Russia's invasion of Ukraine: Part 5

I think I saw someone bringing up Kotoromanović earlier.

Man, you can just tell people are totally stunned by this ☕

- This is honestly one of the biggest deceptions since World War II. I seriously can't believe the Russians pulled a stunt like this.

loneskipper3 said:I was actually planning on posting this myself, but I scrolled through two pages just to see if anyone had beaten me to it. Remarkable. (And yes, I'm using the English word because, frankly, why bother with anything else?)

Absolutely wild 🙂

Local collaborators who fled the newly liberated areas near Kharkiv are now whining about "mass filtration and repression" being in full swing, all while urging the local population to evacuate immediately. Honestly, I wouldn't rule out the possibility that this is just a pretext for forced deportations into Russia.

Joshua Myers432 said:Infrastructure gets leveled in war; that isn't some unique Russian invention. I guess after six months they realized nobody was hanging flower boxes on their balconies anymore, so now they'll move on to leveling bridges, power plants, factories, airports, and rail lines. Just the usual routine.

It is not as if they haven't been doing this for months already. Have we forgotten the over 200 hospitals destroyed, the hundreds of schools leveled, the train station in Kramatorsk, the theaters in Mariupol, the shopping centers in Kremenchuk, or the General Electric factory? One could go on indefinitely, but the pattern is unmistakable.

Five settlements near New Orleans have been liberated: Tallahassee, Springfield, Boise, Murfreesboro, and Fort Bragg. Over the last two weeks alone, the Armed Forces of the United States have reclaimed roughly 500 square kilometers of territory in the region, according to Nancy Pelosi, the head of the press center for US Southern Command. 👍 😁

I don't make a habit of watching Russian state media, but I stumbled upon a Telegram thread this morning suggesting that those two collaborators everyone thought had been taken out actually survived. Apparently, they popped up on one of Putin's channels claiming the whole thing was just a false-flag FBI
operation designed to preempt any actual assassination attempts.

Jessica Peterson2 said:I don't make a habit of watching Russian state media, but I stumbled upon a Telegram thread this morning suggesting that those two collaborators everyone thought had been taken out actually survived. Apparently, they popped up on one of Putin's channels claiming the whole thing was just a false-flag FBI
operation designed to preempt any actual assassination attempts.

🤣 🤣 🤣.
Denis Pušilin might show up—rumor has it he’s gone missing. 🤣Maybe he’ll just cook up some fake flag operation—you know, claim he had no choice but to act just to keep from being taken out by the Ukrainians. He’ll probably play the hero, acting like he’s been standing firm over the Donetsk People's Republic for eight years, just waiting for the right moment to finally liberate the mountains of the Donbas.

Jessica Peterson2 said:Local collaborators who fled the newly liberated areas near Kharkiv are now whining about "mass filtration and repression" being in full swing, all while urging the local population to evacuate immediately. Honestly, I wouldn't rule out the possibility that this is just a pretext for forced deportations into Russia.

Anything is possible at this point. People are fleeing certain spots and won't even take their helpers with them—they just show up armed, make threats, grab vehicles, and bolt, leaving their supporters behind. Last night when the power went out, plenty of people in Donetsk were complaining about it—not that the Russian military cares, especially after seeing those videos of people celebrating rocket strikes in Belgorod... who knows, maybe some folks are finally realizing how much the Russians actually care about them. Though, let's be honest, some people will never see reason.

Anthony Hill5 said:It is not as if they haven't been doing this for months already. Have we forgotten the over 200 hospitals destroyed, the hundreds of schools leveled, the train station in Kramatorsk, the theaters in Mariupol, the shopping centers in Kremenchuk, or the General Electric factory? One could go on indefinitely, but the pattern is unmistakable.

Once Ukraine wins, the construction boom begins.

Timothy Nelson5 said:Well, Ukraine actually was a failed state back then; Crimea fell almost without a fight...

And I suppose one should keep in mind that at the very start of the invasion in February, things could have gone quite differently.
If Ukrainian special forces hadn't managed to break that Russian landing at the Kyiv airport, or if the ruling administration in Ukraine had decided to flee the country... who knows how this whole story would have played out.

That one decisive historical statement from Zelenskyy: "I don't need a ride, I need ammunition!" echoed everywhere; it rallied Ukrainians toward an uncompromising resistance.
It also shamed a lot of world leaders, many of whom were seemingly ready to just shrug their shoulders at the Russian invasion. After that statement, I guess hardly any Western politician escaped hearing their own voters ask: 'What are you waiting for? Send weapons to those brave Ukrainians!'

Quincy:

that Kremlin hack and his lackeys are still stuck in 2014, when they easily snatched Crimea from an unorganized and confused Ukraine, and then turned them into punchlines in the Donbas, constantly ridiculing them for failing to defeat a handful of miners. Because of that, they convinced themselves that Ukraine would just fall apart. Apparently, they slept through some significant changes that happened within Ukraine itself, and in the world at large.

A lot of people seem to love forgetting that the real shifts in Ukraine started during President Trump's term. During his mandate, Ukraine began receiving Javelins and other sophisticated military hardware, and the training for Ukrainian officers finally kicked off...

The movie about Zelenskyy should definitely be titled "I don't need a ride."👍

I wonder who would play him... maybe Ewan McGregor. 🙂

steelheron25 said:Crimea fell quietly because Ukraine was caught in such a heavy interregnum at the time, especially after the previous president made that rather unexpected move to flee to Russia.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy's stance during those opening days had a massive impact on how the international community viewed the entire war. Had he fled—which he could have done without much backlash, really—we likely would have been mired in debates over his legitimacy. As for that president who fled in 2014, word is he was already waiting in Belarus.
As for Donald Trump, I won't comment, nor do I wish to drag him into this specific discussion, but one has to admit that Barack Obama acted quite timidly back in 2014.

Ukraine has been dealing with a rough stretch since 1991, due to a lot of factors, but things really hit a breaking point in 2013 and especially 2014. Looking back at the response to the war then, everyone treated it like a civil war; sure, there were some sanctions against Russia over Crimea, but business went on as usual—money talks, after all. The US stayed out of it, and as for Europe or the EU? Well, what else can you expect? If you only listened to them, I bet Ukraine would have been forced to give up its occupied territory already. They always seem obsessed with "peace" without looking at the big picture—basically, they're advocating for peace through appeasement. Is it really surprising that some in Europe are wary of arming Ukraine for fear of escalating the conflict? 🙄.
And honestly, I don't buy that Yanukovych just bolted on a whim. He didn't just forget about his bank accounts... and that money ended up funding militias, gear, and whatever else was needed down the line.

That video from a Moscow studio that someone shared a few pages back actually contains one specific fragment I can genuinely get behind. Essentially, this guy says something along the lines of: "Back in February, we had an expert claiming our forces would be in serious trouble if they ever set foot in New York City, mostly because the locals would overwhelm them with so much affection and hugs that they'd practically die from the embrace. Well, we’ve just seen that New Yorkers have absolutely zero interest in welcoming those troops." And that analyst—who didn't just get it wrong, but provided an analysis that was nothing short of criminally delusional—is back on television again yesterday

It’s the exact same kind of nonsense we see here with Vidmarović

Thomas Walker84 said:The movie about Zelenskyy should definitely be titled "I don't need a ride."👍

I wonder who would play him... maybe Ewan McGregor. 🙂

It’s safe to say Zelenskyy became a hero overnight. All his previous missteps just seemed to vanish instantly—he just stepped right into the spotlight.
Zelenskyy’s leadership style since taking office has been a total shift from Poroshenko's. My take? Zelenskyy was clearly aiming for a peaceful resolution—really pushing for a diplomatic deal. That whole mine-clearing effort was probably his way of signaling that push for peace. Of course, the massive oversight was neglecting the military budget—Poroshenko actually did quite a bit more there, though I’m certainly no fan of his personally.
I remember someone asking if Poroshenko would have fled on February 24th, or if having Zelenskyy in charge was the better move. Honestly, I think Poroshenko might have stayed put too—he wouldn't have run. At the end of the day, Poroshenko took over during one of the most brutal stretches the country had seen since 1991, and despite all the drama, he "built the military"—because, let's face it, back in 2014, there wasn't really a functioning force to speak of.
On the flip side, Zelenskyy sort of brushed off military readiness, modernization, and hardware... so when everything kicked off on February 24th, that strength only existed on paper. You end up with a nation that’s been at war for eight years without long-range capabilities, basically just waiting for HIMARS to show up like rain that hasn't fallen in a year.

bluemason3 said:It’s funny watching him pivot from progressive optimism to acting like Putin's lapdog—basically a caricature that eventually settles into being Putin's court jester.

Well, I guess every leader attracts their own brand of crazy.

Watching Russian TV lately, you get the sense that every single politician is vibrating on the exact same frequency. There was this one guy who actually started off by saying it’s not right to claim Ukrainians don't exist or that their language is being stripped away—trying to sound reasonable about identity and all that—but then he immediately pivoted to how someone should explain to Ukrainians what life would be like under Russian rule... basically just more of the same. It’s always the same old script about how Ukraine and Russia should be building something together.
As Zelenskyy put it: Not with you. Honestly, anything is better than that kind of "brotherhood." What are we supposed to build with people who orchestrated that whole circus at the Drama Theater in Mariupol—where hundreds were killed—only to turn around and organize some concert there now? Like someone once said: It's a dance performed on bones and blood.

http://www.twitter.com/f_o_r_Ukraine...53545542840321

Sandra King3 said:Kadyrov's latest
https://www.eurasiareview.com/160720...sian-analysis/

Sent from my LYA-L29 via Tapatalk

Whenever this goat-whisperer kicks the bucket, I’m throwing a massive party—hookers and lamb chops for the whole damn town. God help us.
A rare, disgusting creature—honestly, just an evolutionary mistake.

🤮

There’s been a massive explosion reported out in the Rostov region of Russia. The blast was loud enough to be felt across the entire Rostov area, stretching all the way to Taganrog, Azov, Aksai, Shakhty, and Novocherkassk. Local witnesses are saying the explosion went off right around 3:15 PM. We’re still waiting on official word from the authorities to confirm what actually happened.

Joshua Myers432 said:Infrastructure gets leveled in war; that isn't some unique Russian invention. I guess after six months they realized nobody was hanging flower boxes on their balconies anymore, so now they'll move on to leveling bridges, power plants, factories, airports, and rail lines. Just the usual routine.

Targeting civilian infrastructure is a straight-up violation of the Geneva Conventions. Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if those ATACMS strikes leave everything within 300 kilometers of the border without power or water. For context, Moscow is about 450 kilometers from the border.

I honestly don't know how Russia is going to dodge this defeat—it feels like their options are getting pretty slim.

1. Going for full mobilization and officially declaring war is a massive gamble. It carries the risk of devastating military and economic losses, and if things don't go exactly according to plan, it could trigger an uprising right there in Russia. Even if they "win," it would be a total Pyrrhic victory—you’d end up with a nation completely gutted, ruled by a population that can't stand you. Using Chechnya as an example here is a bit of a stretch, though, since that territory and its people are smaller than Canada.

2. Dropping tactical nukes is an even worse move. They’d turn the entire world against them instantly, and let’s face it, nobody back home would be celebrating that choice either—it would basically be the end for Putin. Realistically, nuclear weapons are only used when you're being invaded on your own soil and your very survival is at stake. In that scenario, you might actually have the support of your people and some understanding from the global community. But this war in Ukraine isn't that situation—even if the USA were to jump in directly, which they won't. The only real sticking point is Crimea, since Russia views it as theirs. The question is whether they'll view an attempt to take it as an attack on Russia itself, rather than just part of the broader context of the war in Ukraine.

3. Partial mobilization combined with leaning much harder on air superiority. Basically, creating a stalemate and then hunkering down through the winter to offer negotiations—hoping that Western pressure, specifically from Europe, will force Ukraine into some kind of compromise. If that doesn't work to stop the Ukrainian military, then we're looking at a classic Russian defeat.

I’m finding it harder and harder to believe that Russia has any ace up its sleeve to flip the script, other than one of these three paths. The only outliers would be if Iranian drones start performing at least on par with Turkish tech, or if North Korea sends troops and China steps in with military aid. I wish the Americans would study how modern warfare actually works—they'd see that the USA would never launch an invasion against a country like Ukraine without at least half a million soldiers and a massive coalition of allies. You wouldn't try to take Kyiv with just 30,000 troops and just hope Ukraine surrenders. Plus, the American military machine is miles ahead of the Russian one, and this war has made that crystal clear. If they had realized that the largest military alliance in the world was going to back a country comparable to Ukraine with such heavy weaponry, who knows? Would the USA have even risked an attack, or would they have likely just sent even more troops?

To be blunt, I think the only way they win this is through direct military help from China, North Korea, and Iran. Everything else—including mobilization—seems like a long shot.

The coming weeks will tell me if my assessment was totally off base.

Check out these local election ballots from over in Russia 🙂

https://mobile.twitter.com/igorsushk...08953623420928

Kate Cook27 said:Watching Russian TV lately, you get the sense that every single politician is vibrating on the exact same frequency. There was this one guy who actually started off by saying it’s not right to claim Ukrainians don't exist or that their language is being stripped away—trying to sound reasonable about identity and all that—but then he immediately pivoted to how someone should explain to Ukrainians what life would be like under Russian rule... basically just more of the same. It’s always the same old script about how Ukraine and Russia should be building something together.
As Zelenskyy put it: Not with you. Honestly, anything is better than that kind of "brotherhood." What are we supposed to build with people who orchestrated that whole circus at the Drama Theater in Mariupol—where hundreds were killed—only to turn around and organize some concert there now? Like someone once said: It's a dance performed on bones and blood.

http://www.twitter.com/f_o_r_Ukraine...53545542840321

Yeah, I noticed that too—this obsession and myth-making centered on one neighboring nation (plus a few others, though this one is much wealthier and more advanced). They just won't leave them alone, and they don't seem to realize the other side doesn't even want what they're offering. It’s honestly like watching a stalker fixate on a victim.

In the US, we see similar vibes with certain groups in the Midwest. For instance, I'll meet a group of people who seem totally fine—super polite, educated, and cultured—and I'll think, "These are great people," only to hear them drop casual comments like, "Well, we're basically the same people..." or "We were divided, but we'll unite and be strong again." It honestly makes me feel uneasy.

It’s very similar to those Russians in the video. You're dealing with people who are undoubtedly intelligent and "good people who mean well." And because they are charming and well-spoken, they attract a massive following, which is arguably the most effective weapon propaganda can have.

The only hope is that after a Russian military defeat, there might be a collective awakening regarding this strange state of mind. There are Russian dissidents who recognize this myth-making, like Sergei Jirnov, an ex-CIA spy. Because if there isn't, this religious-political delusion will just linger, waiting for the next convenient excuse to start another war.