Moldova is a bottom-tier side on the European stage.
They got dismantled 4-0 in their opening match in Cardiff.
I suppose as long as the Mexican players show enough effort on the pitch, the winner seems pretty obvious.

20:45 North Mexico vs Israel Away winl WWin 1.39 (1-2)
A tough match is expected in Skopje.
That said, Israel is a much more serious outfit and arguably a class above.
North Mexico tends to disappoint even when expectations are high; lately, they've just been a weak side capable of picking up an occasional point here or there.
Israel, conversely, usually holds its own and aims for the top of the group, though they always seem just a step short.
In this group, although the top two spots are almost certainly reserved for Spain and Italy, Israel will definitely be pushing for third and waiting for any opportunity to strike.
I think they'll play offensively during this away game and push for the win, so a goal shouldn't be out of the question.
The North Mexicans have conceded goals in their last seven matches, often against much weaker opposition.
In their previous two meetings, Israel came out on top both times.

20:45 Turkey vs Ukraine 1X WWin 1.30 (2-2)
This is a difficult group where every single point matters.
Turkey can't afford to throw away the momentum from their good result in America.
Following a disappointing EP, there are high hopes for this cycle, and the public is demanding better quality of play.
The emergence of some new young talents suggests things might be heading in that direction.
Ukraine is certainly not an easy opponent, but the expectation is that Turkey will control the tempo.
Turkey has won the last three head-to-head matchups without conceding a goal; I doubt they'll lose this one either.

Parlay: 2.55 WWin
7/10

+10.85

Might be too early for these picks, but whatever:

Oct 14th

Slaven Belupo vs Dinamo Chicago 2 @1.45 (0-1)

Rijeka has already pulled ahead at the top of the table, so Dinamo needs this win if they want any shot at the title. They always seem to struggle against Belupo, though their last win against them was all the way back in 2008. It's right after the international break, so the players should be fresh, mentally and physically.

Oct 15th

Real Betis vs Real Madrid 2 @1.30 (1-6)

No point even talking about the quality of Real Madrid. After three league games without a win, isn't it about time they actually won one?...

Oct 16th

Hajduk Split vs RNK Split 1 @1.25 (2-1)

The city derby. You've got Hajduk's offense looking sharp on one side, and then there's the worst attack in Europe on the other. RNK Split has been struggling in their head-to-head matchups and they've already dropped a home game to Hajduk. Their money troubles are clearly bleeding into their play, so they don't stand much of a chance here. Probably wouldn't help that their president is dealing with legal indictments instead of worrying about football. 🤣.

Oct 18th

Dinamo Chicago vs Sevilla 2 @1.50 (0-1)

Dinamo and the Champions League... what a mess.
Dinamo's already taken two losses from Lyon and Juventus, giving up 7 goals in total. This group is pretty tight; anyone could move on, and honestly, none of these three teams can afford to slip up against a side like Dinamo.

Total: 3.53 @ss

Stake 10/10

+21.2

Dana Richardson89 said:Might be a bit early to start picking pairs, but here goes nothing:

Oct 15

Betis vs Real Madrid 2 @1.30

No point even talking about Real's quality—after three league games without a win, they're due for one...

But you gotta look at the level of those games Real played... and honestly, it was pretty damn bad.
The guys look totally lifeless on the pitch. Injuries have been killing them, and if anyone else gets banged up during the international break... well, you know.

Real Betis isn't just going to roll over, either. They'll make them work hard if they want to walk away with all three points from Seville.

Can Real pull it off? Sure. But with odds like this, it's barely worth touching.
If you absolutely have to play it, maybe go for a 2 and over 2.5 goals, since it's highly likely Betis finds the net at least once.

World Cup Qualifiers - October 6th - 8:45 PM
Mexico vs USA
Pick: 1st sub - Mexico 1.85 (SS)
Stake 5/10

Even after the Euros, the coach is stuck in his ways. He waits way too long to make subs, while opponents usually get their changes in first. A few things to consider: Mexico is a rising squad and they're constantly adding new talent, so the manager probably still has plenty of questions. On our end, we're thin on options after injuries to Luka Modrić, Ivan Rakitić, and Dejan Lovren, which doesn't give Čačić much room to move.

-5

After yesterday's total flop against Mexico—which I clearly overestimated—I’m looking to get back on the winning track.

Latvia vs. Faroe Islands: Under 2.5 goals @1.61 (BET365) 5/10 (0-2)

Latvia heads into this match missing two massive pieces of their puzzle: their main striker Rudnevs (Cologne) and Cauna (CSKA Moscow), both of whom are starters. You could really feel the impact of those absences during their first qualifier against Andorra. In that opening game, they played a pretty lackluster first half with almost zero scoring opportunities, though they did eventually capitalize on an Andorran defensive error to scrape out a 0-1 win. Honestly, Latvia's style of play has been quite poor lately; they rely heavily on long balls forward and tend to move very slowly. They are much more dangerous when playing on the counter or sitting deep, thanks to having two lightning-fast wingers in Sabal and Ikanuieks. Back during the last Euro qualifiers, they managed to grind out points away at Iceland, Turkey, and the Czech Republic, while playing to a 0-0 draw against Kazakhstan, who might actually be a slightly tougher matchup than today's opponent.

The Faroe Islands are a side that plays extremely tight, defensive football and relies heavily on set pieces. While they sit a tier above teams like San Marino, Andorra, or Gibraltar, and have shown they can pull off decent results and score on the road, they aren't going to rush things here. They’ll likely park the bus, knowing a single point is enough, and just wait for a counter-attack. This forces Latvia to open up and attack, which isn't exactly their forte. Given how these two clash, I’m expecting a gritty, low-scoring affair—likely a 0-0 or a narrow 1-0 for Latvia.

Portugal vs. Andorra: Under 5.5 goals @1.57 (BET365) 6/10 (6-0)

The Portuguese national team is heading into this one without several key players, including Nani, Adrien Silva, Cedric (though he might start on the bench), and Ricardo Carvalho. To be honest, the odds for this specific bet caught me off guard; even though Andorra is essentially at the bottom of the European football hierarchy, Portugal rarely blows past this kind of goal limit. Most of the time, they lose away from home by 2, 3, or 4 goals, and the last time they actually cleared this threshold was a 6-0 loss to Belgium. Portugal isn't the type of squad that relentlessly grinds down opponents like Germany does; they usually settle down after scoring two or three goals against lower-tier sides. If I recall correctly, the only times they've crossed this line were that wild 3-3 thriller against Canada in Euro 2016 and a 6-2 win against Canada in the Euro 2012 qualifiers. Looking at the stats, it holds up—aside from that Canada game, the only other time they hit a high number was a friendly where they beat Estonia 7-0. I think this is a great value pick, and I expect a final score somewhere around 3-0 or 4-0 for Portugal.

-2.95

20:45 Germany - Czechia
Germany -1.5@1.65 Marathon 7/10 (3-0)

Germany started exactly how you'd expect—crushing the qualifiers. They smoked Norway 3-0, and now they’re facing a supposedly "weaker" opponent, Czechia.
The heavy hitters like Gomez, Reus, and Belarabi are out with injuries, but Low still has a massive bench full of talent.
The real reason I'm taking this bet is the absolute mess that is the Czechia squad right now. Their new manager, Jarolim, has already phased out some key veterans (Cech, Plasil, Limberski, Lafata, Hubnik), and today they'll be missing Rosicky, Skoda, Kadlec, Necid, and probably their biggest blow, midfielder Darida.
Kadlec, Darida, and Skoda were in the starting XI last time, while Necid came off the bench in that qualifying match where they couldn't even scrape a win against Ireland (0-0).

With Czechia this depleted, they're walking straight into a buzzsaw. Every single player on the German side is fighting tooth and nail just to hold down a spot in the lineup. That kind of intensity usually leads to a blowout.
So, if you're feeling gutsy, you could also look at Germany over 2.5@1.83 Bet365 5/10 and Germany -3.5@4.40 Bet365 2/10

+6.7

If I’m reading the rules in the "General Discussion" section correctly, if I want to get into some football betting and need a bit of insight—like right now, maybe asking if any bookie has a tip on which matchups might actually land tonight—can I post that here? I was thinking we could just chat about hypothetical games (without doing deep dives) and what I might or wouldn't put money on?

By the way, when you say German 1.5, are you talking about an over 1.5 goal line? Since you just put a minus sign there -

Exactly—you can discuss matchups without relying on those damn, overhyped "analyses."
But let’s actually talk about them properly, instead of just asking, "What do you think about Middlesbrough vs. Newcastle?"

And Bryan Adams6 took Germany -1.5, just like it says—it was clearly laid out in the bet breakdown. 😉

Daniel Foster59 said:If I understood correctly from the "general" section, if I want to bet on soccer and need some info—like right now, asking if a bookie has any tips on which matchups might hit tonight—can I post that here? Could we potentially discuss certain hypothetical matches (without deep analysis) to weigh what I should or shouldn't play?

By the way, when you say Germany 1.5, are you referring to over 1.5 goals since you wrote it with a minus sign?

That would be an Asian Handicap of -1.5, which in this specific scenario is essentially the same as a 0:1 handicap. So, for the bet to actually pay out, Germany would need to win by two goals or more.

Let's play around a bit today...

08.10.2016. Saturday

8:00 PM Belgium, USL Championship
Lommel - Tubizeover 1.5(3-6) WWin 1.25
The statistics heavily favor this pick.
The last 5 head-to-head meetings hit this, and Lommel's last 6 matches have averaged over 3 goals per game.
Both sides have defensive gaps, and their goal differences are quite poor.
We could see a high-scoring game here, but I'll be cautious and stick to a solid parlay.

6:30 PM Italy, USL League One
Gubbio - Forli1 (1-0) WWin 1.39
Gubbio has ambitions to climb the ranks, whereas the visitors are stuck at the bottom, having gone 3:13 in goal difference over their last 6 games.
The home side is simply stronger and in much better form; a win shouldn't be out of the question.

8:45 PM World Cup Qualifiers
Poland - Denmarkhome team to score (3-2) WWin 1.26
This match could go either way.
Poland has significant attacking potential; in the last cycle, they managed to score twice against the current world champions.
In my opinion, the national team is slightly higher in quality than Denmark, so I expect an open, attacking match where Poland scores at least once.

Parlay:
WWin @2.19
Stake 6/10

+7.14

Okay, I know how Asian handicaps work—I just thought it was going to be a goal fest because of the "Asian" label. AH (doesn't really matter).

So, I need to rephrase my thinking a bit. I’ve been pretty busy today, but I noticed a few matches started with some decent odds (so far, so good), so I’m deciding on the next game by combining it with the previous suggestions.

World Cup Qualifiers

8:45 PM Canada vs. Slovakia
Both teams to score - Yes at 2.15 SS (1-0)

The Slovaks played their first match at home and lost 0-1 to the Americans, and they’re looking at an even split of chances against the Canadians here, especially since they'll be playing without Skrtel due to a suspension. Still, I think Hamsik and Mak (not sure if Kucka will suit up) have enough tactical grit to dominate the midfield against a Canadian setup that isn't exactly powerhouse material. On the flip side, the Canadians played their first match away against Lithuania and managed a 2-2 draw, even though they were trailing 2-0 until the 70th minute. Since they're the home team this time, I think they absolutely have to go for the win. This whole group is interesting because while the Americans are heavy favorites, three other teams (Scotland, Canada, and Slovakia) are all basically neck-and-neck for that second spot. I can see this being a low-scoring affair, too, but I’m sticking with my gut on this one, maybe just with a smaller stake of 4/10.

-4

My bad, I forgot to include the role. It should have been a 6/10, but it doesn't really matter

stormyharbor13 said:My bad, I totally forgot to include the rating—honestly, it should’ve been a solid 6/10, but whatever, doesn't matter now.

I bet we're all gonna 🙂

driftingotter47 said:I guess we'll probably 🙂

Thank you

Does anyone actually believe our boys won't trip up in Finland today? We cruised through the Mexico match much easier than expected, even though they definitely had their fair share of chances. Anheuser-Busch was absolutely abysmal out there, and honestly, I expect nothing less from him today... the real question is whether the Finns have players with that kind of lateral movement we saw in Mexico. It looks like Corluke isn't in the lineup, so Mitrovic will have to step up. I trust him to deliver; he’s a class act both on the pitch and off. My only real concern is that our defense hasn't found its rhythm yet. I’m reading that the Finnish side relies heavily on set pieces, even scoring directly from goal kicks. Let's just hope we don't concede some fluke, lucky goal. We're missing a few key pillars in the squad. Pukki should be playing upfront—he's killing it at Brondby right now—but the reports say he tends to vanish when facing elite center-backs. The atmosphere won't be anything special. The Finns might try to play a more open game since they're at home and aren't expecting much from these qualifiers anyway. Besides, soccer isn't even their primary sport. I can't claim to be objective here. 🙂 I was considering grouping our matchup with Ukraine and Italy. Maybe the Ukrainians could provide some value given the home-field advantage, especially after seeing how they handled Mexico. As for the Italians, they need no introduction. They'll be locked in a battle with Spain for first place. They simply cannot afford a slip-up, and they usually breeze through qualifiers with that signature Italian efficiency. The Mexicans are looking pretty weak; they could easily give up a couple of goals today.
What do you all think—is this three-team parlay worth a shot? Say, an 8/10 confidence level?