Soccer Betting Tips & Discussion

Carl Torres21 said:Found this on DraftKings, though I noticed Hattrick has the exact same odds.

By the way, DraftKings and Hattrick are basically linked; they might even be the same outfit.

Real Sociedad vs Man Utd: 2 at 2.6 or X2 at 1.5 (0:0)

Experience leans toward United here. Unfortunately, we’ll probably see old man Giggs starting in the XI again. Real Sociedad has three losses under their belt so far—they only managed to find the net against Leverkusen. They have to push forward today, and honestly, that leaves plenty of gaps for United to exploit.

Juventus vs Real Madrid: 1X at 1.55 or 1 at 2.6 (2:2)

Juve absolutely cannot afford to lose this one. They didn't deserve that loss in the first matchup, but hey, the ref had other ideas. As for Real Madrid? They're a joke right now. Honestly, some local amateur league player could probably walk in and bag two goals against them.😁.

Man City vs CSKA: 1 & Over 1.5 at 1.8 (5:2)

City is on a tear after absolutely demolishing those Canary Island birds 7-0. Meanwhile, CSKA has been looking terrible in both their domestic league and the Champions League. You'd expect them to concede at least 2 or 3, and if they're lucky, maybe scrape a goal themselves.

Eric Fox7 said:I have to disagree with you there. Especially since Galatasaray tends to struggle much more when they're playing away from home, and FC Copenhagen is really starting to find their rhythm after such a rough start to the season.
Personally, I'm leaning towards the option where FCF Copenhagen scores a goal

Does anyone know why these kinds of bets aren't showing up on Bet365? Do they only release those markets once the game actually kicks off?

It’s honestly wild to me that Mancini is actually giving a shot to some third or fourth-string keeper like Iscan... I mean, seriously? Having Ufuk Ceylan just sitting there on the bench while neither Fernando Muslera nor Aykut are even in the mix is just bizarre...

Zlatan Ibrahimović is starting in the XI

Roger Phillips said:It’s pretty wild that Mancini is actually giving a shot to a third or fourth stringer like Iscan. Having Ufuk Ceylan just sitting on the bench... they don't even have Muslera or Aykut available today.

Well, Muslera is banged up. Everyone’s known for a couple of days now that he’s out. And honestly, that alone basically guarantees they’ll concede at least one. Without him stepping up to make those crucial saves, this defense is just... a disaster.

Is it actually possible to forecast the odds at domestic sportsbooks based on this data? I’m asking specifically about this particular betting type and this specific matchup.

http://www.oddsportal.com/soccer/wor...10FA/#double;2

Anthony Davis19 said:Why doesn't BetMGM offer these types of options? Or do they just wait until the game actually kicks off to list them?

I’m not quite sure where you got the impression that those aren't available on BetMGM.
If you took a moment to actually scan their full sportsbook, you'd see these bets are standard fare for most matchups, especially for the big games.
Most major US sportsbooks present them this way:

goldenhound32 said:Is it actually possible to use this data to predict the betting lines offered by domestic sportsbooks? I am asking specifically regarding this particular market type and this specific match.

http://www.oddsportal.com/soccer/wor...10FA/#double;2

1 x 2 1x x2 12 f+2
Iceland vs USA 11/15 3.70 3.30 2.10 1.75 1.30 1.35 3.80

Here is the screenshot you requested.🤷

jadesailor said:1 x 2 1x x2 12 f+2
US Island Territory Nov 15th 3.70 3.30 2.10 1.75 1.30 1.35 3.80

Here’s what I found in the screenshot... 🤷

Wait, where exactly did you see that in the screenshot? I've been looking through it just now and I can't seem to find it at all... 🤷

Edit: Found it... 🙂

LIVE

LA Galaxy vs. Houston Dynamo 48 minutes 1, 1.79 (0:0)

The Galaxy are absolutely tearing it up at home right now—and if you look at those possession stats above, they’re basically running circles around everyone else on the pitch...

meanwhile, the visitors are looking totally lifeless on the road, zero chance of pulling this off today...

home side should walk away with the win here, easy...

Thursday 21:05

Rijeka vs. Lyon 1 @ 2.90 (1-1)

Honestly, Rijeka held their own back in France, so why wouldn't they dominate at home now? Especially since Lyon is showing up with basically a B-team—I mean, seriously, not a single player from the starting lineup they had two weeks ago is going to be on the pitch for Rijeka today!

jadewolf16 said:Thursday 2105

Portland vs. Lyon 1 @ 2.90

Portland used to be on equal footing with teams like Lyon back in the day, and honestly, I don't see how they won't be again now that Lyon is showing up with their B-team—as in, literally nobody from the starting lineup they had just two weeks ago is going to be playing in Portland.

Something about this just feels off to me. Then again, Lyon’s second string is packed with decent players who are hungry to prove themselves. Still, Portland really needs to find the back of the net; it’s not a massive underdog bet at 1.30, but I have a feeling it's a pretty safe bet.

Paul Anderson7 said:I’m feeling a bit skeptical about this one too. Then again—Lyon's B-team is loaded with solid players looking to prove themselves. Still, Portland should find the back of the net... it isn't a massive payout at 1.30, but I think it's a relatively safe bet.

If you aren't sold on a Portland win, but you're convinced they'll score, why bother risking cash on a measly 1.3 (it's actually 1.4 on FanDuel), when for both teams to score, you get a much better 1.85 (1-1)?
Besides—Lyon hasn't just been conceding to Betis in their last seven away games, and Portland hasn't just been failing to score against Seattle in their last fifteen home matches...

Look, you've got a point there. 😁

Standard Liège vs. RB Salzburg (Nov 7, 7:00 PM) 1 @2.60 (1:3)
FC St. Gallen vs. CF Valencia (Nov 7, 7:00 PM) 2 @2.1 (2:3)

Standard really just needs this win, and honestly, I don't think they're any worse than RB Salzburg. Plus, looking at how things are going, it feels like Salzburg has basically already punched their ticket, so I’m expecting them to maybe rest some of their heavy hitters.
A draw would work just fine for Valencia, but there’s such a noticeable gap in quality here—and the odds are decent enough—that I’m placing this bet without overthinking it too much.
The biggest headache when betting on the Europa League is the total lack of intel regarding motivation. You never quite know which teams actually care about this tournament and which ones are just going through the motions. That's exactly why we see so many upsets, and it makes betting on those tiny, heavy favorite odds feel incredibly risky.

Seattle Sounders vs. LA Galaxy........2@7.80 for 3/10
Seattle Sounders vs. LA Galaxy.........x2@2.9 for 7/10 (0:2)

I’ve been trying really hard to stay away from the sportsbook lately, I swear, but I just had to give this one a shot. Like, I was just passing by and overheard what the odds were looking like and I felt like I absolutely had to try it... Based on everything I’ve been following lately, just reading the news and stuff, I guess the odds should probably be more like 3:3:3. I honestly don't get why Seattle is the favorite here? Is it because of how they've been playing in the MLS or maybe some Champions League match? They just lost their captain and another starter in their last game, and they've been without their starting goalie for a while now too... I mean, I don't necessarily think they're gonna lose to LA, but those odds just seem totally off to me, like, there's gotta be some serious value here if you ask me.

Good luck everyone!!

Thursday, May 21st

PSV Eindhoven vs. LAFC — Both teams to NOT score @ 1.90 (2:0)

It’s absolutely pouring in Eindhoven right now—like, the forecast says it won't let up all day! The pitch is gonna be totally soaked, which usually means slower play and more chaos, right? Honestly, I think LAFC has enough grit to hold a clean sheet, and PSV just hasn't been looking sharp enough to find the back of the net lately.

hollowwalker10 said:PSV vs. Dinamo........2@7.80 for 3/10
PSV vs. Dinamo.........x2@2.9 for 7/10

I’ve been trying to steer clear of the sportsbooks lately, but I just have to take a shot at this one. I caught a glimpse of the odds while passing by, and it felt like something I couldn't ignore. Based on what I’ve been reading in the papers and following recently, I feel like the spread should be closer to a 3:3:3 split. I honestly don't see why PSV is coming in as the favorite here. What exactly did they show in their domestic league or in the Champions League to earn that status? They just lost their captain and another key starter in their last match, not to mention being without their starting keeper for a while now. It isn't that I think a squad in that state can beat Dinamo, but the odds seem off—there’s definitely some value to be found if you look at it closely.

Good luck to everyone!!

I’m on board with the pick because the line at DraftKings looks like genuine value.
Here is my logic: if these two teams were playing a three-game series right now, given their current momentum and how poorly PSV performed in their last outing in Los Angeles, I’m fairly confident Dinamo would walk away with a win in at least one of those matches. So, why not place a bet that they’ll secure a victory in one out of eight attempts?

HL @8.00 (2:0)
5/10

Seattle Sounders - LA Galaxy 2@2.15 (0:1)

The whole damn squad is playing for Seattle today except for one guy sitting out on a league suspension.
Everyone’s basically being rested because they’ve got that massive matchup against Portland this weekend, and if they want to stay relevant in the standings, they absolutely have to win that one.
Even the coach admitted it—league play is the priority right now. They’ll just deal with the Europa League stuff next match once they've secured their spot.
Look, we all know LA Galaxy isn't the powerhouse they used to be, but even so, Seattle should walk away with the win today.
Plus, the coach teased there's some serious cash on the line for a win—I don't know the exact amount, but you can bet the players are hungry.

FC Dallas - Orlando City 1@2.10 (1:0)
Orlando is playing without their heavy hitters Bangura and Keene today, plus Hult is staying home too.
After pulling off that 2-1 road win, Dallas should steamroll Orlando. Orlando doesn't have anything to play for in the tournament, while Dallas is fighting tooth and nail for first place.
Dallas is just tweaking the formation slightly; instead of their usual 4-4-2, they're going with a 4-4-1-1.

Atlanta United - Real Betis 1@2.60 (0:1)
The home stadium is gonna be packed, and the visitors are missing half their roster—Chica, Amaya, Paulao, Matilla, Reyes, Sevilla, and Castro are all out.
The home side is only missing Matias and Malonga.
Honestly, I don't see any other outcome here besides a home win.

AZ Alkmaar - Shakhtar Donetsk f+2@1.55 (1:0)
AZ is coming out with a full-strength lineup, while the visitors are in a total mess. Six of their starters are sidelined today.
They traveled with a tiny squad of only 14 players including two keepers, which means they've only got two subs on the bench... yikes.
Those Dutch teams are famous for playing fast, high-scoring, aggressive soccer. I'm calling it now: they win this by one or more goals.

Thursday, Nov 7th
Europa League
9:05 PM

Sevilla (-1+) - Slovan Liberec | Sevilla Over 1.35 (1:1)

The last matchup ended in a 1-1 draw over in the Czech Republic, though I guess Sevilla controlled most of the possession and created significantly more chances.
I suspect they'll play even better at home and might manage at least two goals.

Europa League
9:05 PM

AZ Alkmaar - Shakhtar Karagandy f+2 | 1.55 (1:0)

The Kazakh side is decent enough when playing at home, but they're a different story on the road; they've been conceding quite a few goals in European play this season.
AZ should probably handle this routinely against the spread.