Posts by Keith Moore21

So, looking at the slate for today—we've got Oklahoma, Indiana, Minnesota...

Bryan Adams6 said:Honestly, you’re lucky I wasn't playing this exact same thing back then😂

Man, that just popped back into my head right now🤣
I told you—it'll definitely work☕
You've got the intel on Sigurdsson right there in the chat😉

Finally wrapped things up... I ended up hitting Denver, Utah, and Houston... plus checked out Philly and San Jose in the NHL—both of those matchups were absolute snoozefests, basically just a wash with the x's 🙂

James Taylor3 said:I’m actually leaning toward the Clippers in this one. Favors is out, and honestly, I’m not sure if a slow duo like Jefferson and Milsap can really handle someone as explosive as Jordan, Griffin, and Evans—those guys could cause some serious headaches and rack up a ton of offensive boards, which means extra chances. If Utah decides to shut down the bigs, then yeah, the Clippers probably walk away with it, since Hayward, Miles, and the rest of them—aside from Harris—are pretty much nothing to me. And man, Choneyyyyy was absolutely cooking last night; he was running the floor, playing smart, and even sinking threes and layups during those clutch moments. I get that the Clippers might be feeling the fatigue from yesterday's game, but hey, they had three days of rest before that Lakers matchup, so who knows.
[/B]

I mean, I agree that the Clippers could easily pull this off—it’s a tough one to call—but I think Milsap and Jefferson have enough juice to slow things down and actually defend Blake and Jordan. Offensively, they’ve got the edge over those two; they’ve got that 1-on-1 stuff going, whereas Blake still has plenty to learn even if he is decent, and Jordan is pretty dependent on his teammates making plays and crashing the glass... Billups, as much as I love the guy, is 35 now, and apparently those back issues are still acting up, plus they played yesterday... I don't know, it's a real toss-up, but I guess I’m feeling the Jazz a bit more this time around... 🤷
but we really need to wait for news on Paul to see when he'll actually suit up...

As for the other games, I’m putting my money on Denver—I just can't pass up those +1.8 odds...

I'm hearing Howard definitely isn't suited up for Utah today. Favors mentioned he’d love to suit up, obviously, but he’s basically saying he won't make a final call until he hits the warmups—so, yeah, who knows, I guess... anyway, here's the link http://www.sltrib.com/sltrib/blogsja...e-bit.html.csp

Honestly, though? I'd still put my money on the Jazz. The Clippers are pretty banged up without Paul and Williams, and Billups is grinding out 40 minutes a night despite his back acting up—they even had that weirdly tough game against the Nets yesterday where almost all the starters had to log 35+ minutes just to keep up. The Jazz look way more rested, they're at home, and... I don't know, why wouldn't they pull this off?

stormyseal9 said:maybe it's just because Milwaukee is sitting on a 4-0 home record🤷—they’re basically a typical home team that averages about 102 points at the buzzer, whereas they tend to drop about 15 points when they're on the road. honestly, I'd say take the Bucks with a +2.5 spread, or if you're really feeling yourself, just bet 2 bucks on them🤷

I mean, I get where you're coming from, but Denver is just a better squad. They've been taking down much tougher teams than what I'd call an average Milwaukee lineup... plus, even the best teams have to slip up at home once in a while. I think taking Denver at 1.8 is probably the smart play here...

Bryan Adams6 said:don't even sweat it, I'm definitely sitting this one out 😁

so, yeah—that matchup is looking pretty solid ☕

Why on earth is Denver at 1.8 against Milwaukee?! 🤷
Denver looks stronger here—they've got a rest day, while Milwaukee is stuck playing a back-to-back... hmm, I might dive into this matchup later this afternoon, maybe even put together a full analysis if I feel like it... anyway, just don't go blindly copying ☕

Joshua Garcia8 said:Maybe just hold off on those actual bets until tonight, once all the news actually starts trickling in... 🤷
I don't really see the point in forcing it when we're basically flying blind—plus, our US sportsbooks usually lag behind on adjusting their margins late in the evening, so that's really when you can actually find some value and grab a profit.

After watching that smoke show against the Chicago Bulls last night, I’m definitely waiting until later tonight before I drop any money on a bet.😁

stormyseal9 said:Maybe it's better to bet on the Spurs not covering—I think the spread is at 7.5🤷. They seem to be in pretty good shape, whereas Miami looks like they've dropped three straight, if I'm reading that right🤷. So, what do you think, should I go over on Boozer or Deng?🤷

hmm, you know, looking at it now, that could actually work. Miami is missing Dwyane Wade, and the Spurs are without Manu Ginobili and T.J. Ford—maybe even some others too... but honestly, because of those recent losses, Miami might just show up today. And that spread isn't crazy; I'm thinking maybe something like 100-92 wouldn't be a total blowout, so I don't know, I probably need to dig into the stats a bit more before deciding...

Bryan Adams6 said:Scola over 17.5 points
Houston Rockets
Miami Heat
@3.37

Think it works? ☕

You could try it, but honestly, I'll probably be riding with the Miami Heat too ☕

Yesterday, Oklahoma City Thunder basically saved my day (and yeah, obviously that parlay hit) 😁

But man, the Chicago Bulls totally wrecked two of my tickets 😠

Bulls are roughing it 🤦

Man, the NBA is just brutal—these bookies always seem to be messing around with the odds, so if you actually want to catch a decent line, you really have to get your bets in early in the morning. Then, wouldn't you know it, about half an hour before tip-off, you find out like half the roster isn't even playing... 🙂

It’s tough, though—since their games today are right around noon, they probably just rolled out of bed a few hours ago 🤣
Oh well, that's just the NBA for you—sometimes you don't get the real intel until right before tip-off...

Man, I’m telling you—it looks like I’m gonna have to start pulling all-nighters just to prep for the fallout from Chicago...

Bryan Adams6 said:@Keith Moore21/">@@Keith Moore21 look, I'm sorry man, but I've also got Chicago, the Clippers, and OKC on my slips tonight 🤣🤣

you know how this usually ends 🙂

well, damn... and now Rose isn't even playing either... 🙂

Look, James Taylor3, we don't always hit the mark—it happens—but whatever, we'll make up for it today 👍
I honestly don't have the energy to sit down and write out a full-blown deep dive analysis, so I'll just keep it short and tell you what I'm putting my money on...

My main parlay is Chicago, Houston, and the Clippers... then on a second slip, I've got those plus some action on Orlando and Oklahoma, maybe a little water polo on the side too...

Regarding Houston, wiredcanyon39 already covered everything there—not much else to add to that logic...
For Chicago, even with Hamilton and CJ Watson being out, they shouldn't run into much trouble against Memphis. Like I mentioned in my preview, Memphis is in a massive bind because Randolph is sidelined. The rest of the squad looks decent, but probably not enough to handle a team like the Bulls. Rose really needs to go after Conley here. Looking at the shooting situation, the teams seem pretty evenly matched—Deng vs Gay at the 3—though I think Deng might struggle since he's facing such a threat without Randolph around. Down in the paint, Boozer, Gibson, Noah, and Asik should have a huge advantage against basically just Gasol. The rest of the Memphis frontcourt—especially since they're missing both Randolph and Arthur—is looking pretty thin...
Then there's the Clippers, who should take care of the Nets. From what I'm hearing, Chris Paul should be good to go, but if not, Billups steps in at PG, and Foye probably slides into the small forward spot... With Butler, Griffin, and DeAndre Jordan in the lineup, it should be plenty to handle a very struggling Nets team. I'm really hoping Paul plays, just so I can watch him and Brook Lopez try to outmaneuver each other and see who breaks first 😬

Arthur Hill2 said:Hopefully it'll be just like it was for Božić 😬

Hey, you got any kind of analysis planned for today?! I don't want us both writing about the same matchup 😬

You're totally spot on, Arthur Hill2, regarding Oklahoma... and honestly, those 1.95 odds on Orlando—who are absolutely tearing it up right now—seem like a steal for tomorrow. Howard is just straight-up destroying everything out there from the perimeter, and with the Knicks missing Carmelo and looking completely lost on the defensive end... it's a killer value play, really.

Mark Patel30 said:is Carmelo playing today?

It’s looking pretty unlikely...

Man, the lines today are actually insane...
I just went through some major matchups—Oklahoma, Houston, Chicago, and Orlando... kind of like mixing basketball with water polo or something...
I'll probably dig a little deeper later and put together a proper analysis over at SPAT...
But just off the bat, this looks like a killer double—Bulls and Houston...

Oh man, my Denver 🤦 ... Milsap absolutely tore them apart in the final quarter. I guess the Denver coach said something pretty spot on after the game—they beat Miami, got a little too high on their own supply, and ended up totally sleeping on Utah...