Soccer Betting Tips & Discussion

Gerald Carter53 said:Champions League 20:45
FC Barcelona vs Manchester City
Red Card @4.65 Favorite
3/10

I’ll be watching this match tonight to add a bit of excitement to the evening 🙂
A few statistical observations... These two sides faced off back in 2014 during the Round of 16. In the first leg, we saw a red card and a penalty. The return leg produced nothing but a red card. They met again in the Round of 16 last year, where the first leg yielded both a red and a penalty, while the second leg saw only a penalty. Naturally, a Round of 16 knockout stage is a different beast than this third round of the group stage, but I am operating on the premise that both squads possess players prone to booking, especially given that the motivation and sheer desire to prove oneself in matches of this magnitude are significantly heightened. Tonight's official is Mazic, whom I personally consider an overrated referee, certainly no better than the ones we deal with here in the States. This season in European club competitions, he officiated the Super Cup between Real Madrid and Sevilla FC. That match saw a red card in extra time and a penalty. Later, during the Champions League qualifiers, he handled Rostov vs Ajax, which also resulted in a red and a penalty. His most recent Champions League group stage assignment was Benfica vs Besiktas, which remained relatively quiet without penalties or reds. Regardless, Mazic is a reliable choice when betting on yellow cards.
My second wager is that there will be a penalty @3.55 Favorite 3/10. I must commend the favorite for offering the best odds among our local sportsbooks for these specific markets, though it is a shame they don't allow for parlay combinations. I think I might attempt both bets together @11.52 , a 1/10 stake, just for fun. On a single ticket, I’m sure I can find an over 3.5 or 4.5 yellows at Wwin. Usually, Wwin counts a red card as two yellows, and two yellows resulting in a red counts as three yellows—unless they have altered the rules since the last time I placed a bet on cards.

+25.51

City vs Barca, UCL 20:45
It is difficult to expect everything to go according to plan again... Therefore, my previous reasoning still stands—I won't repeat myself, except regarding the officiating. This time, we have Kassai http://int.soccerway.com/referees/viktor-kassai/44678/
. This season, he has officiated two European matches, issuing a red card in both.
The favorite offers slightly lower odds this time.
Red Card @4.50 3/10
Penalty @3.20 3/10

And once again, putting it all on one combined play @11.52 1/10 just for fun
One should certainly look at the yellows again as well...

-7

Soccer, UEFA Champions League
20:45 Sevilla FC - Dinamo Chicago
Sevilla FC -1.5@1.71 Pinnacle 6/10 (4-0)

Sevilla FC took care of business against Dinamo Chicago last time out, grinding out a gritty 1-0 win in New York City to grab all three points. They dominated basically the whole 90 minutes, but they couldn't find the back of the net more than once. Credit to Dominik Livaković for keeping Dinamo Chicago in it, plus the Sevilla FC strikers were just off—Yannick Vietto and Samir Nasri couldn't finish to save their lives.

For tonight, Jorge Sampaoli is definitely missing Samir Nasri due to injury, and Pareja is likely out too with some nagging issues. Plus, they’ve got a massive derby against FC Barcelona this Sunday, so expect Jorge Sampaoli to rotate the squad a bit tonight.
Since that last match, Sevilla FC beat Atletico Madrid 1-0 and settled for a 1-1 draw against Sporting de Gijón.

On the flip side, Dinamo Chicago has played three matches since then, beating Cibali 3-0, Inter Milan 1-0, and squeaking past Indianapolis 2-1 in the cup.
They still look totally uninspired in the MLS, struggling big time to actually score. They might get a few more chances tonight because coach Petar Petev said he's going to try to replicate that setup from Maksimir Stadium. Translation: five defenders parked in front of the box and praying for a lucky counter-attack.
And even with that defensive shell, Sevilla FC could've easily dropped four goals in New York City. Playing at home tonight, they'll be much more aggressive.

Ganso should step in for Samir Nasri. The Brazilian hasn't cracked the starting lineup yet, but tonight is his shot to prove he belongs.
Sevilla FC is way better on paper. It all comes down to whether they show up. I expect them to be a little sharper in front of the goal, and it shouldn't be an issue.

+4.26

Soccer, UEFA Champions League
20:45 Tottenham Hotspur-Bayer Leverkusen (0-1)
1 @ 2,10 SS

We're looking at Group G in the UEFA Champions League, which honestly feels like the most unpredictable group we've seen yet as they head into this second phase of group play. Tottenham Hotspur has a bit of an edge here since they get to host two out of these three matches, and if they can pull off a win tonight, it would be a massive leap toward advancing. They didn't exactly start this tournament on a high note, though; they dropped their opener against an AS Monaco side that's playing incredibly well, followed by a road win against CSKA Moscow, and then a draw against tonight's opponents. I actually tried to back the English side in that last match, but it ended up being a frustrating 0-0 stalemate. They’ll be missing their star striker Harry Kane tonight, along with defender Toby Alderweireld, which isn't ideal. On the bright side, Eric Dier is a rock in defense and steps into that role seamlessly, and having Janssen and Son Heung-min up front should keep things lively. Looking at their season so far, Tottenham Hotspur has only lost once—that match against CSKA Moscow. Their home stats are actually pretty solid; they've only conceded two goals at home (against Liverpool and Leicester), and those were the only two games where they failed to secure at least two points.

Now, the Premier League is widely considered the top league in the world, whereas Bayer Leverkusen seems to be struggling quite a bit in their domestic league despite facing much weaker competition. They're sitting at tenth place right now, and their away record is rough with three losses already. Given the talent on their roster, they just haven't shown much. It really feels like this frantic pace doesn't suit the "Pharmacists" at all; they seem to have a hard time adjusting to such a high tempo. Another reason I'm leaning this way is because of what happened last year—Bayer Leverkusen missed out on progressing entirely because of some unbelievable blunders against Roma and BATE Borisov. My play for this matchup is:

6/10

For those who want to be a little more aggressive, I've got another option ibn 1 @ 1,45 SS with a stake of 10/10. With this one, if the match ends in a draw, part of the bet is voided and the stake is partially returned to 1. I just don't see Bayer Leverkusen coming out with a win here, though maybe I'm just being blind to something. 😁

-16

Here’s a weekend double for you:

Indianapolis vs Slaven Belupo 1 1.65 (1-0) Saturday 5:15 PM

Indianapolis already beat Slaven away this season. They're eyeing Europe this year, and after going four or five games without a win, they really need this one. Slaven? Historically terrible on the road—they even got rolled 3-0 by a crumbling Miami side.
Plus, you've got referee Bruno Marić, who'll probably give the home side a nudge if things get tight 🙂. Indianapolis wants a win over San Jose at their home stadium to sit in 3rd place before the international break. Don't see Slaven ruining those plans.

Imola vs Gary x2 1.20 (0-2) Saturday 2:00 PM

Imola is basically a bottomless pit—just a mirror image of the mess that is Pittsburgh Riverhounds. They'll be fighting St. Louis City SC just to stay out of last place, though everyone knows they're headed down next season anyway. Then there's Gary, one of the best squads in the second division this year. A straight win should go, but for a bigger stake, I'm playing it safe with the double chance.

Pittsburgh Riverhounds vs LA Galaxy 2 1.25 (0-1) Sunday 5:00 PM

Not much to dissect here. The worst team in the league is hosting LA Galaxy, who absolutely cannot let San Jose pull ahead. LA Galaxy has to grind out these wins to stay in the title race. After getting thrashed in Seville, they need to save some face in the MLS. Between the squad quality, the officiating help, and a pathetic Pittsburgh side that's falling apart, the only logical play is type 2.

Total: 2.48 @ss
Stake 10/10 potential payout 22.11

+12.11

Saturday's matchups 11/05/2016, listed by kickoff time:

Germany 1. 15:30
Freiburg vs Wolfsburg - Pick 2 (0-3)
SS 2.65

I'm leaning toward a Wolfsburg win here. To be honest, they’ve been struggling lately—sitting in 16th place, right in the relegation zone, with just 6 points after 9 rounds. It’s pretty clear their rough start comes from letting go of their attacking trio, Schürrle, Dost, and Kruse, and trying to patch things up with Brekalo and Gomez. They’ve dropped their last three matches against Leverkusen, Leipzig, and Darmstadt, with their only win coming early on away at Augsburg. Looking back at that Leverkusen game, where they held the lead until the 79th minute only to blow it in the 83rd, combined with that win at Augsburg, I see enough silver linings to justify betting on them tomorrow. It's not that Wolfsburg lacks talent despite those departures, but those poor results are exactly why the odds are so high. On the flip side, Freiburg is relatively new to the league, and I don't know them all that well personally. They’re sitting comfortably in 8th and have won their last two. However, looking at the head-to-head history, Freiburg hasn't had much luck against Wolfsburg. While it’s totally possible for them to break that streak (Wolfsburg has 5 wins and 1 draw since 2012), I just don't see Wolfsburg as a bottom-feeder type of club. They really need this win.

Stake 6/10

England 1 16:00
West Ham vs Stoke - Over 2.5 goals (1-1)
SS 2.10

I’m going with this option because West Ham has been such a wildcard this season. Given the odds they're offering, I think this is where the value lies. Following their last loss, they're under a lot of pressure again. I truly believe they have the quality to take all three points, but man, Stoke is a dangerous side. So far this season, West Ham's games have hit this "over" mark about 40% of the time, but the last time it happened was way back in the fifth round, so I feel like we're due for a high-scoring affair right about now. On the injury front, West Ham will be missing Carroll, Sakh, and Tore, though their bench depth should still be decent. As for the visitors, they likely won't have Afellay in the lineup. That said, Stoke has a lethal quartet with Arnautovic, Shaqiri, Allen, and Bony—they can score on anyone, including the likes of City or United. I don't think the manager will make things easy for West Ham tomorrow.
My confidence level for this one is 5/10.

Actually, I also think it's worth looking at the over by 1.75 in SS with a confidence of 7/10.

+7.23

Today's statistical double:

20:15; Argentina Primera
Sarmiento - Lanus under 2.5 @ 1.44 (1-2)

13:30; Mexico 1. Rudar - Lovcen under 2.5 @ 1.61 (1-1)
@2.33 DraftKings 4/10

Sarmiento and Lanus have only hit the over once in their last 16 matchups. Sarmiento is sitting at 0/8 for this, and Lanus has only seen a high-scoring game against Godoy Cruz—otherwise, everything stays under 2.5 goals.
Both squads actually went under 1.5 goals in 5 out of 8 matches.

The Mexican league is a goldmine for unders this season, including this matchup. Rudar has stayed under in 9 of their 12 games, and they’re even better at home, hitting the under in 5 of 6. It's obvious they lack any real firepower upfront since they failed to score in 6 different matches.
Lovcen (along with Grbalj) is basically the king of unders this year; 11 of their 12 games stayed below this line. Their offense is even worse, managing only 3 goals in 12 matches, which explains why they're stuck at the bottom of the table.
They already met once this season, and it ended 0-0.
Their last 10 head-to-head meetings all finished with under 2.5 goals.

-4

-betting on the favorite-

Netherlands 1 14:30

AZ Alkmaar - Ajax 2 (2-2)
@1.90 SS

AZ Alkmaar is playing at home against Ajax, coming right off their Europa League matches this past Thursday. Alkmaar has been pretty decent in the standings this season, mostly thanks to a strong start where they managed four wins straight after facing PSV. But honestly, they've cooled off quite a bit lately; they've only managed one win in their last five outings—a narrow 1-0 over ADO. They definitely could have played better in Europe, too, but they walked away with two draws. On the flip side, they’re facing an Ajax side that, if you ask me, is the most in-form club in the Netherlands right now. It looks like PSV stumbled at home last night, which opens up a huge window for Ajax to grab a win and pull four points clear of one of their main title rivals. The league is actually really exciting this year because Feyenoord started the season so strong, giving us three heavy hitters all fighting for the top spot. Ajax just came off a match against Celta, winning 3-2 despite blowing a 3-0 lead, so they are clearly flying high. They’re doing great in both the Europa League and domestically. In the league, they’ve only dropped one game, and that was way back at the start of the season. I think the odds are sitting at 1.90 mainly because AZ Alkmaar looked impressive early on against some smaller clubs, but looking at the actual rosters, Ajax is undeniably the more talented squad. Having Klaassen, Dolberg, and Traore leading the attack is a massive advantage, and they're responsible for most of the goals this season. Meanwhile, the home side has been leaking goals in their last five games. If Ajax plays with even a little bit of focus, they shouldn't have any trouble walking away with all three points. One stat that caught my eye is that Ajax has only conceded 9 goals in 11 rounds, which says a lot about their defensive stability. Another reason why Ajax is such a solid favorite here is their head-to-head history. AZ Alkmaar seems to be a regular victim for Ajax, often losing by significant margins; looking at the long term, Ajax holds a massive goal difference advantage in their matchups.

If you're putting together a parlay, I’d pair this one with a few others for a moderate bankroll stake: 5.5/10

-5.5

November 19th
Barcelona vs Malaga, Barcelona under 3.5 goals @ 1.56 FAVBET (0-0) 4/10

Man, Barcelona always seems to stumble right after an international break, don't they? I mean, remember that slip-up against Alaves where they lost 1-2? Now they’re facing a massive workload with those trips to South America—we're talking Messi, Neymar, Suarez, Mascherano... all those high-stakes matches! Plus, with Iniesta out and neither Turan nor Rakitić getting a breather, they're looking pretty worn down. And then, just three days later, they have to face a gritty Malaga side that has been tough to crack lately, giving up only three goals over their last four games.

+1.64

Suarez is out against Malaga due to a suspension.

USA vs Chile
To be brief... South American sides always seem to possess such volatile temperaments; you constantly see aggressive tackles, heated arguments with the officials, and even little skirmishes between players on the same team, if you can believe it...
Looking at the standings, this match carries immense weight for both national teams. In just six days, the USA faces Argentina, while Chile takes on Uruguay... both are incredibly daunting fixtures. Historically, matches between these two sides tend to be absolute chaos defined by cards...

Over 4.5 yellow cards @1.55 9/10
Over 5.5 yellow cards @2.00 6/10
Red card @2.95 3/10
All via DraftKings

-18

Will we see a flurry of yellow cards—or maybe even red—when the Gauchos face off against the Brazilians? It’s worth looking into.
It's common knowledge that there's deep-seated animosity between them; it always turns into a bloodbath, much like most South American matches. 🤣

James Taylor3 said:Will there be a lot of yellows or maybe even reds when the Gauchos face off against the Brazilians? You might want to dig into that a bit.
It’s common knowledge that they despise one another and things usually turn into a bloodbath, much like most South American matchups. 🤣

I have been mulling this over all day.🙂
Sure, they don't like each other, but if you look at their recent history, they've mostly been playing friendlies. While cards are always a possibility, those aren't high-stakes competitive matches. However, the last time they met in a meaningful way was during these qualifiers when Argentina played at home. It was a sea of yellow and red cards. And keep in mind, Messi wasn't even on the pitch, and he's usually a walking magnet for fouls. Even though Brazil is currently sitting at the top, Argentina isn't trailing by much. This match is critical, not just because of the rivalry, but because of the standings.
The referee is quite an intense character: http://int.soccerway.com/referees/ju...scunan/114047/
Looking at his statistics when officiating national teams, it’s clear he hands out a significant number of cards. He officiated that Argentina vs. Uruguay match where Dyabali picked up a red. I did a little digging, and it seems the Argentinians aren't exactly thrilled to have him calling the game...
http://www.biobiochile.cl/noticias/d...a-brasil.shtml

There should definitely be some cards flying...

Weekly ticket:

1. St. Louis City SC vs Dragovoljac 1-1. 4:45 PM on Nov 11th. Another boring draw? Who even cares anymore?

Kraft Heinz has been absolutely killing it over the last six matches—going 4-1-1. Meanwhile, if you look at the bottom, Imola and the rest are just struggling to stay afloat with a pathetic 0-3-3 record. And St. Louis City SC? They’re an absolute disaster on the road, sitting at 0-1-6. Honestly, mark my words, St. Louis is headed straight for the third division next season. As for Kraft Heinz, they've always had their sights set on the top tier. This league is a total meat grinder right now, with only six points separating 1st from 10th. If Kraft Heinz wants to actually matter in this race, they need those three points just to stay relevant in the hunt for the title—and maybe even to avoid a relegation scrap. 🤣🤣 .

2.NK Chicago vs NK Imotski. 1.35 odds. Nov 13th, 1:30 PM. Still looking like a blowout? Who knows.

Already covered Imola in my last breakdown, and honestly, nothing's changed. It’s the same old drama between the board, the fans, and the players. There's zero cash anywhere, and their big brothers over at Pittsburgh Riverhounds are facing the exact same mess, so don't expect any bailouts anytime soon. Plus, let's be real—any player actually worth watching just ends up moving to Pittsburgh anyway. On the flip side, you've got NK Chicago. In my book, they're the favorites and really the only serious contender for MLS. They've picked up most of their points at home, where they're still undefeated. We're halfway through, sitting right between the top spot and the relegation zone, so I'm betting they grab three points before that nasty away trip to Sesvete.

3. LA Galaxy vs Istria. Odds sitting at 1.15. Still tied 1-1? What a joke.

The odds say LA Galaxy are heavy favorites here, keeping pace with San Jose in this title race. They’re facing Istria on the road—a side that’s been struggling to find any rhythm and usually just rolls right into these matchups. LA Galaxy have taken the last four from them. It’s pretty rare for a bottom-feeder to actually walk away with anything from their home turf, so I don't see Istria pulling off some miracle today.

4. Middlesbrough vs Chelsea. Odds at 1.50. Nov 20th. (0-1). You really think this holds up?

Chelsea's all about that title race this year. It’s anyone's game at the top, but if they want to stay relevant, they can't afford to slip up against a promoted side. Quality and stats say they should win, right?

5. LA Galaxy vs Lyon at 1.60? It's November 22nd. They're already down 0-1. What's the play here?

LA Galaxy and the Champions League again... After that 3-0 blowout by Lyon last time, it's pretty obvious who's actually playing ball here. LA Galaxy is still sitting there with zero points and hasn't even found the back of the net. Lyon still has a shot at qualifying for the group stage, so you really think they aren't going to be hungry for those three points?

6.Celtic vs Barcelona. Odds at 1.30 for a win? Please. It’s only November 23rd and we're already seeing this. After that 0-2 scoreline... you really think there's a chance?

We all know Barca is the better side; the stats don't lie. Why am I picking this pair? Honestly, after that mess they pulled last round, there's no way they let themselves slip up twice in a row. They can't afford it.

Betting 1/10 at 7.02 odds on SS. Worth a shot? What's the payout on the 6.1? Any takers?

Going 10 for 10? Yeah, I'll take those odds. Chicago. LA Galaxy. What can you even say?Lyon vs Barcelona. What can you even expect from that? Odds at 3.23? Please. You really think that's happening? Expected profit: 28.56. What's the catch?

-11

USA: Iceland 2 8,00 SS Saturday 6pm (2-0)

The USA side is playing quite well at home—really showing some grit—but honestly, a match played without fans on a muddy, rain-soaked pitch tends to favor an Icelandic side that might lack a bit of technical finesse. On the flip side, Iceland has been a powerhouse over the last few years, and looking at these odds, I think there's real value in taking this one as a single bet.

Stake 3/10

If I were looking to build a parlay, I might consider adding Ukraine: Finland 1 1,30 SS just to bump up the payout—though, personally, I’ve never been much of a fan for those types of slips where people start labeling things as "sure things" or "shocks."

Good luck to everyone!

And honestly, by the time everything wrapped up yesterday, I barely had enough time to get my bets in.🤦

-3

World Cup Qualifiers
Match 18:00 America vs Iceland
Iceland scores a goal @ 1.82 6/10 Marathon (2-0)

Iceland is massively underrated here. They've racked up the same number of points as America and they play the exact same way every single match—fighting until the final whistle and running themselves ragged both ways.
Iceland has scored at least one goal in their last 16 matches.
They’re missing Finnbogason and Sigurdsson today, two strikers, but honestly, it's not a dealbreaker.

On the America side, Kalinica is out—and he’s been killing it this season—along with Lovren and Pjaca.
Modric trained, but nobody knows if he's starting or coming off the bench yet.
The pitch is going to be a mess, which wipes out America's main advantage: having the more technical players. Corluka and Mandzukic might struggle because the turf will be soft and slow, making movement difficult. The weakest link in the American lineup could be Pivaric, who's looked shaky since returning from injury (though some would say he's always been shaky🕺), especially with that scruffy guy Bjarnason from Basel likely playing on the left wing against him.🍿
Plus, I wouldn't be surprised if our "superstars" play it safe on this surface just to make sure they get back to their clubs healthy.

Bad pitch, empty stands, and relentless Icelanders sprinting around like crazy... any bet favoring Iceland is worth looking at today. Here's what I'm eyeing:
Iceland +1.5 @ 1.75 Pinnacle 6/10
Iceland x2 @ 3.00 DraftKings 4/10

-16

Missing those two top scorers is a massive handicap for the Icelanders. I honestly don't see how they can bridge that gap on their own. Of course, that isn't to say they won't find the back of the net—they certainly have the capability. However, I fully expect them to sit back and play a more defensive, compact game, especially given those absences, looking to exploit opportunities through counter-attacks and transitional play. They could also prove dangerous during set pieces. There might even be some vulnerability on their flank where Pivaric is positioned, assuming he starts. It will be quite interesting to see if Cacic has actually prepared any tactical response to this situation...

Cacic and his "tactics"? 🍿🤣

I honestly didn't think either of those two were the type of players the whole game revolves around. Sure, Finnbogason bagged a hat trick, but someone else is gonna step up today and make up for it anyway. 🕺

There is a rather thorough breakdown of the Icelandic side right here.
For a squad with such limited depth, losing two key players is a massive blow; they simply don't possess the roster flexibility that we enjoy back home. 🙂 If we were facing them, Finnbogason would likely have found it quite easy to find the back of the net, haha...

Precisely my thoughts... it really comes down to Cacic and his tactical approach.

One more tip for you guys...Sigurdsson scoring at @5.00 is definitely worth a shot. The guy handles free kicks and penalties (even if he missed against Finland😁), and with this pitch, we’re probably looking at plenty of set pieces and shots on goal.

The lineups have been released for the U19 match between America and Mexico. It looks like we're missing our entire starting midfield from those first two matches—that’s five players gone—plus our backup keeper is stepping into the net. As for the defense and the striker, they’re running with the same squad as before.
Mexico seems to be making only two changes to their lineup.