NBA Betting: Vol. 2

Live - Miami to win at +675, definitely worth a shot... 🙂

James Smith50 said:Live! Miami at +675? Honestly, I feel like that might actually be worth a shot. Just a thought. 🙂

The odds are sliding down a bit... maybe we actually have a shot here. Fingers crossed. 😁
OKC got off to a pretty rough start, but somehow they’ve managed to pull ahead and take the lead already. 😍

The Kings are gonna be feeling it tonight without their star, D. Cousins, on the court.

Lawrence Castillo76 said:The Kings, missing their top guy D. Cousins tonight

What's the verdict? I'm leaning towards:
LALakers(h-9,5)-Sacramento-1@1,85

🤔

stormyseal9 said:OKC (203.5) – Cleveland Under
-if you ask me, that margin is way too huge considering how these teams are actually playing. I mean, OKC has been on an 8-game tear where they stay under 200 total points. The home team is averaging about 99 points scored while giving up 92.5, whereas the visitors are sitting at a 98/103 split🤷. Looking at the last 7 games, the under hit 5-1-1, and when you look specifically at games played in OKC over the last 4, the under popped 3 times
. James Under 25.5
-he’s nowhere near as efficient this year as he was in years past, but honestly, does he even need to be? With Allen coming in to pick up the slack from the other guys, why push it? So far this season, the only time he’s even cracked 26 points was that first game against Boston (8-12), which doesn't surprise me one bit given how intense that rivalry gets. The home team looks like a beast on the boards with some solid individual players (Allen, Gay...) who really lock it down defensively, and I don't think they're gonna let Gay go too crazy, especially after that nagging knee injury he picked up on Friday—no coach is going to ride him too hard there
. Miami Under 98.5
-even though Miami is one of the most explosive squads in the league, they are a completely different animal on the road, and they definitely aren't facing an easy night against Memphis. Memphis allows about 90 points at home on average, and with Wade and James not being at 100% health, how on earth is the visiting team supposed to blow past this margin?🤷I just don't see it happening🤷.
Brooklyn (190.5) – Orlando Under
-I remember when Brooklyn absolutely demolished Magic on the road, winning 107-68, and that was actually the first time in ten games they’d even broken the 100-point mark. The visitors started the season strong with two wins but then totally fell off a cliff, especially in their last two outings where they averaged only about 71 points. I'm not expecting a shootout here, especially with all the guys out (Wallace / Hedo, Harrington, Nelson???)
.
Going bigger than usual on this one, SS

17w/17l

really hope someone followed👍, money's in the bag and now it's time to just chill and head to bed🙂,🙂

Drew Wright said:Maybe it's because they kicked things off at 9...🤷

It was available at SS...

It was actually available at the time—but apparently, people here read everything too closely... so by the time I went to make my deposit around 7 PM, they had already capped my limit... $500. 😠

stormyseal9 said:I hope someone was able to catch that...👍Money's in the bank—now it's time to just relax and head out...🙂,🙂

Thanks to you and the rest of the crew as well... 👍

wiredcanyon39 said:OKC -9.5 @1.85
Everyone knows OKC has an absolute beast of a squad right now. They usually just steamroll opponents at home, especially when they run into those lower-tier teams from the East. I mean, Cleveland is showing flashes of talent, sure, but they aren't really going anywhere for the next couple of seasons. Irving is their main guy, but tonight he’ll mostly be leaning on Westbrook—who’s a hell of an athlete—and maybe they'll throw a defensive specialist like Sefolosh at him. That duo should pretty much shut him down. Varejão has had a decent start to the season, but trying to get anything significant going against Ibaka / Perkins in the paint tonight? Good luck with that. Their two biggest scoring options are basically going to be smothered, so I don't see OKC having any trouble dropping a hundred points through KD, Westbrook, and Martin.
I totally agree with you regarding the Clippers, especially seeing how bad Atlanta is playing on the perimeter. Honestly, I think Paul is going to tear them apart tonight. I'm also taking the Nets and Orlando—it's pretty self-explanatory. You've got two weak teams without any elite scorers, so overall, it feels like an under to me.

☕

stormyseal9 said:I just hope someone kept a close eye on👍, pocketing the profit and finally walking away in peace,🙂,🙂

Oh, absolutely. That's exactly how it should be done.🙂

T. Lawson over 14.5 @1.85
Even though he’s had a bit of a slow start to the season and struggled a little from deep in his last two outings, I really think betting on this explosive Nuggets PG is the move today. In a Denver squad that plays such heavy team-oriented ball, Lawson is still looking at about 14 shot attempts per game, plus he consistently gets himself to the free throw line. My main reasoning here is the sheer speed of play; both Denver and their opponents today, the Suns, love to run. Both teams sit comfortably in the top 5 for pace, which basically means more possessions and more opportunities to sprint from end to end—and that’s exactly where a quick guy like Lawson becomes a nightmare in transition. I also can't forget that in his last two matchups against Dragic last season, Lawson put up 25 and 20 points. It just feels right.

Kirilenko over 11.5 @1.85

With Dirk out under the rim and their defensive specialist Marion missing—who usually keeps guys like Kirilenko in check—things look shaky for Dallas. They’ve been giving up over 100 points per game this season, and they just let the Bobcats drop 101 on them in their last outing. Looking at the stats, they’re giving up about 18.4 points at Kirilenka's position, and honestly, that number is even higher when Marion is actually on the floor to help out. Last game, they surrendered 25 points to that MKG rookie. Plus, the Wolves are absolutely decimated by injuries right now; they've been without Love and Rubio for a bit, and tonight they're also missing Budinger, Roy, and Bare. I guess most of the heavy lifting is going to fall on Pekovic and Kirilenka, who I think will definitely have to force a few extra shots tonight just to keep up.
Portland – Atlanta -2.5 1 @1.85
Portland has been looking incredible at home this season, and I don't see that changing anytime soon. They had a great showing against the Spurs a couple of days ago, even if they did end up losing. Lillard is absolutely cooking this year, while Aldridge and Batum are doing their usual thing to keep them afloat. Atlanta is still a solid squad, but man, they really struggle on the road. They’re heading into the Rosa Garden right after a brutal road trip and a loss to the Clippers yesterday. They played well enough, but the home team eventually broke them. Now they’re playing without Joe Johnson, and since this is a back-to-back, I’m thinking it’s going to be a long night for them. I'm leaning towards another loss here.

Dallas Mavericks(-6.5)-Minnesota Timberwolves 1 @1.85

Minnesota’s off to a great start this season, especially considering they're playing without Kevin Love and Ruby. But tonight, they're also missing Budinger, so I guess anything other than a double-digit loss would be a miracle. The Mavericks have started things up pretty solidly too, even knowing they're missing their best player, so maybe they won't push too hard tonight either.
The main thing drawing me to this pick is that Minnesota just doesn't have anyone left to step up. Like I said at the start of the season, they haven't had Kevin Love or Ruby, then Barry went down about a week ago, and now Budinger is out as of two days ago. It means four out of their top six players are sidelined. Only Peković and Kirilineko are left, but I don't really think they're the types of guys who can carry the load. So, I'm expecting an easy win for Dallas.
Oh, and I just remembered, Roy is out too since he got injured. 😁
Minnesota is basically going to be playing with just 8 guys in tonight's game.

Philadelphia -3.5 vs Milwaukee 1
-The home team is hunting for their fourth straight win today after absolutely tearing it up on the road with a 3-0 sweep, where they held their opponents to under 82 points per game! Seriously, even without Andrew Bynum, Paul Richardson, and Tim Brown in the lineup, these guys look totally reborn because their bench is stepping up and doing the job perfectly. I’m seeing them cover by maybe 6 or 7 points tonight, especially since they always seem to handle this opponent just fine—they’ve grabbed 7 wins in their last 8 matchups, including three straight at home. For anyone feeling a bit more cautious, I’d say take the under 188.5, considering they’ve gone under in 10 of their last 11 meetings
. Lawson over 14.5
-He might be the team's main man, and let's be real, his play can be super inconsistent sometimes, but he clears this line all the time, especially when he's facing a squad that gives up about 104 points on average and against whom almost everyone else has been hitting the over. You also gotta factor in that Denver has won their last 6 games while putting up an insane average of 120 points per game
.
GS 107-101 9 3-10 0-3 3-6
Utah 104-84 9 4-12 1-4
Hou 93-87 21 6-16 3-4 0-4
Det 109-97 15 2-4 1-4 8-10
Mia 116-119 14 7-15
Orl 89-102 12 6-12 0-3
Phila 75-84 16 6-15 1-2 1-2

his recent performances

DeMar DeRozan over 17.5
-As long as Kyle Lowry is out, he and Andrea Bargnani are my top picks for the over because they're getting so many looks, which obviously bumps up the chances of clearing this number, particularly against the Utah Jazz who have been absolutely terrible on the road lately🤷. He’s been averaging around 13 shots with a 45% clip and gets to the free throw line constantly, so he should put up some solid numbers. In his last 5 games, he cleared this mark in 4 of them (Brook Lopez 25, Minnesota 22, Oklahoma City Thunder 8, Dallas 24, Philadelphia 19)
.

21w/17l

stormyseal9 said:I’m just hoping everyone managed to follow👍, pocketed their winnings, and can finally sit back and relax🙂,🙂

👍

As for me, I simply took the Oklahoma City Thunder under and paired it with LAL, then placed a single bet on LAL -9.5 at the other spread...
☕

stormyseal9 said:Philadelphia (-3.5) vs New Orleans 1
- The home team will be hunting for their fourth straight win today—following a 3-0 road sweep where they held opponents to under 82 points per game. Despite missing Andrew Bynum, Paul Richardson, and Tim Brown, they look revitalized because their bench depth is stepping up perfectly. I’m seeing a +6 or +7 margin here, especially since they consistently beat this opponent (7 wins in their last 8, including three straight at home). For the more cautious bettors, I’d suggest the under 188.5—they've gone under in 10 of their last 11 matchups.

That 81.7 defensive average for Philly over the last three games isn't particularly meaningful—mostly because two of those three games were against bottom-tier offenses. New Orleans ranks second to last, averaging just 88.2 points, and they play the slowest pace in the league—dead last in possessions per game. Plus, they faced Philly without their two top guys—Aaron Gordon and Anthony Davis—and without their solid rookie, Doc Rivers. It's hardly surprising they only managed 66 points against a Philly defense that's generally decent.

As for Toronto, they also struggled heading into their matchup with Philly; they were missing their clear best player from earlier this season, Kyle Lowry, who was routinely dropping 20 points a night. Besides, Toronto isn't exactly an offensive powerhouse—they sit 18th in the league, averaging about 94.7 points.

Philly only gave up 66 points in one of those three recent outings, which heavily skewed their defensive average downward; for context, Boston put up exactly 100 against them, and even Boston has been struggling with efficiency early this season.

Philly's defense is solid, but let's not overstate it.

In previous years, Milwaukee played a slow, grind-it-out style built on toughness and grit. But without Andrei Bogut, and with Monta Ellis and Ilyasova offering almost nothing defensively, it makes sense they've transitioned into a run-and-gun squad that puts up high numbers. Past head-to-head matchups don't really carry much weight here.

Atlanta Hawks under 97.5 points @ 1.85

The Hawks have definitely lost some steam lately; they looked great after picking up wins against the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Pacers, but then they stumbled against Miami and just got shut down by the Clippers last night. It felt like those teams just figured out how to neutralize Josh Smith, and that was really the turning point for them. Honestly, this squad relies way too heavily on the long ball—they’re basically top five in three-point attempts, yet they're sitting all the way down at 17th when it comes to actually making them. Their biggest headache right being the lack of trips to the charity stripe; they're pretty much second to last in the league there, averaging only 16.2 free throw attempts per game (which is a measly 13.2% FT/FGA), and their conversion rate is pretty rough at 66.7% (#29). It's tough to draw those fouls if you aren't aggressive enough getting into the paint, even though they rank 24th in field goal attempts. Now, while Portland hasn't exactly been a defensive powerhouse lately, they should have a pretty solid matchup here. LaMarcus Aldridge ought to be able to keep Al Horford in check, and Willie Batum might be able to contain a struggling Smith. Matthew should be able to handle Kyle Korver, who's really their only real threat coming off screens or in spot-up situations, and since Kemba Walker doesn't pose a huge threat to the Blazers, Damian Lillard should be able to manage him easily. If Atlanta wants to keep winning, they really need to lean on their defense; if they try to get into a track meet, I don't see them going very far. In their last outing at the Rose Garden, the Hawks were held to just 77 points, so I'm expecting maybe just a little bit more than that today. ☕

Nicholas Chase34 said:Atlanta under 97.5 points — $1.85.

The Atlanta Hawks are sliding. After picking up wins against the Thunder and the Pacers, they just dropped games to Miami and the Clippers—back-to-back. It’s becoming clear that once teams figure out how to neutralize Josh Smith, the wheels come off. Their biggest issue? They rely far too heavily on the three-pointer. They rank fourth in attempts, yet only manage to convert 17 per game. That lack of interior presence is glaring. They aren't getting to the line—they're currently sitting near the bottom of the league with just 16.2 free throw attempts per game (13.2% FT/FGA), paired with a dismal 66.7% conversion rate (#29). It’s hard to draw contact when you aren't attacking the rim, and right now, they're only 24th in field goal attempts at the hoop. Portland isn't exactly an elite defensive unit, but they have a favorable matchup here. Aldridge should be able to contain Al Horford, and Batum can likely keep a struggling Smith in check. Matthews is well-equipped to handle Korver—who remains their only real threat from spot-ups or off-screens—while Teague won't pose much of a problem for the Blazers; Lillard should handle him easily. If Atlanta wants to stay relevant, they have to win through defense. If they try to play in high-speed shootouts, they aren't going anywhere. They were held to a measly 77 points during their last outing at the Rose Garden; I expect perhaps slightly more from them today. ☕

The bar is set relatively high—but even so, the Rockets are the only team this season that haven't managed to drop 100+ points on the Blazers.

Batum might be able to contain Smith—though I wouldn't bet the house on it. While Batum brings solid perimeter defense and athleticism to the table, Smith simply possesses more raw power. The only way the Hawks gain the upper hand is if Batum manages to get him into foul trouble; that’s a vulnerability Smith has shown plenty of times before.

Aldridge has a solid shot at shutting down Horford—but man, that guy has such a soft touch. His mid-range game is basically a specialty.
If I recall correctly, two seasons ago, he was the only big man shooting above .500 from beyond the arc.

While the offense is looking solid, I wasn't particularly impressed with Lillard's defensive effort—though Teague is putting up decent numbers for now.

The Blazers' bench is a complete disaster defensively—Jeffries, Pavlovic, Leonard, and the rest are just completely limp. I suspect Williams and Harris are going to be forced to pick up the slack.

I think Portland has the edge tonight—though I doubt they’ll be able to significantly limit the Hawks, even with that back-to-back schedule.
I’d probably set the line maybe 1–2 points lower—but honestly, I don't know—I'd just avoid that bet altogether. 😁

James Taylor3 said:The line feels pretty high, but honestly, the only team besides the Rockets that hasn't absolutely scorched the Blazers for 100+ points this season is... well, nobody else.

Batum might be able to keep Smith in check, though I’m not totally sold on that idea because even if Batum plays solid and stays athletic, Smith just brings a whole different level of raw power to the table. The only way this works is if Batum gets him into foul trouble, which Smith isn't exactly shy about getting into, so if that happens, the Hawks have the edge.

Aldridge should have a decent shot at shutting down Horford, but man, you can't forget that Horford has such a soft touch and those mid-range jumpers are basically his bread and butter.
If I remember correctly, a couple of seasons back, he was the only big man out there consistently shooting better than 50% from outside the paint.

Switching gears to the offense, Lillard hasn't really impressed me with his defensive effort, and Teague has been putting up some pretty solid numbers lately.

The Blazers' bench is looking pretty porous on the defensive end; guys like Jeffries, Pavlovic, Leonard, and the rest seem a bit sluggish, and I wouldn't be surprised if Williams and Harris decide to capitalize on that weakness.

In my book, Portland has the upper hand to pull off the win tonight, though I doubt they'll be able to truly stifle the Hawks, especially since they were out on the court just last night too.
I’d probably set the line maybe one or two points lower, but even then, I don't know—I think I'll just steer clear of this bet entirely. 😁

You really think the Blazers have the edge? 🙂

It's true, the Blazers haven't shown anything impressive defensively so far, but eventually, they're going to have to step it up and dig deep.

I passed on this parlay because the margin felt a little too thin for my liking; personally, I think it should be 2-3 points lower to be ideal. I highly doubt the Hawks can clear this without getting a ton of free throws, unless they're hitting shots at an insane clip, which seems unlikely when you're playing on the tail end of a back-to-back. 🤷

Nicholas Chase34 said:You mean the Trail Blazers have the edge? 🙂

Yeah, I was referring to the Trail Blazers. 😁

Nicholas Chase34 said:True—the Trail Blazers haven't shown much in defense yet, but eventually they'll have to step up.

I went with this pair because the margin felt a bit too wide for my liking—personally, I think it should be 2-3 points lower to be ideal. I doubt the Hawks can cover without getting plenty of free throws, unless they shoot exceptionally well, which seems unlikely during a back-to-back. 🤷

I don't feel like digging through stats right now, but from what I've seen in these early season games, it looks like the Trail Blazers pick up a lot of fouls—they get into foul trouble pretty quickly.

It surprised me when you mentioned that Atlanta isn't drawing many free throws, considering they have Lou Williams, Smith, and even Horford on the roster.

Sure, that back-to-back could be a factor against the over, but I don't know—I don't trust that Portland-esque defense one bit. 😁

Nikola Peković over 14.5 @ 1.85 HL 7/10 units

With the Timberwolves dealing with this massive string of injuries (Barea, Roy, Rubio, Budinger, Love), I guess Peković and Kirilenko are basically the only offensive options left. They’re heading to Dallas today, and honestly, the Mavericks' interior defense hasn't been all that dominant early on. A few teams have already jumped them, so maybe Peković has enough gas in the tank to carry the load offensively. He’s seen more minutes lately against the Pacers and Bulls, and he’s cleared this line in every single road game this season.

I find it quite baffling that nobody seems to be addressing why Chicago is somehow being favored over Boston tonight. In my view, taking those +2.5 points on Boston represents incredible value, especially when you consider that the Bulls are playing without Kirk Hinrich (and, naturally, Derrick Rose). This means Nata is going to have to step up and log some heavy minutes, primarily because Brandon Teague hasn't really found his footing yet and wasn't even supposed to see the floor this season.

While Boston had a rough start to the season, they’ve finally begun to play with some actual cohesion under this new roster, though I remain somewhat cautious about their long-term consistency. Personally, I’m leaning toward the straight win, though taking the spread is definitely the safer bet.

Anyway, good luck to everyone watching tonight. 🙂