Soccer Betting Tips & Discussion

driftingbear35 said:Don't underestimate Ajax's second string.
That's my advice. 🙂

And why is that?
If you have more insight, please share. 🤷

DELIVERY - MATERSBURG.............. 2 2.50

Red Bull Salzburg—who just stepped up into the big leagues thanks to a massive helping hand from the federation—is facing off against a former top-tier side.
The home team is a total wildcard for everyone in the league right now, and honestly, you have to wonder how they’re going to hold their own at this level of competition.
As for Matersburg, based on what I’ve been digging up in the press and checking out on their official site, they are absolutely brimming with confidence after crushing it 5-1 in the cup to move forward... I actually caught a few of their preseason matches too, and man, they were playing sharp!
The coach is out there saying everyone is dialed in and hunting for wins in every single match, no matter where they're playing. From everything I can see, the visitors are a seasoned squad—they were practically just trading blows with Sturm Graz, Austria, and Salzburg—so I am really liking the odds on them against those Salzburg kids tonight...

New York Yankees - Rijeka 1 @2,70

Both teams are roughly on the same level right now, but since we're just starting the season, expect some inconsistency from both sides while they find their rhythm...

The atmosphere is going to be tense, as always with this coastal rivalry. The Yankees fans definitely haven't forgotten last year's officiating screw-ups, so motivation will be high, as usual..

I expect Rijeka to play defensively, waiting for the Yankees to slip up. However, I think the Yankees have better finishing and ball movement this season rather than just relying on raw dominance, so that defensive approach might not pay off for them...

Either way, it's an open game where Rijeka could easily beat themselves. Even if they go all-out on offense, it could easily backfire and hand the win to the Yankees...

New York Yankees - Rijeka 2 3,00

Man, Rijeka has been absolutely crushing it since preseason started. They look super sharp. The players seem physically ready to go full throttle for all 90 minutes, they've got depth in every single position, and the chemistry is just there. Today is their first real litmus test, though. Playing at Poljud Stadium, where Rijeka has basically played like they're at Kantrida Stadium for the last five years—and honestly, they’ve had better results against weaker squads than this one. The Yankees have put together a decent roster, but personally, I don't see even two guys from the Yankees' starting eleven who could crack Rijeka's starting lineup. Kek likes running a 4-2-3-1, using two strong holding midfielders and pushing those fullbacks way up the pitch. Their wingers are top-tier talent, too, and they do a lot of overlapping with the fullbacks, which is probably why so many of their goals come from those crosses. Then you've got Benko upfront, who's leading the league; he already dropped 5 goals in just 2 official matches this season. Even though Benko has scored 5 of their 8 total goals, Rijeka’s real strength is the guys playing supporting roles—they're great at finding pockets of space between the lines and they aren't afraid to take long shots. They're missing Sharbini and Cesarec, but even at maybe 70% strength, they cruised past Pula 3-0 and hammered Prestatyn Town 5-0. The Yankees are using young Mikanović and an unproven Jozonović at fullback, and I just don't see how they stop Rijeka's wide players. Still, I guess this game will be won or lost in the midfield. For the Yankees, about 90% of the play flows through Anđelković. If Rijeka can just cut off the supply to him, I don't see how the Yankees are going to threaten Vargić.

All three outcomes are possible here, I guess, but Rijeka just seems stronger, and Kek has coached them to perfection. Looking at their results over the last month, it's totally reasonable to hope Rijeka walks away from Poljud with all three points again.

Stupnik 4-0, Olimpija Ljubljana 4-0, Triglav 4-0, Ludogorets Razgrad 3-1, Celje champion 8-0, Kper 2-1, Pula 3-0, Prestatyn Town 5-0.

Thursday 2015

Europa League second leg preview

Aalborg BK-Dila Gora f2 @ 2.30

So, Aalborg actually pulled off a massive upset tonight by outplaying Copenhagen (who everyone basically expects to cruise through the league)—talk about a comeback! It looks like they finally managed to shake off that absolute disaster in Georgia and got their heads back in the game, both physically and mentally

Honestly, that 3-0 loss seems like it was purely down to the high altitude and that brutal heat—something those Danish guys just aren't used to handling. You could see them completely gas out in the second half, which is exactly how they let in those two goals

But hey, things look totally different back in Denmark. From what I can see, the talent gap is huge and heavily favors Aalborg. Dila is definitely going to park the bus—whether it's a tactical move or just pure instinct—so

I’m calling it now: a win by at least two goals is looking super likely. Even if Dila manages to hang on for a bit after going down 0-2, they’re probably just going to sit tight in their own half and refuse to take any risks moving forward

July 28th

New York Yankees 1 @ 2.60

I’m basically heading out to exhaust the Yankees—it's a massive trek to North Carolina (like, 30 hours on a bus?!) and they’re playing Thursday at 5:45 PM in that absolute furnace of heat. It’s gonna be hitting like 97 F there, and after the game, we gotta head back... man, that kind of travel is bound to take its toll!

To make matters worse, both Kouassi and Anđelković got banged up during today's game against the Seattle Mariners.

But honestly, the Yankees look solid. Once they gel all those new signings together, get some rest, and find that extra gear—especially since they're looking super motivated—they'll be dangerous. They looked incredibly fit too; they were totally dominating the field toward the end of the match against Portland.

It seems everything has gone quiet in here lately. 😉

Los Angeles FC vs. Folio
-I believe we have one of our more reliable bets on our hands here. Home win @ 1.30 SS.
Los Angeles FC will likely find the back of the net three times, which should be more than enough to secure the wager. Who knows if Folio might manage to sneak one past them and accidentally ruin a handicap? They’ll probably field some sort of rotated lineup, but regardless of who steps onto the pitch, they possess enough quality to put at least three goals in the bag. I suspect the over 2.5 market carries a lower coefficient than this, so I'd much rather take this specific type😳home win.

If anyone else has a solid insight to add to this so we can build up a collective opinion @2, please speak up. 🙂

Gerald Carter53 said:Man, it’s been dead in here lately! 😉

Los Angeles FC vs. Folio
—I honestly think one of the safest bets left is the away team score over @1.30.
LAFC will probably bag 3 goals, which should be plenty to cover the bet. Who knows if Folio might sneak one in and mess up a handicap? They'll likely field some kind of mixed roster, but whatever lineup they throw out, they're good enough to drop at least 3 on them. I feel like the over 2.5 has a lower multiplier than this, so I’m sticking with my pick: 😳away team score over.

If anyone else has a lock I can add to this to bump us up to @2, let me know! 🙂

Anyone got any locks? I'm feeling indecisive, what should I pick? 🤷

Since we're talking about other scores, you actually reminded me of Prestatyn vs. Rijeka, other @ 2.00

Rijeka should also be able to put three past them—it’s gonna be a nice, warm night there, maybe around 65°F. Now, I know Rijeka has that big matchup against LAFC this weekend, so they might rotate a lot of players. But hey, even the bench players would probably play harder just to prove themselves, right? It really just comes down to their motivation, and with the reserves coming in, they shouldn't lack anything.

Plus, Prestatyn started off in Rijeka playing super defensive, almost like they were hiding in a bunker, but now they've completely lost that vibe—they're playing way more open than they did at the start.

Pacos Ferreira - Newcastle 2 @ 2.35 Pinnacle 3/10

Following last season's historic run—finishing third in the top flight—Pacos has seen plenty of interest from wealthier clubs. It’s cost them dearly; they’ve already lost four or five key starters to decent sides like Sevilla, Malaga, or Benfica. A few more are expected to sign elsewhere any day now, which means they won't be available today.
As a result, Pacos has brought in a wave of new faces—most of whom are relatively unknown.
There's the inevitable issue of chemistry—it remains to be seen if this new group actually has the quality to compete.
To make matters worse, the manager who pulled off that miracle in Ferreir is gone. He's been replaced by the inexperienced Costinh, who still needs to prove he can translate his playing talent into coaching.
This is bound to be a long road for Pacos. Based on the data I've tracked, this is their first preseason friendly, whereas Newcastle is already heading into their third.

Newcastle is a solid Premier League side. They haven't had major movement in terms of transfers, suggesting a settled, cohesive squad—plus, their own site reports only two players are unavailable for today.
If they approach this with some seriousness, I think they should take it, despite the match being held in Portugal.
That said, it is just a preseason game—the stakes are low.

Zeljeznic-Viktoria plzeň (3:4) 1 @ 7,0

The odds on a decent Zeljeznic-Viktoria plzeň side are actually pretty high, so I guess I'll just put my money on them to win by one goal,
It’s going to be an absolutely electric atmosphere at the stadium because if Zeljeznic-Viktoria plzeň can just pull off a 1:0 win, they’re through to the next round. The fans are always going to bring that intense energy, and I imagine dr. Nel is going to lose his mind if they actually manage to pull this off!! 😁
They might just pull it off, provided they actually play the way they should, ☕

Seattle Sounders vs. Viktoria Plzeň — 2-1, 1.55 SS

It’s possible the Sounders aren't entirely out of this—but I’m convinced Plzeň is the superior side. Based on what those watching reported, Seattle missed three clear shots at the net... all of which went in. The Czechs started slow, but once they realized the game was slipping away, they hammered home three quick goals just to regain control. They also had a solid warm-up on Friday, blowing out Bohemians in a blowout win—I expect them to play with that same intensity here, making an upset virtually impossible...

Fernandes to score @ +100 DraftKings 3/10

DraftKings and FanDuel have created a massive gap in the odds for this matchup—FanDuel has him at -115—and since Fernandes is confirmed in the starting XI tonight, there's value here. He’ll be playing with plenty of freedom. Given that the Galaxy are expected to run riot against San Jose and potentially drop five or six goals, it stands to reason that Fernandes—who consistently finds his way into scoring positions this season—will get his piece of the action. 😁

Vitoria Guimaraes vs. St. Etienne | 2 @ 2.40 | DraftKings 2/10

Guimaraes is dealing with some key absences—including Soudani, who most of us know—and they haven't exactly bolstered the squad with much depth. They aren't exactly a powerhouse.
http://www.transfermarkt.de/en/vitor...rein_2420.html

On the other side, St. Etienne has been fairly active. They’ve moved some talent out, sure, but they've brought in solid reinforcements to compensate.
Since this is their final preseason friendly before they hit the UEFA qualifiers in a week, the manager has signaled a serious approach—expect a heavy lineup with plenty of players seeing the full 90 minutes.
http://www.asse.fr/index.php?page=detail_actu&id=11294 (Google Translate helps here)

The value on the away win is decent enough. I'll take a small position.

St. Louis City SC 2 @ 2.80 (Handicap 2 @ 6.00)

I honestly don't get why St. Louis is sitting there as the favorite here—even with the home-field advantage—because, frankly, they’ve been playing absolute garbage lately. I mean, six straight losses? A goal differential of 4 to 14? It’s been nearly two months since they’ve even sniffed a win. On the flip side, you've got Inter Miami, led by the legendary Forlan, who have been absolutely tearing it up in their recent stretch—four wins and a draw, with a solid 13 to 7 goal difference. They’ve only dropped one game in eight rounds. For me, this is a clear pick for the away side, and honestly, an underdog handicap might even be on the table.

Milsami-Shakhtyor under 1.85

The home side is sitting pretty with a result that works perfectly for them—even a boring old 0-0 draw gets them through to the next round... so why risk anything?
I haven't got a full read on their firepower, but they scraped a 1-0 win against Dudelange at home in the first qualifying round, and they managed just one goal over in Belarus. Honestly, I don't see them finding more than one goal tomorrow, even with the home crowd behind them.
As for the visitors, they play these low-scoring away games all the time—not exactly flashy or efficient, but hey, it works for them. They’ve only conceded five goals (two of which were from BATE) in their last 16 outings.
Looking at their last 10 matches, 9 of them ended with fewer than three goals total.
They aren't conceding much, they aren't scoring much, and the home team is going to be playing super cautious and defensive to protect their position... so once again, the under looks like the smart play here...

( [3,5]) Prestatyn - Rijeka UNDER 1.75

UEFA Europa League second qualifying round return legs. So, the home team absolutely crushed what might be the weakest squad in the whole tournament, winning 5-0 at their stadium. Those guys from Wales barely even crossed the midfield line, though they did snag one decent chance that the keeper saved. After that, it was basically just a one-sided blowout against some amateur side. I guess today’s game will look a little different, though. They had to play an away game in Split this past Sunday, and in three days, they’ve got a massive matchup against Dinamo Chicago. The coach decided to give the bench guys a shot, so out of the 14 players who suited up in that last road game, only one guy—Zlomislić—is actually starting. They're rolling out a 4-3-3, or maybe a 4-3-2-1, with three midfielders and three forwards, but honestly, it feels like this group probably hasn't even practiced together once. I mean, they'll probably win, but since they lack a real playmaker in the middle (and Močinić is still a bit green, I guess), I don't see them scoring more than two or three goals. A few guys like Benko, Knežević, Škarabot, and Tomečak are being rested, so they probably won't even come off the bench. Plus, Kvržić, Obi, and Alispahić are stuck without visas, Sharbini isn't registered for this round, Čulina is already on loan over at Spezia, and Cesarec isn't quite match-fit yet.

Mance - Boras, Datković, Lešković, Bertoša - Zlomislić, Močinić, Pokrivač - Tadić, Krstanović, Pilčić.

Prestatyn Town vs. FC Cincinnati — Away win at 1.80...

I have nothing much to add regarding this matchup since Alex Barrett3 already covered all the bases, though I find myself agreeing entirely with his assessment... still, the handicap odds look more appealing to me.

Sparta Prague to secure the win at 1.85... an interesting proposition for those watching the match tonight.

The first leg in Seattle ended in a 2:2 draw after Seattle Sounders held a commanding 2:0 lead. Meanwhile, the Sounders managed a convincing 4:1 away win against FC Tulsa during their opening match of the season. On Monday, Hacken suffered a 2:3 home defeat at the hands of third-place LAFC, extending their preseason losing streak to three matches... It seems to me that the Sounders possess the superior squad, and I expect them to secure a victory against Hacken despite that initial draw.

The odds on Utrecht to secure a home win against Differdange sit at 1.35... a rather uninspired proposition, wouldn't you agree?

The first leg concluded with a 2-1 result for Differdange. Given that Utrecht possesses significantly more quality than these Luxembourgish side, I anticipate they won't play it safe during the home leg... they will likely approach the match with much greater intensity to secure a decisive 2-0 or 3-0 victory.

The odds on an away win for the visitors at 1.70 seem rather... optimistic...

It was quite unexpected to see FC Cincinnati secure such a commanding 3-1 victory over Zilina in the first leg. While I anticipate that Cincinnati will successfully defend their lead, one might still expect a narrow win for Zilina in the return match...

Let's go with some picks from the old school today:

FC Milsami-Shak.Soligorsk (1:1) 2 @ 1.85

The Americans here—well, the visitors—are definitely the superior side. They really need to wash away the bitter taste left by how poorly the other clubs from their region have been performing lately. In their domestic league, they’re sitting four points ahead of a version of BATE that looks completely unrecognizable compared to last season. The home side is just your run-of-the-mill outfit that actually struggled against some semi-pro amateurs from Luxembourg in the first qualifying round. Plus, the visitors are right in the thick of their season and in peak competitive shape. A fun little trivia note: Shakhtar's keeper is James Taylor3 🙏.


FK Aktobe-IL Hodd (0:1) 1 @ 1.3

Aktobe, who usually dominate their league, suffered a shock loss to a second-tier Norwegian side that only made it this far by winning their cup. Honestly, I wouldn't even be surprised if the home team fails the handicap here—those guys from the north are about to walk straight into a 95 degree heatwave.

St.Johnstone-Rosenborg (1:0) 2 @ 1.90

Rosenborg dropped a surprising one at home, and despite having plenty of chances, they couldn't find the back of the net once. They're clearly the better side compared to your average Scottish club, so they ought to make up for those missed opportunities in the first leg.

StanL/KRRey/dng-KRReykjavik to score a goal @ 2.00

Standard pretty much settled the whole thing in the first match with a big win over in Iceland, so they'll likely head into this one feeling very relaxed. Reykjavik, being one of the top two teams in their country, definitely has enough quality to bag at least one goal—and at these odds? It’s almost too good to pass up.

07/28
St. Louis City vs. FC Cincinnati under 2.10

Look, during these early preseason matches, St. Louis looked completely lost—totally out of sync and just zero efficiency in their play. They were basically leaning entirely on one standout striker, who, by the way, probably isn't even technically on the roster anymore after yesterday...
When they run into teams that sit back and play defense, it’s a total disaster. The squad is still reeling from that knockout loss against Nashville SC—their focus is shot and their finishing is just pathetic. You're basically handing goals to the other team while you're busy smashing the ball against the crossbar, the post, and then missing an easy penalty...

Those are massive holes in this lineup. Given how things are looking, St. Louis is going to struggle to find the back of the net because, quite frankly, they don't have many players right now who actually pose a threat in the final third.

On the flip side, the defense seems like the one decent part of this squad—though, let's be real, you can never truly trust what the goalie is going to pull off—so playing at home, they shouldn't be conceding any stupid goals.

Cincinnati is kind of a wildcard here, pretty much your average mid-tier side, and since both teams have been grinding through their preseason schedule they should be feeling some fatigue—especially the visitors after all that travel...
I’m not expecting a scoring clinic or anything close to it from them, nor am I expecting much in terms of pace or intensity...
The odds look solid enough, so I'm taking it.

St. Louis City vs. Memphis SC 1 1.35

The only lock this weekend... if anything actually is a "lock" anymore because let's face it, there's zero certainty in this league... Memphis is basically a sinking ship right now—top candidate for relegation since they don't even have a coaching staff or actual players ready to go—while St. Louis is sitting pretty as one of the favorites for the top of the table.
Look, it might be a grind 🤷, but I seriously doubt the home side walks away without a win... I mean, if all 11 guys on the visiting squad are just parked in front of their own goal, the home team is bound to find a gap at least once.

07/29.
Atlanta United vs. D.C. United 2 3.05
DNB 2.22
I honestly think the oddsmakers have this one totally backwards.
D.C. United used to be a massive institution, an absolute powerhouse, but right now? They’re nowhere near that level. This season is going to be a brutal, unpredictable mess for them.

Atlanta, on the other hand, handled a tough away game against a gritty side in the opening round, and before that, they actually snatched the Supporters' Shield.
They were firing on all cylinders last half-season, and from what I've seen, they haven't missed a beat in the new campaign. They could genuinely be the team to beat.
The whole city is buzzing, the roster stayed mostly intact from last year, and as things stand, they're definitely in the hunt to get back into continental competition.
Even when they got bumped out of the preseason tournament, they played better than anyone expected in the second leg and fought back for a draw.

D.C. United is a huge club that was practically on life support a while back, but somehow they survived.
But man, they lost everything... missed out on playoffs, and every single player with any real talent or market value just walked out the door—we're talking 18 players gone.
Now they're filling the spots with nobodies and guys who spent their careers bouncing around minor league squads or switching teams every single season... the club is trying to stabilize, sure, but they aren't going to be title contenders anytime soon.
Atlanta can walk away with the whole bag here, and with these odds, it's a steal.

08/01.
FC Cincinnati vs. Columbus Crew 2 1.85

The home side basically lucked their way into this spot, and I honestly don't see how they pose any threat to the favorites coming into town. Their ceiling is just too low. 🤷
They're that classic type of team that plays "park the bus" for all 90 minutes, praying for a lucky counter-attack.
I just don't know how many chances they actually need to score, because against their last opponent, they only scored because of some bizarre, laughable mistakes by the opposing keeper... otherwise, they probably wouldn't have even touched the back of the net...

Columbus absolutely dismantled their opponents last season—a side that isn't even much weaker than Cincinnati—winning 4-2 away and then 7-0 back home.
In a fair world, the away win shouldn't be priced higher than 1.50, so this 1.85 is pure value in my book... I'm taking it without a second thought.