Soccer Betting Tips & Discussion

About 4 or 5 days ago, Unibet was offering a possession threshold of 57.5% for Portugal, and after seeing the insane pressure Morocco put on them during that first match, I was absolutely convinced we were looking at an under. Now, they’ve gone and dropped the line to 53.5% across the board, which is frustrating, but honestly, I still think even that could land.

Got a little strategy for the Super Bowl: If there isn't a penalty in one game, I'm betting on the next one to have one.

So, since there wasn't a single penalty in Portugal vs Morocco, I’m putting my money on Uruguay vs Saudi Arabia penalty-yes @2.90

Uruguay shouldn't get too ahead of themselves thinking Russia is some kind of favorite now—they just let everyone down! Honestly, Uruguay plays way better against teams that actually leave space, and since Russia is playing in front of a massive home crowd, they’re definitely going to play more wide open than they did back in Japan or against Belgium.
Plus, don't forget that when the national team plays, it's basically a holiday in Uruguay! They aren't going to overextend themselves when they know the entire country has stopped everything just to watch them.

@ 1,30 on Uruguay—it's not a huge payout, but hey, I'll take it! Especially if Spain crushes Iran by a landslide tonight; if that happens, it's pretty much a lock that the group winner will end up facing a much weaker Portugal.

jadewolf16 said:If Uruguay just let everyone down, they shouldn't kid themselves thinking Russia is some kind of favorite now. Uruguay actually plays much better against teams that leave gaps, and Russia is definitely going to play more openly because of the home crowd pressure, unlike how they played in Japan or against Belgium.
Don't forget, when the national team plays in Uruguay, it’s practically a holiday; they aren't going to overexert themselves when they know the entire country has stopped everything just to watch them.

@ 1.30 on Uruguay—it's not a massive payout, but it's enough to make me smile, especially if Spain beats Iran by a landslide tonight. If that happens, it's almost a certainty that the group winner will end up facing a much weaker Portugal.

In my opinion, the real value in this match is looking at the over on Russian possession. Of course, it depends on what line they set, but I honestly think they'll sit back, let Russia hold the ball, and then just spring those counter-attacks. They didn't play any differently against that joke of a Saudi Arabia side, after all.

America over 1.5 yellow cards at 1.65

In the game against Nigeria, there were 2 yellows from 20 fouls.
Today, I expect plenty of fouls on Lionel Messi, and with the referee likely giving him some protection, this should probably go over.

@PSK

There’s gotta be a penalty coming today... I’m definitely playing it for America vs Argentina, (3,0 SS) - some random defender is going to trip up Lionel Messi and that'll be that. Thinking about pairing it with a red card too (4,0 SS)

Lionel Messi won't find the back of the net @1,60 PSK

The man is completely demoralized following that opening match—his communication on the pitch is practically non-existent—and they even sent his wife along to try and lift his spirits.
In that first game, he covered a measly 4.7 miles kilometers, which is quite frankly the lowest distance tracked by any player in this entire tournament over a 90-minute stretch.

If anyone finds this relevant—and I suspect some might—it’s worth noting that Messi is a Cancer in the zodiac. We are currently navigating a rather critical period for Cancers due to the influence of retrograde Saturn, a planet that has never been particularly kind to them. Consequently, Cancers tend to lose their cool easily right now, struggling with patience and dealing with bouts of hysteria.
And please, spare me the laughter; if people insist on tracking the menstrual cycles of female tennis players, then why shouldn't we keep an eye on the horoscope? 😁

Argentina over 54.5% possession 1.75 PSK, Unibet 55% at 1.72 over

The US lineup looks a bit more defensive here—Kramarić is sitting on the bench while Badelj gets the nod, so it seems like the coaching staff decided to just hand control over to Argentina and park the bus. And let’s be honest, Argentina lives for possession: Argentina
-Tournament: Iceland 77%
-Friendlies: Haiti 74%, Spain 50%, Italy 62%, Nigeria 64%, Russia 67%, Brazil 54%
-Qualifiers: Ecuador 46%, Peru 66%, Venezuela 75%, Uruguay 80%, Bolivia 53%...

stormyharbor13 said:I guess the US over 1.5 yellow cards at 1.65 might be worth looking at.

Against Nigeria, I'm thinking 2 yellows with over 20 fouls.
I expect Lionel Messi to draw plenty of fouls today. Given the referee's tendency to protect star players, I guess that should push us toward the over.

@PSK

Smoothly. 🙂

For today:

I guess Mexico vs Switzerland might see over 3.5 yellow cards at 1.75. Maybe.

The tension is thick enough to cut with a knife. 🙂
I expect a high level of tension and nerves here. It’s a massive game, so I imagine there will be plenty of fouls and physical shoving matches. This should probably go my way.

I expect Brazil to score at least two goals, priced at 1.45.

This is a critical match. They need to step up the intensity here and prove they can actually be taken seriously.
Costa Rica looked completely lost in that first one; maybe Mexico could have beaten them convincingly.

@PSK

I’m honestly leaning towards betting on red cards in the Mexico game instead of yellows—I mean, if that hit on Ivan Rakitić wasn't enough for a straight red, then I don't know what is!
Only one red card so far, and that was for that blatant intentional handball... maybe there really is some weird directive in place or something?

Look, they don't want anyone ruining the final, right? Back in 2010, the Dutch should have walked away with at least three goals in the final, but nope—nothing happened. That's why, for a final, it’s totally worth playing "No Red Card"—unless, you know, the keeper wanders out of the box and uses his hands, but I rarely ever see that happen!

stormyharbor13 said:Brazil scores over 1.5 goals at 1.45

Such a massive game... I mean, they really need to step it up here and prove they aren't just some easy win. They have to show people they actually belong in the conversation.
Costa Rica looked completely washed in their first match; honestly, maybe even a team like Mexico could have walked all over them.

@PSK

Same thing on PSK—taking 1 and Over 2.5 goals @2.00. It’s basically the exact same bet, if you ask me. 🤷

bluebison47 said:It is essentially the same thing at PSK, whether you select over 1 or over 2.5 goals at @2.00 odds, as they are practically identical outcomes. 🤷

I find it difficult to agree that those two scenarios are identical, given that choosing over 2 goals implies a minimum of three, whereas the other option simply requires more than two.

The first penalty gets wiped out—and wouldn't you know it, it's against Dave!! 😉

Euro 2016's most hyped matchup

France vs Albania 2-0 (goals in the 90+1 and 90+6 minutes)

FIFA 2018's big one (already talked about this like ten days ago!)

Brazil vs Costa Rica 2-0 (90+1, 90+6)

Even Stevan is on board with the card predictions

Stefan Djordjevic‎ to Analiza Free
1 hr ·
20:00 Mexico vs Switzerland CARDS OVER 3.5 at 1.85

THE DECIDING DUEL TO SEE WHO MOVES ON

Mexico kicked things off with a win and were really banking on Brazil doing their job against Switzerland—but nope, that didn't happen, and now they're stuck in a pretty tight spot. Mexico absolutely has to hunt for those 3 points today if they want to advance or even hope to catch up to Brazil, which honestly looks like a massive uphill battle. Switzerland pulled off a solid result against Brazil, so here they'll be looking to at least avoid a loss, though a win would settle everything for them. We're looking at a high-tension match, and I'm thinking this is the perfect setup for cards—I mean, when the whole tournament is on the line, if things don't get heated here, where will they??

Germany to score 2+ goals @1.70

Even though Mexico had chances to kill them on the counter, I guess the Germans controlled most of the play and racked up quite a few shots.
They need to step it up even more today, and I suspect Sweden won't hold out without conceding a couple.

Korea vs Mexico 2 @1.70

They really need to back up that big win from the first round today and secure their ticket to the Round of 16.
There's even a chance we end up with a three-way tie at 6 points, so there's no room to relax—they have to take care of what is arguably the weakest team in the group.

@PSK

Mexico, I'm with you on that one...
As for Germany—the only thing I’d touch is the under or an X2. The Germans just don't inspire any confidence lately...

Germany is offering @2.05 for a German win with a total of 2-4 goals.
I seriously doubt the Swedes will fall apart and let Germany absolutely demolish them.
If you're betting on a win, this is a solid play.

Is nobody seeing the actual value in Tunisia here? At least when they're playing against the underdogs?
Belgium looked completely off their game in that opening match—regardless of that 3:0 scoreline.
The Tunisians managed to find the back of the net against the English side, only to see the points slip through their fingers in the final minutes.

Look, I had to—call me crazy if you want, but there's no way I'm missing this, especially if Buručaga actually goes beast mode 🙏

Poland vs Colombia 2+ @1,35
This is a massive match where both sides absolutely need a win.
Both teams have strong attacking setups, so there should be plenty of goals here.

Japan vs Senegal X2 @1,34
Japan was lucky to snatch those 3 points from Colombia.
I think Senegal might actually be the stronger side; it could be worth a shot to back their win, though I suspect they won't lose.
They have good pace and tend to create a fair amount of chances.

England 3+ @2,20
Those English players always intimidate me, but Panama is a significantly weaker squad.
England needs to secure a convincing victory against someone.
I'm mostly picking this because the odds look decent; I think they can manage three goals.

PSK 3,98