Soccer Betting Tips & Discussion

Lokomotiv Moscow vs. Inter Miami @1.70

If Lokomotiv pulls this off, they’re sitting pretty in second. As for Inter? Honestly, they’re the absolute last squad in the league with any real shot at staying up... actually, scratch that, maybe they don't have a shot at all. They know it too. They even swapped out their manager recently, but let’s be real—it hasn't exactly turned things around. It's been pretty bleak.

Kramaric to score anytime @2.20

Lokomotiv Moscow/Ingolstadt..Over 2.5 goals @ 2.30ss
Hartberg-Lustenau........Over 2.5 goals @ 1.70ss

So, I guess Lokomotiv at home has been on this crazy run lately, like they’ve won 5 in a row with a goal difference of 13:5, and honestly, only one game wasn't an over 2.5 goal affair (that 1-0 win against Celta Vigo), though their 6th game was actually a loss to today's opponent back in October...
Ingolstadt is sitting at the bottom right now, but they're only 3 points adrift, so maybe nothing is really lost yet, and I think they know they just have to find the net—they've scored in 6 of their last 7, only failing against Hajduk—just to grab a point, especially since it's been forever since they failed to score at home in the league, like since late 2011.
Basically, 4 out of the last 5 games where Lokomotiv played at home ended up being over 2.5 goals, so...

As for Hartberg, they're almost dead last and aren't showing any signs of turning things around, so they're basically just predictably bad (zero points in their last 4 games with a goal difference of 1:9), but then you've got Lustenau in first place, though even they are in pretty terrible shape lately with only 2 points from 4 games and a 5:11 goal difference, so if they actually want to make it to the big leagues, I guess it's about time they started winning again.

Saturday at 4:30 PM

Cowdenbeath vs. Partick Thistle 2 @ 1.55

I don’t think I’ve ever seen a league schedule where two teams face off twice in just three days—talk about a grind! Honestly, Partick absolutely smoked them 3-0 this past Wednesday, and since they're still fighting tooth and nail for that top spot, why wouldn't we see the exact same thing happen this Saturday? There aren't any lineup changes for either side, the motivation is identical, and with the weather and the home turf looking the same... I mean, it's basically a carbon copy setup. Let's go!

Real Madrid vs. Zaragoza (March 30, 8:00 PM) f+2@2.10-Zaragoza is currently teetering on the edge of the relegation zone, and frankly, they haven't managed to scrape together a single win since December. On the flip side, you have Real Madrid, who have been on quite the tear with six consecutive victories. There’s always that lingering question of whether they might decide to coast a bit to save their energy for the Champions League, but even then, I suspect their bench depth is more than capable of handling business. Looking back at their recent history, Real Madrid has handled Zaragoza with relative ease, posting scores of 4-0, 3-1, and 0-4 in their last three encounters...☕

Tomorrow could be a massive win if we see some movement, which would mean the second half of the day ends up even stronger than what’s on the table right now.

Portland Timbers vs. LA Galaxy.........................1@1,60ss
Minnesota United vs. Austin FC..........................1@1,60ss
Orlando City vs. Houston Dynamo............................1@1,60ss
Real Salt Lake vs. San Jose Earthquakes........................1x@1,20ss
Philadelphia Union vs. Seattle Sounders..Da@1,65ss

I guess Portland really needs to take down LA Galaxy if they want to stay in the hunt for those playoff spots, especially since they're stuck in this super tight race for the top seeds against teams like Atlanta and New York. Both sides have swapped coaches recently, but I feel like their guy is probably a bit more capable than that old-school coach from the other side. Honestly, this game against LA doesn't mean everything to them, I mean, they can't really afford to go too high or too low right now, plus they've got that massive semifinal matchup against Atlanta on Wednesday, so maybe they'll play a little more seriously than they would today.
If Minnesota pulls this off, they'll tie up with Austin FC at the top of the table and share first place... looking at their last 5 games home/away: Min:4-0-1..(14:5)
Aus:0-1-4..(2:14)
For that third spot which basically guarantees promotion, there are like four different teams in the mix, and Orlando is one of them, so they've got a pretty decent shot today to pull away from the pack or at least hold their ground... the tricky thing about this pick is that Houston is fighting just to stay out of the lower leagues, so they definitely won't just roll over, though the stats don't look great for them... last 5 games home/away: Orl:4-0-1..(6:2)
Hou:1-2-2..(5:7)
Salt Lake is basically fighting for survival in the league, and if they need to grab some points anywhere, it’d probably be at home against the bottom-dwellers of the league
last 5 games home/away: RSL:1-3-1(5:4)
SJ:0-1-4(1:6)
The US Second Division is usually known for being a total goal fest... and since Seattle actually seems a bit better on the road than at home, I guess that made this pick feel a little more solid to me, and even the bookies seem to agree.. :-)

good luck everyone!

Injuries/Absences:
Nottingham Forest v Brighton
Nottingham Forest: Lansbury (24/4 m) (uncertain)
Brighton: El-Abd (31/1 d), Bruno (28/1 d), Barnes (31/6 f), Mackail-Smith (29/11 f, leading scorer), Hoskins (11/0 f)

FC Augsburg v Hannover 96
FC Augsburg: Jentzsch (5/0 d), Philp (4/0 d), Werner (23/4 m)
Hannover 96: Eggimann (19/1 d), Andreasen (4/2 m), da Silva Pinto (23/1 m), Franca (0/0 m), Huszti (21/9 m), Stindl (14/2 m), Diouf (21/10 f, leading scorer)

Bayern Munich v Hamburg
Bayern Munich: Badstuber (12/0 d)
Hamburg: Lam (3/0 m), Beister (20/3 m), Ilicevic (6/1 m), Jansen (22/0 m), Jiracek (7/0 m), Berg (11/0 f)

Borussia Dortmund II v Preussen Munster
Borussia Dortmund II: Günter (16/0 d), Hübner (23/1 d), Fring (19/0 m), Treude (9/0 m), Ducksch (3/0 f)
Preussen Munster: Halet (0/0 d)

Kickers Offenbach v Unterhaching
Kickers Offenbach: Husterer (19/3 d), Lamprecht (1/0 d), Vogelsang (5/0 m)
Unterhaching: Riederer (22/0 starting keeper), Hofstetter (28/0 d), Niebauer (0/0 d), Bichler (0/0 m), Sternisko (0/0 m)

Aberdeen FC v Hearts FC
Aberdeen FC: Naysmith (8/0 d), Osbourne (19/1 m), Considine (18/0 d), Clark (10/1 m), Hughes (21/0 m) (uncertain)
Hearts FC: -

Livingston FC v Dunfermline
Livingston FC: McNulty (24/6 f) (uncertain), Watson (11/1 d), Ke. Jacobs (12/3 m), Docherty (8/0 d)
Dunfermline: Gallacher (28/0 starting keeper), McMillan (27/1 d), Dowie (30/2 d), Jordan (20/1 d), Cardle (25/3 m), Barrowman (22/10 f, leading scorer), Kirk (26/4 f) (everyone left the squad)

Queen of the South v Brechin City
Queen of the South: McShane (0/0 m)
Brechin City: McLauchlan (19/2 d), Moyes (25/2 d), Brown (18/3 d), Molloy (14/0 m)

Sunderland v Manchester United
Sunderland: Vaughan (18/0 m), Sessegnon (30/5 m) (both uncertain), Brown (0/0 d), Cattermole (10/0 m), Cuellar (20/1 d), Fletcher (28/11 f, leading scorer)
Manchester United: Fletcher (3/1 m), Keane (0/0 f)

Manchester City v Newcastle Utd
Manchester City: Rodwell (8/0 m), Richards (3/0 d), Maicon (7/0 d)
Newcastle Utd: Ben Arfa (13/3 m), Tioté (19/0 m), Debuchy (9/0 d), Santon (30/1 d), Coloccini (19/0 d), Haïdara (2/0 d), Harper (4/0 g), R. Taylor (1/0 d), Vuckic (0/ m0), Krul (22/0 g)

Levante UD v Sevilla FC
Levante UD: Barkero (23/5 m), Valdo (6/0 m) (both uncertain), P. López (13/0 d), El Zahar (24/2 f), Ballesteros (24/0 d)
Sevilla FC: Trochowski (6/2 m), Campaña (5/0 m)

CD Lugo v Xerez CD
CD Lugo: Quiroga (3/1 f), Iván Pérez (8/0 m), Guayre (2/0 f), Javi Rey (0/0 m), Font (19/0 m)
Xerez CD: Íñigo Vélez (7/1 d), José Mari (11/2 f), Ruz (7/0 d), Iago Bouzón (22/0 d), Manu Redondo (14/0 d), Mendoza (27/0 d), Prieto (19/1 d)

Córdoba CF v CE Sabadell
Córdoba CF: Gaspar (11/0 d), Dubarbier (28/2 f), Pedro (29/5 m)
CE Sabadell: Olmo (0/0 d), Espasandín (16/1 d), Fito (14/0 m), Arteaga (8/1 m), Goni (10/0 d), Tortolero (10/1 d), Ciércoles (21/0 m), Ramírez (29/0 d)

Real Salt Lake v Seattle Sounders
Real Salt Lake: Morales (0/0 m), Stephenson (3/0 m), Balchan (0/0 d), Saborio (3/3 f) (all uncertain), Salcedo (0/0 d), Grossman (1/0 m), Wingert (0/0 d), Viana (0/0 m)
Seattle Sounders: Ianni (0/0 d)

Seattle Sounders - LA Galaxy 1 @ 2.00

Look, this is a bit of a fan pick, but honestly? Seattle is just better than LA, and they seriously need to show it today. They're sitting on a one-point lead over Galaxy, and if they pull this off, they jump four points clear and leave the relegation scrap behind them. Yeah, Seattle’s dropped three in a row, but don't let that fool you—those games weren't even close to being blowouts. They got unlucky against Roma, where basically it was "Seattle plays, Roma scores," then Milan snatched points after at least two penalties should've gone their way, and against Fiorentina, they basically just beat themselves with some defensive blunders from Tzorvas and Cassani, even though the offense looked surprisingly sharp in the second half once Jorquera and Jankovic came on. So yeah, I'm sticking to my guns: they were just missing a tiny bit of luck in all three matches, and that luck has gotta swing back eventually.
Expected lineup in a 3-5-1-1: Frey- Manfredini, Portanova, Granqvist- Moretti, Antonelli, Kucka, Matuzalem, Cassani -Jorquera - Borriello. We might see Jankovic and Immobile later on, especially since Immobile looks like he finally woke up after scoring for the U-23s this week.
Why Seattle wins:
- Home field advantage and how much this game matters
- A pretty solid squad overall (even without Bertolacci, Vargas, Rossi, and the long-term absence of Floro Flores)
- The Galaxy coach, Iachini, has been talking trash about Seattle before, so beating him would be huge for keeping their promotion hopes alive
- A packed stadium here in Seattle

Potential issues:
- Pressure from the home crowd because the stakes are so high (hopefully guys like Portanova and Matuzalem have the veteran experience to handle it)
- LA would be perfectly happy walking away with a draw since they'd still be just one point behind
- Last year around this time, things got pretty chaotic when playing LA

This isn't some "lock" or a massive recommendation, but if anyone's on the fence about this one, I just wanted to give you my subjective take on the situation. 🙂

Jacob Torres21:
"Bayern Munich vs Hamburg
Bayern Munich: Badstuber (12/0 d)
Hamburg: Lam (3/0 m), Beister (20/3 m), Ilicevic (6/1 m), Jansen (22/0 m), Jiracek (7/0 m), Berg (11/0 f)"
I guess I should probably mention that it feels like they're playing without their star midfielder too, if you know what I mean..
Bayern Munich vs Hamburg....1@1.30ss

Jacob Torres21:
"Livingston FC vs Dunfermline
Livingston FC: McNulty (24/6 f) (doubtful), Watson (11/1 d), Ke. Jacobs (12/3 m), Docherty (8/0 d)
Dunfermline: Gallacher (28/0 first goalkeeper), McMillan (27/1 d), Dowie (30/2 d), Jordan (20/1 d), Cardle (25/3 m), Barrowman (22/10 f, top scorer), Kirk (26/4 f) (all left the club)"
The odds totally tanked from 1.80 down to 1.30—and honestly, now I totally see why that happened
Livingston FC vs Dunfermline...1@1.30ss

If we toss in some more action, like, who would actually even win here? The coach of that disciplined squad really managed to tighten up a defense that hasn't conceded in three games, though they haven't even been able to get a shot on goal in the last two... I mean, the Lakers have been kind of unpredictable this season, like when they pulled off that huge upset in the playoffs because everyone totally underestimated them... but I'm guessing that won't happen today because the coach is way too experienced to let something like that slip through his fingers. Oh, and if the striker gets healthy and comes off the bench after basically being out forever, I'm really hoping he scores.
Lakers vs Warriors......1@1.20ss

And if we add "jadewolf16's" favorite (that second Scottish game) onto this, we're looking at a pretty decent little parlay...

Good luck, everybody!

Edit: Just saw this now..
Ever since that game in Miami where the defender picked up his third yellow card, it was super obvious he wouldn't be playing against the Warriors, but then things got even messier because two more defenders ended up getting hurt. First, there was the guy playing for the national team who might miss the next game against the Knicks, and then another defender got banged up during practice. So the team is basically stuck without three of their four main starters from this spring; they've "only" got Šime Vrsaljko left.
For a smaller play:- odg3+....da@2.35ss

Hibernian vs. Inverness Over 3.5 goals @DraftKings

The home side is basically a walking disaster zone defensively right now because their backline is a mess today:
They're missing guys like Paul Hanlon and Jorge Claros... plus there's a massive question mark over whether Ryan McGivern even shows up at all.
On the flip side, the visitors are dealing with some holes too:
Their starting keeper Ryan Essona is out, and they're also missing defender Gary Warren.
Both these squads seem to have this obsession with playing high-octane, end-to-end soccer—most of their matches are absolute goal fests.
I mean, look at Inverness—they've only had 10 games all season where they didn't see at least three goals fly into the net.
Hibernian is averaging about 2.6 goals per game, while the visitors are cranking out a whopping 3.3.
And when these two meet, the net almost always bulges:

09/22/12 Hibernian vs. Inverness 2 : 2
12/08/12 Inverness vs. Hibernian 3 : 0

Since both teams clearly prefer an aggressive, attack-first style—and considering how thin their defenses are looking right now—I’m expecting plenty of chances and a whole lot of scoring...

Arsenal vs. Tavriya 2 DNB 1.50

Look, even though Tavriya is technically the away side against Arsenal, they’re basically playing at home in Simferopol today...
Arsenal is looking absolutely shambolic right now—they lost way too many key players during the break—and honestly, I don't see them pulling anything together against a solid squad that's still playing on their own turf.
Under normal circumstances, there’s just no way Tavriya walks away with a loss here...🤷

Utrecht vs. VVV Venlo 1 1.50

Utrecht hasn't tasted defeat against VVV Venlo in four whole seasons.
In their last six matchups against VVV, Utrecht has stacked up five wins and one draw... totally dominant.
The visitors are in absolute freefall—they've dropped three straight and haven't managed to find the back of the net once in that stretch.
They're also dealing with injuries, missing striker Nwofor and defender Marcel Seip...
As for the home side, they've only got a few guys out, and those are players who have been sidelined for a while anyway.
I think Utrecht is the real deal here; they've proven all season that they know how to dismantle weaker teams, especially at home, plus they're fighting hard for a European spot...
They aren't exactly easy to score on either—they've got one of the better defenses in the Eredivisie when they're playing on their own patch.

odds: 2.25

April 6th

West Bromwich-Arsenal 2 @ 2,00

Arsenal basically has zero distractions right now—it’s all about that sprint toward a Champions League spot! They’ve got everything going for them. On the other hand, West Brom isn't exactly sweating it; they've already secured their survival, so they're mostly just talking about trying to break their own single-season points record. Honestly, with the momentum, the motivation, and the pure talent on display, plus those sweet 2.00 odds... everything is pointing toward an Arsenal win, right?

Eintracht Frankfurt vs. Union Berlin: Over 3 goals at 1.97

Look, these two neighbors sitting right next to each other in the standings—they both play high-octane, end-to-end soccer. If you're looking at teams that just refuse to stop scoring, they're easily top 3 in the league... seriously...
Frankfurt is averaging about 2.7 goals per game, while Berlin is pushing a massive 3.2 average per match.
Neither side really has a prayer when it comes to fighting for promotion or making a serious run at the title—their chances are basically non-existent—but there is absolutely no way they're going to sit back and play boring defense... definitely not...
Even when they're playing away from home, Berlin plays like they’ve got nothing to lose; their away average is an insane 3.7 goals per game.
They give up goals like crazy, sure, but man, they score them just as often.
I’m expecting a wide-open, chaotic match where both sides just go toe-to-toe trying to snatch a win... it should be a wild ride.
Frankfurt just tore it up at home against Aalen with a 6-1 blowout, and last week, Berlin dismantled St. Pauli 4-2 at their own place. I'm banking on that same offensive madness continuing here.
The home side is missing two defenders and two backup strikers, and the visitors are heading out without their starting keeper... with lineups this thin on defense, I'm expecting plenty of goals.

20,30 Cobresal vs. U. Catolica (2.5 Over 1.55 US)
Away Win 1.70 US

So, Cobresal hasn't managed a single win yet, even though we're eight rounds deep into the season. They’ve only got one point on the board, so talking about "form" is kind of a joke at this point... Catolica, on the other hand, is a solid squad. They’re gunning for the top of the table and they really ought to be handling teams like this easily, regardless of where they play. Actually, looking at the stats, Catolica is leading the league in scoring with an average of 3.75 goals per game, while Cobresal is sitting in third with a 3.63 average. Because of that, I’m expecting more goals and more frequent action 😁 than pretty much any other matchup this weekend. Catolica had a cup match back on March 28th against Cobreloe, but I don't see that being a major distraction or anything that would cause them to drop points here, which is why I'm leaning towards the away win... They just snapped a two-game losing streak last week with a road win over Huachipata, and if things keep going the way they are, they might just keep this winning momentum rolling right through this game.

Oriente Petrolero vs. The Strongest – Over 3.0 @ 1.65

MLS Regular Season.
Looking at the home side, Oriente Petrolero—they’ve been absolutely tearing it up at their own stadium, averaging 3 goals per game, actually, if you look at the total match average at home, it’s sitting right at 4... crazy stuff.
Out of their last 8 home matches, they’ve hit the over 7 times. Seven! That’s basically a lock.
They’re pumping out an average of 2.6 goals just by themselves when they play at home.
Right now, they’re sitting pretty in 2nd place in the standings.
Then you’ve got The Strongest—they’re currently in 8th, but keep in mind they’ve actually got two games in hand compared to Oriente.
The Strongest are absolutely red-hot right now—four straight wins, and every single one of them went over the goal line.
And get this—if you factor in their Copa Libertadores run, all four of those matches also ended with 3+ goals... so if you combine the league games with the continental stuff, The Strongest have been involved in 8 straight matches with 3 or more goals. Just relentless.
In their first 9 rounds, they’ve put 16 in the net but let in 15, which puts their match average at 3.4 goals. Pure chaos.
Their last two outings? Both were high-scoring affairs.

01/13/2013 The Strongest-Oriente P. 1 : 2
11/11/2012 The Strongest-Oriente P. 3 : 0

With these two offensive powerhouses facing off, I’m expecting another absolute shootout with plenty of goals...

Barnsley vs. Leicester City 1 @ 3.40

Look, Barnsley back in 2013—they were absolutely killing it at home, picking up 6 wins out of 7 matches played there.
They’ve managed to grab 23 points out of a possible 39 this year... which isn't nothing, I guess.
They’re fighting tooth and nail to stay up, but man, they just refuse to roll over. They've got some real grit.
They’ve scored in 19 straight games too—and yeah, I'm not even counting that away game against Man City in the US Open Cup.
Over their last 16 outings, they've only tasted defeat 4 times. Pretty solid if you ask me.
Now, Leicester... man, they've been rough. Only one win in their last 11 matches. They've basically fallen out of the playoff hunt, though they aren't totally dead in the water yet... still hanging on by a thread.
And get this—they’re playing today without their captain and main defensive anchor, Wes Morgan, who caught a red card against Millwall.
On top of that, Sean St Ledger is out on loan at Millwall, so the visitors are dealing with a massive hole in their defense—which is already a disaster since they haven't kept a clean sheet in 6 straight games.
For the backline today, they're looking at Zach Whitebread and Michael Keane, who's just here on loan from United.
Both sides desperately need the points, but honestly? Given how things are shaking out and the current momentum... I’m leaning toward the home side.
I could see a Leicester loss here easily because they just haven't shown anything lately, whereas the home team is playing with a massive chip on their shoulder to stay in the league.

That 3.40 odds? It's worth a shot. In my book, that's where the real value is...

^^^^

Honestly, I’d be real careful if I were looking at the US lower leagues.
Take a team like Louisville City—they've got the tightest defense in the USL right now, but those games are wide open; anyone can beat anyone on any given Sunday.
Even though neither of these two clubs has been playing particularly great lately, Louisville is sitting right near the top of the table, whereas a team like Memphis Depay's old squad is struggling big time, conceding goals left and right and basically fighting for their lives against relegation.

If you really wanted to get aggressive with it, you might consider betting on Memphis to score anytime at decent odds, or maybe go for the Over 1.5 goals line.

St. Louis City vs. FC Cincinnati Over 2.5 goals @ 1.70

Just a quick look at this matchup from the USL Championship. Kickoff is at 6:30 PM. There isn't much to dissect here, really. Anyone following this league knows both these sides love to play wide open—especially St. Louis, who seem to find the back of the net and concede one almost every single week. That’s why the odds are sitting where they are. When you have two high-octane teams facing off, betting on goals feels like the safest bet. If you're feeling a bit more adventurous and looking for better value, an away win might be worth a shot since the visitors are looking pretty sharp lately.

A quick heads-up to the mods: if this post doesn't meet the guidelines, please just delete it. I'd rather have the post removed than deal with a week or two of being banned.

Real Madrid vs. Galatasaray (03.04. 20:45) more than 1.60

The Turkish side tends to play with a certain level of aggression when it comes to picking up bookings; they've already racked up 17 yellow cards in the Champions League this season alone. Compare that to Real Madrid’s 11, and I suspect both squads will complement each other perfectly in terms of fouls, making the over feel like a relatively safe bet. Especially if Real finds themselves struggling under the intense pressure from the Turkish side, you can almost guarantee players like Ramos, Pepe, Arbeloa, and the rest will be seeing some yellow.☕

00,45 Caracas vs. Huachipato (Over 2.5 goals @ 1.85 odds)

So, we're looking at Matchday 5 of the Champions League group stage, and honestly, nobody’s out of the running just yet. It’s still anyone's game. Caracas is sitting in third with 6 points, while Huachipato is stuck at the bottom with 4. Flamengo is leading the pack with 7, and maybe some team like Atlanta United or similar is hovering right behind them with 6. Everything is wide open... I remember when these two met earlier in the tournament—when Huachipato was playing at home, Caracas walked away with a 3-1 win. But things have shifted since then. After a total disaster of a season start, Huachipato finally found their footing. Back in March, during the fourth round of their domestic league, they pulled off three straight wins. Their most recent outing was a 3-0 shutout on the road, so they aren't the same squad we saw at the beginning of the year. They've actually got some teeth now. Why am I leaning toward the over here? First off, the odds look too good to pass up. Second, I’m expecting a chaotic, end-to-end kind of match. Both sides are basically desperate; they both need this win if they want any hope of advancing. If an early goal lands, the floodgates could easily open. Might end up looking a lot like their last match...