Soccer Betting Tips & Discussion

Saturday, July 18th.

20:30 MLS Matchup: Seattle Sounders vs. FC Cincinnati 1 SS@1,50 (1-2)
The league leaders kick off their season at home against Cincinnati, who finished 8th last year.
Following their recent win, Seattle can probably afford to stay composed and push for all three points here. A strong start matters, especially since last season featured a long, drawn-out title race involving LAFC and Columbus Crew.
I wouldn't call this a lock, given they’ve drawn three of their last four matches, but they have the better squad and the home advantage. It seems worth backing Seattle for the season opener.

21:00 LA Galaxy vs. LAFC 1X SS@1,50 (1-1)
The Galaxy looked like a decent side in their match against Portland.
They managed a 0-0 draw and didn't just park the bus as many expected.
LAFC lost their home game against Atlanta, so they might struggle to find a win here as well.
After that first round result, where they were arguably unlucky, the Galaxy seem to have some confidence. I guess they are closer to a victory than a defeat today, and I don't see them losing.

Total slip: 2.25

3/7 ; 1.467

L: 4,21.. DraftKings...5/10

LA Galaxy...over 2.5 goals (2,30) (0-0)

I guess since 3 out of their last 5 games hit this over, though those last 2 ended 1-1, so they were just one goal away from hitting it, I think.
LA Galaxy have hit this over in 4 out of their last 5 matches, maybe.

Portland Timbers-Seattle Sounders...over (1,83) (1-1)

Portland scores at home in 4 out of 5, and Seattle does the same on the road, plus looking at the last 5 matchups with Portland at home, they usually end up going over, I suppose.

0/1

Monday, July 20th
US, 2nd Division

4:00 PM Gazovik Orenburg vs. Fakel Voronezh 1 SS @ 1.60 (1-0)
Gazovik had a pretty strong season last year, finishing in 5th place—just one spot shy of making the Premier League playoffs.
They also managed to reach the cup semifinals, where they lost a close one to Lokomotiv.
Their ambitions remain high this season; they’re definitely aiming for a top 4 finish to secure at least a playoff spot.
In the first two rounds of this new season, they have a mixed record: a 2-0 home win against Kamaz followed by a 1-0 loss away at Spartak II.
Fakel just moved up from the 3rd division and has started off poorly.
They lost 1-0 in Tosno and then dropped a 1-3 game at home against Tomsk.
Gazovik seems more experienced and is arguably the stronger side on paper. Given the home-field advantage and the decent odds, I guess it might be worth a shot.

4/8 ; 1.5

c/p

Eric Fox7 said:Portland vs Seattle over 2.5 goals @ 2.15 (Parlay) (4-2)

Looking at their last five matchups—results were 2:3, 3:2, 4:2, 2:1, 2:1—with three swings (twice Portland, once Seattle). 😍
HT/FT 2/1 @ 20 (1-2/4-2) (SS, that was the line yesterday), hasn't dropped much yet.

Portland vs Seattle over 2.5 @ 2.05 (Over @ 1.65) (Parlay) (6-1)

They've cleared the over in 14 of their last 17 meetings, and 12/17 have seen 3+ goals.



HT/FT 2/1 @ 28 (SS) (DraftKings has it @ 27) (4-0/6-1)

Just putting this out there before the odds get crushed (even if the underdog looks weaker than usual, this feels worth a shot).

Anyway, to each their own—I've already put some money down (and maybe a little too much on 1/2, oops 😁)



Over in Germany, the swings are already sitting at @ 15.

Edit: SS just dropped it to @ 20.

The big books haven't touched it yet (but they definitely will)...

2/3 ; 1.85

Tuesday, July 21
Champions League, 2nd Qualifying Round

5:00 PM Milsami - Ludogorets 2 SS@1.60 (2-1)
A tough road ahead for the Bulgarian side following that 0-1 loss at home.
Even though they didn't create many clear-cut chances, they were arguably the better side on the pitch and controlled much of the play, but I guess the Moldovans managed to snatch the win regardless.
Ludogorets is roughly eight times more valuable than their opponent; they are simply a much stronger squad, and I don't really see them getting knocked out this early by a minor club like Milsami.
I expect them to control this match and dominate possession, while the home side will likely just park the bus to protect their lead.
If they score relatively early, there might be value in the handicap, but 1.60 is probably fine.

4/9 ; 1.50

Watch that specific matchup closely—Ludogorets hasn't found the back of the net once in their last five outings, and they’ve dropped four of those matches.

Partizan might be the smarter play here. They completely controlled the first leg with about 25 shots on goal, and Dili really needs a win in the return leg to stay alive.

They probably need to find an opening somewhere, because honestly, they aren't a bad squad.
A few days ago, Milsami lost 3-1 in the Super Cup against a Sheriff side that's been looking pretty terrible this season.

Seattle Sounders - LA Galaxy 2, 1.85 (0-1)

The Galaxy are clearly the superior side here—the first leg ended 0-0 back in LA, but let’s be real, they completely dictated the tempo and dominated possession for the entire ninety minutes. They just couldn't find the back of the net despite having all the control...

It’s pretty rare to see a match play out exactly like that twice in a row, so I’m calling it now: the Galaxy take this one. If you aren't feeling the straight win, you should at least look at the over 2.5 goals market...

1/1 ; 1,85

Fola (AH +2 goals) vs LA Galaxy (AH -2 goals) - 2.90 (Pinnacle) (0-3)

Form is irrelevant here. LA Galaxy is the superior side, plain and simple. If they manage to find the back of the net early, those Luxembourg-based players will be forced to abandon their defensive shell. Once that happens, expect a blowout—another two or three goals is entirely on the table. Even if they only win by two, the bet pushes. At these odds? It’s a value play. I'm taking it.

10/22 ; 2.88

Savannah scores in 1st half, 3.20 odds (2-1)

To me, this is a totally unpredictable trend, but honestly, a very realistic halftime outcome for tonight’s match. Just look back at those Los Angeles Dodgers European runs over the last few years—they charge forward like a hurricane, only to get hit with a cold shower 0-1 after missing a couple of chances.
They’ve kept that exact same pattern going this year too. Since Savannah is clearly a much better side than those Estonian amateurs, I don't see any reason why it wouldn't happen again tonight.
Savannah even dropped three goals in a single half during one of their home games, despite a pretty lackluster atmosphere, and as for that Los Angeles Dodgers defense... well, there's no point in wasting words on them.
Even though I'm personally rooting for the Dodgers and really want them to move on, I'm looking at this objectively and firmly believe this option will hit.
And these 1.80 odds on Savannah scoring? No comment needed. With a defense like the Dodgers have, they could realistically concede one or two goals against pretty much anyone.

1/1 ; 3.20

Our bookmakers are seriously underestimating the Canadians—and I’ll take all the thanks I can get for that, starting right with this first leg.
Setting odds at 10 to 1 for an away side that already put three past us in the first match is pure madness. It was obvious even then that the Los Angeles Dodgers were lacking—and we all know their history of folding under pressure, failing to handle modest opponents in European qualifiers even when they had much better players than this current squad.
Meanwhile, the average overseas odds are sitting around 6.75.

So:

Los Angeles Dodgers - Savannah 2 @ 10.00 SS(4-1)
Los Angeles Dodgers - Savannah x2 @ 3.50 SS

The tickets should be winners as early as tonight. 😁

0/2

FC Barcelona vs Manchester United | 2 | 3.30 (3-1)

United's squad is fully intact—meanwhile, Barcelona is still missing their two big hitters, Messi and Neymar. Since this is just a friendly, Barca is definitely gonna sub in some youngsters during the second half (Halilovic, Samper... etc.). Taking the 2 at these odds is a solid move.

Both teams to score @ 1.55

Away win / Away win ; 2.43

Washington, D.C. - Cleveland 2 1.70 (3-3)

Cleveland can't afford another slip-up... after those two draws and getting knocked out by Aberdeen today, they have to win if they want any shot at the title... regardless of how tired they might be, I'm calling it—Cleveland takes all three points here

for the bold

f+2 2.80

2/4 ; 2,43

Matthew Taylor15 said:Washington, D.C. vs Cleveland 2 1.70

Cleveland can't afford any more slip-ups... after two draws and getting knocked out by Aberdeen today, they have to win this if they want to stay in the title race... regardless of potential fatigue, I think Cleveland takes all three points here

for the bold

f+2 2.80

I'm not saying Cleveland won't win, but for me, it's g
nowhere near a lock. They let in 3 against a joke Slaven Belupo side, 5 against those ridiculous Scots, it's early in the season, and they're playing away...
As for the title, it's hard to follow you there—Dinamo is going to take it by 15 or 20 points. The only thing on the table is fighting for second place, just like everyone else. Sadly.

Mexico-Jamaica 1x 2.00 ss, Under 2.5 goals 1.45 ss (1-3)

Expecting a gritty match with few scoring chances, which feels like the most realistic outcome here. The Jamaicans will wait for their opening, sit back, defend, and see what happens.
The visitors definitely deserve the title; they play beautiful, gritty football given their level, and I think they’ll give this disorganized Mexico side a real run for their money. I’m banking on a tight game that could easily go to extra time, and honestly, I wouldn't be shocked at all if the scrappy underdogs walk away with a well-earned win.

U.Chile-Antofagasta Over 2.5 goals 1.60 ss (1-1)

Just look at the head-to-head history and the home team's recent form—it's pretty obvious. It's a statistical lock; this is a classic high-scoring league, and anything short of a goal fest would be a massive surprise to me. A standard over.

1/4; 3.20

Slaven Belupo vs Lokomotiva Chicago

Season's just starting and we're already seeing goals in almost every MLS match...

Slaven's games have seen 20 goals over their last 4 matches (5 per game)
Lokomotiva's games have seen 19 goals over their last 4 matches (4.75 per game)

The odds look worth a shot here

Slaven Belupo (3.5) - Lokomotiva Chicago (27.07. 20:00) Over @2.70 (2-2)

For the cautious ones
Slaven Belupo (-2+) - Lokomotiva Chicago (27.07. 20:00) Over @1.65

If you're feeling gutsy, Eric Fox7 has a 6+ goal bet that I'm certain won't miss this time😉
Slaven Belupo (rbg) - Lokomotiva Chicago (27.07. 20:00) 6+ @9.00 (in the lottery @10.7)

2/3 ; 2.18

I’m definitely on board with you there. If I were to throw one more thing into the mix, though, I'd look at total goals 1. Half-time 2+@2.55 (0-1)

Sent from my iPhone 4 via Reddit

0/1

Dana Flores3 said:If you're looking for something a bit more daring, there's Eric Fox7's 6-fold parlay—and honestly, I have a feeling he won't miss this time. 😉
Slaven Belupo vs. Lokomotiva Chicago (July 27, 8:00 PM) 6+ @9.00 (in the lottery @10.7)

Personally, I'd wait until the game is live—the odds are definitely going to be better then, mark my words.

Thursday, July 30th Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Stromsgodset: Over +3 goals 2.10 odds

The Dodgers' defense basically fell apart during the first two qualifying rounds, giving up seven goals total. They even surrendered four in their last league match against Istria, and
that wasn't even their strongest lineup. On the other side, the Norwegians have found the back of the net in each of their last six league matches, including a 2:1 away win against Boleslav
to keep things moving. You can bet they aren't just going to park the bus; they’ll likely push to grab at least one goal on the road. That should give us an open game
with plenty of scoring, especially since the Dodgers' attack is easily the better part of this squad.

Slaven Belupo vs Lokomotiva Chicago: Both teams to score @ 1.85 (2-2)

Not much point in rambling since you guys already nailed it... I'm expecting an open game with plenty of goals... gotta say, seeing this line at my local sportsbook today caught me off guard 😁

3/5 ; 2.23