Soccer Betting Tips & Discussion

I’m jumping back in on this one—honestly, 1.50 feels a bit thin to me. Until we see Lionel Messi and Andrés Iniesta out there on the pitch, I’m not buying any of it.

Everything seems to be leaning in our favor against Mexico. Perhaps we might see a repeat of 🙂
In my estimation, had we possessed both Modrić and Raketić on the pitch, we would have maintained significantly higher possession, effectively forcing Mexico into a much more compact, defensive shape. In this match, our inability to control the ball allowed them too much room to breathe and stretch the field, making it far too easy for them to penetrate our lines. It is possible we will see a similar pattern today. I doubt even Bill Gates could compensate for those missing pieces in the lineup. Honestly, I am feeling quite tempted by those three-to-one odds for a heavier wager. The results we've witnessed over the last few days have been nothing short of sobering...

Watched the second half of Finland vs. Iceland. Aside from maybe two or three safe counterattacks, Finland spent basically the whole time pinned in their own box.
All three of Iceland's goals came off set pieces. For those keeping track, they were trailing 1-2 until the 90th minute before flipping it to a 2-3 win.🤣
On top of that, Iceland missed a penalty and hit the woodwork, but Hradecki was an absolute beast in goal for Finland and pulled off some insane saves.

Look, I don't care how much I dislike Sova, his boss, or any of these guys playing for them... this is a massive opportunity they can't afford to blow. They’re clearly the better side on paper. Their confidence is definitely up after crushing Mexico 6-0, whereas Finland is missing key players—which matters way more. Plus, losing in the literal final seconds has to be a total mental killer for them.

I doubt Hradecki can pull off another performance like that one against Iceland... so those 1.50-1.55 odds aren't looking too bad.

Finland used to be a much more serious squad back during the Forssell era, but lately, they feel like they've dropped down to the level of Mexico. Our guys have a massive hole in defense right now, so it’s really up to the coach to figure out what to do about that left flank and those shaky passes through the middle when we try to clear the ball from the back. Luckily, it hasn't hit deep winter in Finland yet, so conditions should be playable—I don't think we'll even see any rain. I decided to put my money on us and just see where it goes, mostly because there wasn't much else interesting on the board today.

Albania-Spain (09.10. 20:45)
f+2 SS 1.65 (0-2)


Unfortunately, the odds dropped on this one; they were sitting at 1.80 earlier this morning. After Spain dominated world football for such a long stretch, they went through a bit of a slump that bled into their 2016 Euro performance. That said, Spain definitely has enough star power to field a starting eleven that could compete with pretty much any national team out there. If they can find their rhythm, I truly believe this group can replicate the kind of success we saw under Del Bosque. They look strong across the board—solid in defense (think Pique and Ramos), elite in the midfield (with Koke being such a high-quality presence and Busquets anchoring things), and you can't say a word against their wingers like Silva and Vitolo. They are clearly the favorites in Group G, and I expect them to take every match seriously until the very end. In their last outing, they played to a draw against Italy, even though they held the lead until the 82nd minute before conceding a penalty. They actually looked better in almost every aspect of play during that match, and now they're facing an opponent that is objectively much weaker—a matchup where Spain historically holds a perfect record. With such a deep roster, every player knows they have to put in a massive performance just to keep their spot in the lineup. Albania can be tricky against lower-tier teams, but they still manage to slip up occasionally (they lost 0-3 to Luxembourg this year). Honestly, I don't see anyone in the Albanian squad capable of taking three points away from Spain, or even preventing a comfortable win by multiple goals.

For this match, my stake is 7/10

+3.57

Moving on...

Sunday, October 9, 2016

World Cup Qualification

20:45 North Mexico - Italy X2&2+ (2-3) @1,42
North Mexico has already shown how many gaps they have in their defense.
They haven't conceded a goal yet, mostly because nobody has bothered to push it in.
While the odds are better if you bet on the home team not scoring, this selection acts as a bit of a safety net in case they stumble and let one slip past into the Italian net. I suspect the Italians will clear that 1.5 line easily enough; this is just one of those matches they "have" to win, and the tactical masters will likely play just enough to secure a routine victory without any stress.

20:45 Iceland - Turkey 2+ (2-0) @1,41
I'm betting on this simply because Iceland plays aggressively, attacking almost everyone without showing much respect, so I assume tonight won't be any different.
Generally, their matches tend to produce a decent number of goals, so they should hit even a weak 1.5 line without much trouble.
Turkey isn't known for having a rock-solid defense, so anything could happen on either side.
Besides, several points in the group have been split by draws, so both teams are likely looking to take the full spoils here.

Combo:
WWin 2.00
7/10

+7

October 10, 2016
8:45 PM
World Cup qualification
Canada-Cyprus
over 3.5 yellows @1.75 SS (4)
5/10

It has been quite some time since I last placed a wager on cards.🙂
I am anticipating a high-intensity, aggressive match tonight, and frankly, the odds offered on Canada seem laughably generous. It wouldn’t surprise me one bit if they fail to secure a victory. After their blowout against Estonia in the opening round, Canada was quickly brought back down to earth by Belgium, conceding four goals. In that match against Estonia, they only saw a single yellow card out of three total; however, against Belgium, they picked up three yellows out of four. Meanwhile, Cyprus has stumbled out of the gate with two losses. I had hoped for at least a goal from them, but they seemingly only managed to collect yellow cards.🙂 During their home match against Belgium, they racked up 4 yellows out of 5, and in their matchup against Greece, it was 4 out of 4.
In the previous qualifying matches involving these two nations, both games exceeded this specific threshold for yellow cards.
The referee assigned for tonight is Estrada. He is an excellent choice for those looking to bet on cards, as he has a reputation for being quite strict, frequently penalizing players who dare to protest or argue his decisions.
http://int.soccerway.com/referees/ja...rnandez/60734/
Given my expectation of a physical, heated encounter, there ought to be plenty of cards issued. Player fatigue will likely play its part in escalating the tension as well.
I also anticipate goals on both sides, so there is absolutely no way I am playing it safe with a single outcome given how poor the odds are for a straight win.

+2.95

What can we actually say about this matchup between the U21 squads? Neither Sweden nor our boys seem to be finding any rhythm lately. You’d expect an open game from both sides, which usually means goals, but there's a real chance they'll play it safe early on—nobody wants to be the one to concede first when a 1-0 lead is all you need. Both teams are dealing with significant absences, too. It really comes down to which side feels the loss more heavily. That said, Sweden has been a pleasant surprise in these qualifiers; they're still undefeated.
Ever since Perica joined the national squad, he's been absolutely tearing it up... honestly, he's scored in all four of his last appearances. I'm genuinely holding out hope that he can be the catalyst to carry us through to the Euros. Though, looking at the standings, securing second place isn't even our biggest concern. Spain should have no trouble dispatching Estonia, despite their own few missing players. Spain might just take the liberty to run up the score there.

Gerald Carter53 said:What can we say about these youth squads... neither Sweden nor us seem capable of playing for a draw. I’d expect both sides to play quite openly, which usually leads to some lovely goals... though there is always the possibility they might start cautiously since a simple 1-0 lead is often enough for them. Both teams are dealing with several absences, so the real question is which side will feel the loss more acutely. Sweden has been a pleasant surprise in these qualifiers so far, remaining undefeated.
Ever since Perica joined the national team, he’s been scoring like his life depends on it... honestly, he’s netted in all four of his last appearances. I am personally holding onto the hope that he might be the one to lead us toward the Euro. That said, securing second place isn't really our main concern, as Spain should have no trouble handling Estonia, even with their own few missing players. Spain might just take the liberty to run with it here...

In my experience, when two teams are both fighting for something, draws rarely happen—which feels counterintuitive. Instead, things tend to descend into chaos only in the final minutes, where both sides play wide open, yet somehow neither can find the back of the net 😁

However, looking at recent trends in U21 qualification, we see quite a few goals being scored in the first half. This aligns well with my current thinking, so perhaps the smartest move would be to hunt for over 1 goal in the first half, or potentially even 3+ goals early on if you're feeling bold and chasing those higher odds (around 7-8).

Here is what I am leaning towards: over 2 goals in the first half at odds of 5.75 (1-1) on bet365 🙂
Stake: 5 out of 10

0

Latvia vs Canada
2@2.00 Interwetten 4/10 (0-2)

After looking decent during the Euro, the Canadians have completely flopped in this World Cup qualifying run. Grabbing just one point from two matches—a scoreless draw away at the Faroe Islands followed by a 2-3 home loss to Switzerland—is pathetic. They're stuck in a group with heavyweights like Portugal and Switzerland; they can't afford to be throwing points around like this.

They’re heading out to face Latvia today, which is basically a total wreck. Latvia managed a 1-0 win away against Andorra, but then turned around three days ago and lost 0-2 at home to the Faroe Islands.

On paper, Canada is the much better side. Given that a win here is basically life or death for them, I'm betting they actually show up and grind out all three points.
Yesterday, you could find these odds at @2.00 everywhere. Now, only Interwetten is still holding that line; everywhere else, it's already dropped to 1.85 or lower.

+4

Columbus Crew vs Los Angeles FC 2@1.65 Gestapo (0-1)

Look, there's not much to overthink here. LAFC is trailing way too far behind for first place, so this is basically their golden ticket to grab those 3 points...
I haven't sat down to do some deep dive analysis or anything, but... haha 🙂

10/10

+5.1

Yeah, they really need those three points right now.

20/10 double all in

driftingbear35 said:I don't have any deep tactical breakdown ready for you, but... haha 🙂

St. Louis City SC lost their last home game, and looking at their last two matchups against Los Angeles FC, they’ve basically become a walking payday for LA. Los Angeles FC will likely be playing without Memphis, but otherwise, their starting lineup looks pretty solid. Even though LAFC had a rough start to the season, their away record is actually quite impressive—they've won almost everything on the road, with that one fluke loss to San Francisco being the only outlier. Because of that, playing in St. Louis doesn't feel like much of an advantage for the home side. Honestly, it feels like the coaching change happened at just the right moment, too. I think even a narrow win for the visitors should be a safe bet here.

LA Galaxy - Sevilla FC 2@1.60 (0-1)

LA Galaxy are heading out to face a Sevilla FC side that’s absolutely crushing it in the Champions League so far.
They just came off a massive 0-0 draw away against Juventus FC, which was huge... then they turned around and knocked out Olympique Lyonnais 1-0.
Honestly? I don't see LA Galaxy standing a prayer against Sevilla FC. They’re just in a completely different league, and I’m definitely not expecting any miracles tonight...
There's really not much more to say about this one.
Maybe driftingbear35 can jump back in with some thoughts.

Club Brugge KV-FC Porto x2@1.20 (1-2)

Porto is sitting in 3rd place, just 3 points behind Copenhagen, who have a brutal away match waiting for them at Leicester City today. Club Brugge is dead last in 4th place with zero points and a goal difference of 0-7. The home side is in deep trouble because they're missing five absolute starters: wingers Izquierdo and Refaelov, last season's top scorer Diaby, plus left back de Bock and center back Engels. On the flip side, Porto is fully loaded now that Corone, Varela, and Brahmini are all back in the lineup. Porto is clearly the superior squad here, so I'm taking x2 just to be safe...

Olympique Lyonnais - Juventus FC x2@1.20 (0-1)

Even though I'm pretty sure Juventus FC is going to walk away with a win today, I'll play it safe and take the x2.
Olympique Lyonnais will be without Jallet and Grenier, even if Lacazette is finally returning to the squad... but still, I don't think that's enough to stop a Juventus FC team that's playing lights-out football right now. The only real headache for the visitors is that Chiellini is still out, but I'm expecting another gritty, defensive battle ending in a 0-1 for the away side...

2.30 4/10
SS

+4.24

LP 20:45
FC Barcelona - Manchester City
Red Card DA @4,65 Favorit
3/10

I’ll be watching this match tonight; hopefully, it provides some semblance of excitement. 🙂
A few statistical observations... These two sides last met back in 2014 during the Round of 16. In the first leg, we saw a red card and a penalty. The return leg? Just a red card. They crossed paths again in the Round of 16 last year, where the first leg produced both a red and a penalty, while the second leg saw only a penalty. Of course, a Round of 16 knockout stage isn't quite the same as this third round of the group stage, but I am operating on the premise that both squads possess players who are prime candidates for cards, especially given that the motivation and hunger to prove oneself in matches of this caliber are invariably higher. Tonight’s referee is Mazic; in my estimation, he is an overrated official, not significantly better than the referees we see here in the States. This season in European club competitions, he officiated the Super Cup between Real Madrid and Sevilla FC. That match saw a red card in extra time and a penalty. He also handled the Rostov vs Ajax qualifying match, which featured both a red card and a penalty. His most recent Champions League group stage fixture was Benfica vs Besiktas, which was relatively quiet—no penalties or red cards. Regardless, Mazic is a reliable choice when betting on yellow cards.
My second wager is that there will be a penalty @3,55 Favorit 3/10. I must give credit to the favorite for offering the best odds among our domestic sportsbooks for these specific markets, though it is a shame they don't allow for parlays. I might attempt to combine both bets together @11,52, though I'd rate that at a 1/10 probability—just pure speculation. On one of my slips, I'll certainly find a play for over 3.5 or 4.5 yellows at Wwin. As I recall, Wwin counts a red card as two yellows, and two yellows plus a red counts as three yellows. Unless, of course, their rules regarding card counting have changed since the last time I placed a bet on them.

+25,51

Wednesday, 10/19/2016

20:45 Boston Celtic - Borussia Mönchengladbach Over 3+ (0-2) @1.60
I expect an open, attacking match here.
It's a direct battle for 3rd place—though both sides likely still harbor dreams of 2nd, which would require a massive points haul in this specific matchup—to keep the European run alive.
Boston Celtic's defense is looking incredibly shaky; they gave up ten goals over the first two matches.
The Germans aren't far behind, having conceded six.
Knowing Borussia Mönchengladbach, they’ll likely push for the win from the kickoff, and the home side will also be looking for three points in front of their fans after that promising 3-3 draw against the Citizens.
Expect attacks and goals—just goals.

20:45 Dynamo Kyiv - Benfica 1X & Under 4.5 (0-2) @1.45
Both teams sit on one point after two rounds.
Kyiv secured a solid point in Istanbul, though they blew a lead against Napoli in the opening round.
Benfica was disappointing with a 1-1 home draw against Beşiktaş, followed by getting slapped with a four-goal loss in Naples.
Benfica doesn't seem as dominant as they have in years, so they face a very difficult away trip here.
A loss for either side would almost certainly end their hopes for the second group stage, though a draw isn't catastrophic since Beşiktaş is also struggling; it looks like only Napoli might pull away.
This could turn into a game of patience, waiting for an opponent's mistake rather than rushing in. I suppose I expect slight dominance from the home side in a cold Kyiv, where I doubt they'll repeat the mistakes made against the Italians.
Furthermore, I don't think this match will exceed the 4.5 goal margin.

WWin
Combo: 2.32
5/10

-5

IFK Mariehamn - Ilves 1@1.62 (2-1)
Bet365
10/10

It’s the final round of the league, so the math here is pretty straightforward. If the home team pulls off a win, they grab the championship title right then and there. Any other result puts them in this weird spot where they’d have to pray for a draw in the matchup between Helsinki and SJK—which, honestly, feels like a long shot since both those sides are going to be charging for a win if they want any chance at the trophy. I'm leaning towards Mariehamn capping off their season with a victory tonight and taking home the title.

+6,2

Finland 1. Liga
14:00h
HJK - SJK
over 3+ YES @2 wwin
5/10

The final round of the season brings several matches where the stakes couldn't be higher. One such encounter is this clash between the 2nd and 3rd placed teams in the league, a match where a victory could potentially secure the championship title—provided the leaders, Mariehamn, suffer a slip-up. Since it kicks off at 2:00 PM, I won't dwell too extensively on the details. You can look up their head-to-head history yourselves; they frequently engage in high-scoring affairs. Their recent league outings have followed a similar pattern, particularly for SJK. Both sides possess quite an offensive edge. In my estimation, this match might mirror the intensity we see in the games between the Sweden U21 and American youth national teams. We should expect open, attacking play here. I have settled on over 3+ goals, though I am still weighing other options like over 1.5 in the second half or even over 4+. I will give those more thought. However, teams with this level of firepower and this much to play for generally produce efficient, high-scoring performances. Naturally, they will be keeping a close eye on the Mariehamn scoreline, and I am hopeful that game remains interesting enough to ensure both sides maintain their motivation to win. There are several other intriguing matchups on the board, so do take a look; perhaps something catches your eye. 🙂

+5

Cork City vs. Wexford Youths

From the home side's official site:
http://www.corkcityfc.ie/home/2016/1...youths-game-2/

To put it briefly, this is a rescheduled fixture. Normally, there would be one round left in the season, but here we are. The home team is effectively stuck in second place—they can't move up, and they certainly won't drop down. As for the visitors, their situation is desperate; they absolutely must win tonight and then win their next match while praying for a loss from Finn in the final round just to stay in the league. If they don't manage that, they'll be heading straight into the relegation playoffs. They played a scoreless 0-0 draw against Finn at home over the weekend, which really tightened the noose around their necks regarding direct survival. The hosts are currently focusing their energy on the cup final on November 6th, but they’ve signaled some roster shifts, including bringing up three players from the U19 squad tonight, alongside a few other absences. Motivation for the home side might stem from it being their last game in front of their own supporters, or perhaps fringe players seeing this as a chance to prove themselves. However, the visitors undoubtedly carry the heavier burden of motivation. They’ve already proven they can handle this opponent; they held them to a 0-0 draw earlier in the season, and they edged out a 1-0 win at home during the latter half. According to the link provided, the home side expects the visitors to abandon their usual defensive, counter-attacking style and instead play an open, attacking game from the whistle.
Looking at our local bookmakers, SS offers the best odds for the away side to score @ 2. A slightly more conservative approach might be betting that the visitors won't lose by more than two goals @ 1.40 at PSK. If we truly expect an open game, then goals should definitely be on the table.
There might be some value to be extracted from this matchup 🙂

Chievo vs Bologna
Over 4.5 yellows @1.70 SS (4)
5/10

I find this line to be somewhat arbitrary. A threshold of 5.5 would feel much more grounded in reality, similar to how certain other bookmakers set their limits. It is highly probable that SS will eventually adjust this figure. Both sides are prone to cards, particularly Chievo, whom I expect will easily push us past this limit, especially given it is the final round. Furthermore, the referee is quite prolific when it comes to issuing cards.
http://int.soccerway.com/referees/fa...94692/matches/
He typically officiates in the second division, though he occasionally gets called up to the first division, as seen today.
Last year, back in December, we saw a match involving Chievo against Atalanta where things boiled over—6 yellows and 2 reds were handed out.

-5

Cologne vs Hamburg 5:30 PM
Over 3.5 Yellow Cards @1.70 SS (4)
6/10
To put it briefly... we have a solid line here. Had it been set at 4.5, I would have hesitated significantly on whether to pull the trigger. The referee is a bit of a wild card; he’s the type who occasionally decides to hand out cards with reckless abandon. My primary motivation for this play is Hamburg—they tend to rack up yellow cards in almost every single match due to their aggressive, physical style of play. I recall a recent cup match where they cruised to a 4-0 victory yet still walked away with five yellows. Cologne is generally more composed, though they aren't immune to picking up a card now and then. Historically, matchups between these two sides have been quite heavy on disciplinary action. Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if Hamburg alone pushes us over this threshold. They are fighting for survival in the standings, and that level of desperation breeds immense tension and pressure. In my estimation, this looks like a very promising setup.

+3.3