Soccer Betting Tips & Discussion

What are we all expecting from our squad tonight?
http://m.goal.com/s/hr/news/7081/hrv...facebook.com%2F
It really hinges on which lineup the Americans decide to field. I’ve been weighing the option of a draw or a single goal win... though, if I'm being honest, my gut usually leans toward a straight victory for us.

Edit: It looks like both Vida and Badelj have been dropped from the roster.

Frankly, this group hasn't even played together during training sessions at some local park playground.😉

Ireland vs USA
Tuesday 11/15 at 2:45 PM
International Football

over 2.5 goals at 2.60 SS (0-3)

I’m eyeing this option for two pretty simple reasons. First off, the odds feel really solid and fair. Second, since this is just a friendly, both teams are likely to play with a bit more freedom and less tension. We know the US squad is heading overseas without a huge chunk of the regular starters, so the guys coming off the bench are going to be looking to prove themselves. Even though our national team hasn't conceded much lately, if we're being honest, we've been uncomfortably close to letting one slip by in almost every recent match. Usually, playing away in the British Isles isn't our best look, but I still think we're the slight favorites here. With Mandzukic and Kramaric up front, we've got plenty of firepower to find the back of the net, and since the home side is in decent shape, it explains why the odds on us are a little higher than usual.

stake 4/10

-4

19:11 13:00
Mexico 1st Division

Sutjeska - Zeta; under 2.5 @ 1.60 (0-0)
Buducnost - Lovcen; Lovcen fails to score @ 1.29 (5-0)
@2.06 Marathonbet 5/10

Sutjeska and Zeta are right next to each other in the standings. Sutjeska is sitting at 3rd with 23 points, while Zeta is just one spot below them, trailing by two.
Looking at this bet, both teams are massive "under" squads. Sutjeska has seen under 2.5 goals in 11 of their last 14 matches, and they’ve stayed under that line in all 7 of their home games this season.
Zeta is the same story—12 out of 14 matches went under, and they’re just as "reliable" on the road, hitting the under in 7 out of 7 away games.
They already met once this season, and Zeta walked away with a 1-0 win.

Buducnost is sitting pretty at the top of the table. Their defense is elite—they've only let in 6 goals in 14 games. Those 6 goals happened across four different matches; ten times they've kept a clean sheet.
I've already mentioned Lovcen before. They're a bad team, and their attack is even worse. They've only managed to score four goals all season. In 11 of their matches, their forwards were basically invisible.
In their first matchup this season, Buducnost took it 2-0.

+5.3

I am not entirely convinced that betting on a clean sheet is worth it at those odds. One stray shot, a lucky penalty, or just some random fluke and your parlay goes up in smoke. In my estimation, the payout is far too low given the inherent risk involved. Best of luck, though. 🙂
That under might be a viable play; I might take 🙂

Match 18:00 Dortmund vs Bayern
Over 3.5 yellow cards @1.45 on DraftKings, 7/10 win rate (5)

It’s a massive derby, and frankly, both sides are desperate for the points. Historically, these head-to-head matchups tend to get heated, frequently resulting in a high card count, especially since there are plenty of players on the pitch right now who seem prone to losing their cool...
The referee assigned looks like a perfect fit for this kind of intensity... http://int.soccerway.com/referees/tobias-stieler/45640/

In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if they even push past the 4.5 mark...

+3.15

Gerald Carter53, you’re basically the guru when it comes to those yellow cards. The line for Atletico vs Real is sitting at 6.5 🙏 I'm really feeling the under at 1.95

An expert? Hahaha, please, man, how on earth am I supposed to be able to call that accurately... There are certainly variables at play that might allow you to forecast an outcome, but even then, people lose bets just as easily on these matchups as they do on any other pairing, haha...
6.5 is a decent line. If he had said 5.5, I would have leaned toward the over. I’m not even sure if red cards are factored into that total!?! Personally, I tend to steer clear of this particular matchup. There’s also a 7.5 option available, which makes playing the under impossible for me.

I actually really trust a ref who averages less than 4 yellows per game...
35 in 8

sent via LG G5

Mark Murphy79 said:And we're dealing with a referee who averages fewer than four yellow cards per match.
35 in 8

sent via LG G5

http://int.soccerway.com/referees/da...59448/matches/

Back in 2014, he officiated the Super Cup and handed out ten yellows, including a red following two cautions.

When these teams start playing with those reckless, bone-crunching tackles, even a lenient official will be forced to reach for his cards.

Gerald Carter53 said:Expert, huh? Hahaha, man, how am I supposed to know that... There are definitely things that let you predict what might happen, but at the end of the day, people lose bets on this just like any other matchup, haha...
6.5 is the sweet spot. If he’d said 5.5, I would’ve jumped on the over. Not sure if red cards count toward that total though!?! Personally, I’m skipping this one. There's also a 7.5 line, which makes the under impossible to play.

Look, I get it—so many variables can flip the whole script here, especially depending on how aggressive Atletico plays. Plus, I see David Fernandez Borbalan is officiating. In the last game he called with Atletico, he handed out 6 yellows, and the one before that? He dropped 9! 🙏 no bet, honestly

I don't have much time; I'm still hunting for some value 😉

I’ve been reviewing my picks for the yellow card markets, and the one that stands out most to me is Lazio vs. Genoa to go over 4.5 yellows at @1.7 via DraftKings, a 7/10 confidence level (4) The referee seems decent enough, the teams are prone to cards, and their head-to-head history supports it. If I were the one setting the lines, I probably would have pushed it to 5.5, but honestly, I wouldn't feel comfortable betting on that higher threshold, so I expect this 4.5 line to be cleared easily.
As for the other matchups, I'm eyeing Hoffenheim vs. Wolfsburg to see over 3.5 cards, and Atletico vs. Villarreal to see over 5.5... considering my usual criteria, of course... referees, historical matchups, match importance, team styles, rivalries, and so on and so forth.

Good luck to everyone today! 🙂

-7

Guys, how much faith are we actually putting in Lyon?

The F2 line is sitting at 2.50, which honestly looks like a killer value—especially since LA Galaxy is dealing with some major injuries. Gonçalo, Antolić, and Lešković are out, plus Stojanović is serving a suspension for cards.
Lyon has a few missing pieces, but they aren't dealbreakers:
18.11 Rachid Ghezzal M 8 1-0
18.11 Emanuel Mamman D 5 0-0
29.10 Nicolas N'Koulou D 7 0-0
Just two defenders out, so frankly, it doesn't change a thing. 😁

LA Galaxy has been terrible—just straight-up bad—and I think we can all agree on that. I was reading about their match against Istria, and apparently, the ref was basically dragging the game along to favor them, yet they still managed to scrape a 1-1 draw at home.

BUT... Petev is a coach known for setting up a hell of a defense. It’s starting to look more and more to me like LA Galaxy won't even manage a single real scoring chance, and Lyon might only get a handful themselves. So, maybe we're looking at a narrow 1-0?

What do you all think? Is it worth dumping some serious cash on the Lyon handicap?

Just wait and see if Pivaric actually makes the lineup 🙂

Personally, I headed over to DraftKings myself, and if you ask me, that's definitely the game we're looking at 😁

Seville vs Juventus x @3.15 win 5/10 (1-3)

Given my recent track record with analysis on this forum, I wouldn't personally recommend putting money on this one 🙂. If it weren't for certain betting slips keeping me afloat, I’d probably tell everyone to only bet on whatever I post here as a mere suggestion, haha...

Here is how I see the situation unfolding:
Seville 10
Juventus 8
Lyon 4
LA Galaxy ha ha ha

My logic follows this path... With a draw today, Seville is virtually guaranteed to advance, even if they happen to stumble in the final round in France. As for Juventus, a draw today means they host LA Galaxy in the final round, which should be enough to secure their advancement. It’s obvious that finishing first brings perks, but for these teams, simply moving on is what matters, regardless of whether they finish first or second. Regarding the lineup, Juventus is missing Dybala and Higuain in the attack, leaving Mandzukic as the primary option. They might opt for a more cautious approach, and we know how much Italian sides love playing for the draw or a 0-0 stalemate. Even with a loss, Juventus would still have massive chances to progress given that their final match is against LA Galaxy. For Seville, however, avoiding a loss today is the priority so they can head to France with some peace of mind. Consequently, I don't expect them to rush anything. A 0-0 wouldn't surprise me at all. I’m planning to place a single bet on the draw because I believe there is genuine value here. If we were looking at two Italian clubs, the odds for a draw would likely sit around 1.50 🙂. Though, something tells me Seville has faced a similar scenario before where a draw served their interests perfectly... I can't quite recall, though. If anyone remembers the specifics, please 😉

-5

November 22nd
Champions League 8:45 PM
LA Galaxy vs Lyon
f+2 at 2.60 SS (0-1)

Today, I’m putting my whole stack on the LA Galaxy. During that match against Seville, I didn't go with the handicap because I had this gut feeling we were looking at a close first half. Honestly, I can't quite put my finger on it this time, but after reading through the analysis above and looking at the Galaxy's recent run, I'm leaning toward a Lyon win by a larger margin. I remember that game against Istria—that penalty for the Galaxy was pretty questionable, but more importantly, it really highlighted their struggles in front of the net. They just can't seem to find the back of the net against weaker sides like Istria, so expecting them to pull something off against a French side feels like a stretch. Lacazette remains their standout player this season, and even if they have a slim shot at advancing, I expect them to take this one seriously. In the Champions League, every single win matters for the prize money and those coefficient rankings; it’s the big leagues for a reason. On top of the injury news already mentioned, it feels like the Galaxy coach hasn't quite found his rhythm since taking over. They’ve been rotating the lineup so much in almost every match that it seems like they still haven't nailed down their ideal starting eleven.

For my single bet, the stake is 6/10.

For my second slip, I’m picking another option for this matchup, which is first half tip 2 (0-0) with a stake of 4/10. My thought here is that Lyon will likely be leading by halftime, sitting at 2.20 for the SS.
Be bold and good luck!

-10

Antigua and Barb.-Estonia 2 @1.90 SS (0-1)
bet 6/10

Estonia played a friendly against St. Kitts and Nevis three days ago—ended in a 1-1 draw. You can't find much in the stats, but they were likely the better side. Look, regardless of those massive blowout losses against Belgium (8-1), Canada (5-0), or Portugal (7-0), these guys are professionals—period. They just held their own in a 1-1 draw in Sweden, and they’ve beaten Malta and Latvia (who, let's be honest, are a step above these bottom-tier squads). In my book, Antigua is actually weaker than St. Kitts and Nevis—they lost 1-0 to them earlier this year, for instance. As a benchmark, Antigua barely scraped a 2-1 home win against Aruba recently, while St. Kitts and Nevis grabbed a solid 2-0 away win. Plus, it looks like they have a pretty decent stadium setup. Basically, it's highly unlikely the Estonians slip up twice against amateur-level sides—especially when they're facing an even weaker opponent now at a better venue. Taking a shot at 1.90.

Lacazette A.(idg+u)-Lyon 3.95 f2+gives SS (gives + 0-1)
bet 5/10

Lacazette has been on fire—15 goals in his last 17 matches. He’s clocked 90 minutes in the last two games, and he should be getting minutes in the Champions League too. Lyon has a very real path to advancing if Juventus pulls this off today—actually, Lyon might even be the favorites here. Their final match is at home against Seville, and all they need is for Seville's +6 handicap to evaporate while Lyon's +1 grows. Essentially, Lyon needs the handicap, and it's way easier to bank that with the LA Galaxy result than trying to absolutely steamroll Seville at home. 😁

So, adding one more:
f2 Lyon @ 2.60 SS
bet 10/10.

-10.68

The specific leg I’m planning to include in my system bet... a penalty in the Leicester Club B match.
The referee is Frenchman Bouquet. Looking back at his last two European fixtures, he basically handed out penalties on a silver platter. He’s also got a real habit of handing out cards like candy. As for Brugge, they conceded a penalty in every single one of their first three matches this season—though they finally broke that streak in the fourth round. These teams play quite aggressively, too. Honestly, I have a strong gut feeling we're looking at a penalty here.🙂

Matchday 2, Dinamo vs. Juve... not a single yellow card issued.
Matchday 3, Dinamo vs. Sevilla... Sevilla finally picked up their first yellow.

Tuesday, November 22, 2016.

USL Championship 20:45
20:45 Barrow - Guiseley 1 @1.53 (3-0)
Barrow is one of the stronger teams in the league right now. They're currently holding a spot that guarantees them a playoff berth, and I guess their ultimate goal is to fight for a higher seed.
The season is long and incredibly grueling, so I guess we shouldn't be dropping points against bottom-feeders.
Besides that, Barrow is easily the best host in the league.
The visitors are sitting at the bottom of the table, so they’ll likely be fighting tooth and nail just to stay afloat. Given that they’ve managed to scrape together only a single point from ten away matches, they're easily the worst team in the league—which makes them a pretty tempting target for anyone looking for an easy win.

MLS League 1
20:45 Sheffield Utd vs. Bury: Over 2.5 goals @ 1.55 (Current score: 1-0)
Even though Sheffield Utd is arguably the best team in the league and a heavy favorite against Bury—who haven't managed a single win in their last seven outings—I’m sticking strictly to the statistics regarding both teams' offensive and defensive records here.
Sheffield's recent results: 2:1, 1:4, 2:4, 6:0, 2:1, 3:3.
Bury's recent results: 5:1, 5:0, 1:4, 1:1, 2:2, 3:2.

kombo: 2.37
WWin
Stake: 7/10

Besides that, I guess I would play a single as well. @5,00

Sheffield Utd - Bury 5+

PSK
Stake: 3/10

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