darkhawk43 said:China is facing two major headaches. First, there's the absolute mess currently happening in the primary markets of the USA and the European Union. Second, there's the issue of wage convergence, which has eroded China's low-wage advantage so much that manufacturing is actually starting to migrate toward India, Vietnam, South America, and even Eastern Europe. Both of these are structural issues, not just some temporary cycle that's going to snap back to the old way of doing things.
When a single country enjoys nearly two decades of uninterrupted boom time—basically snatching the lion's share of global manufacturing—it’s pretty obvious you can't sustain that forever. A huge chunk of China's manufacturing growth has come directly at the expense of the rest of the world (if you do the math, roughly global GDP growth minus China's GDP growth equals the manufacturing lost elsewhere, about 5%). So, while demand for labor stays high in China, the rest of the world is losing its manufacturing base, causing labor costs to drop—which in turn tanks purchasing power while boosting competitiveness elsewhere. People have been talking about this for years, and frankly, I always found those predictions about what China would look like in 2050 hilarious, mostly because they were based on linear projections from the last twenty years. By the 2020s, the Chinese economic model will have to look fundamentally different than it did in the 2000s or 2010s.
I agree. Even the textile industry has largely migrated to Bangladesh.
And here in the States, we see our own local industries attempting to stage a miraculous comeback...
India is also capturing a significant portion of the market and is catching up demographically to China, which possesses a much older average population.
look at China
0-14 years: 20.1% (male 142,085,665/female 125,300,391) (2008 est.)
15-64 years: 71.9% (male 491,513,378/female 465,020,030) (2008 est.)
65-over: 15% (male 50,652,480/female 55,472,661) (2008 est.)
And India
0-14 years: 31.1% (male 190,075,426/female 172,799,553) (2009 est.)
15-64 years: 63.6% (male 381,446,079/female 359,802,209) (2009 est.)
65-over: 5.3% (male 29,364,920/female 32,591,030) (2009 est.)
But then again, the Chinese have begun large-scale military exercises in the Pacific.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-15866989The Chinese are seeing an aging population increase while their youth demographic shrinks...