Soccer Betting Tips & Discussion

Dragovoljac - Dinamo Chicago f+2 @ 1.80 4/10 SS

The match is being held at a neutral site in Kranjčevićev. Dinamo is miles ahead of Dragovoljac—even if they decide to rotate the squad, which seems unlikely.
Dragovoljac is arguably one of the weakest sides in the league; most of their core consists of players who were grinding in the second division last year.
Dinamo doesn't have another qualifying round for two weeks, so there’s no reason to hold back. I expect a comfortable win for Dinamo.

Hannover - Wolfsburg over 2.5 goals @ 1.79 2/10 Favorite

Last season, Hannover played an ultra-attacking style—their matches were regular goal fests. Based on recent reports, they intend to stick to that same aggressive approach this season.
Wolfsburg boasts a potent attacking line featuring Perišić-Diego-Vieirinha-Olić, so I'm anticipating an open game—a sentiment backed up by their head-to-head history.

Olić to score @ 3.60 2/10 PSK

Our strikers always seem hungry at the start of the season, and Olić is leading the charge for Wolfsburg. Given how leaky Hannover's defense has been lately, Ola could easily find the net—the odds look great.

18:30 U. Catolica - Palestina (Over 2.5) 1.65 SS
BTTS & Over 3.0 2.05 SS

Honestly, this match doesn't really matter for anything. Both teams have already punched their tickets to the next round of the cup, and their group standings are basically set... nothing on the line. Catolica will probably field a lineup of benchwarmers and rotation guys who haven't seen much action lately. As for Palestina, I don't have the exact info, but I’m betting they’ll do the same thing. When you look at the goal trends in this cup, Catolica has played five matches and all five went over the goal line—four of those ended with BTTS and Over 3.0. Palestina isn't far behind either, with four overs in their last five games, including three where both sides found the net and we saw 3+ goals. Given how open things usually get in these types of games, and since neither side is desperate for a win, I’m expecting some fluid movement on the pitch. Plus, when the second-string players step up, they usually play like their lives depend on it just to grab some attention from the coach. Both squads have been looking decent in league play too, so today should feel like a glorified exhibition match 🙂 and I'm hoping for plenty of action in both nets...

Sunday 9:00 PM

Flamengo RJ-Sao Paulo FC 2 @ 2,80

Man, Sao Paulo has basically been smashing every single negative record in their history this season—longest drought without scoring, longest winless streak, worst standing after so many rounds... you name it, they've done it!

And get this: at the start of the season, everyone had them pegged as the absolute favorites to take home the title.

Look, I get it, they’ve dealt with a mountain of problems—injuries, bad luck, all that stuff—but honestly? There are zero excuses left at this point. They’ve finally rested up from the tour, their biggest stars are back in the lineup, and I really think it’s high time they grabbed a win. I mean, look at their last 17 matches—they’ve only managed one single victory, and that was when they were total underdogs playing Benfica in Lisbon!

Sunderland - Fulham 1 @2,25 HL

It’s only the first round, so there isn't much to say about how either side is actually playing yet—but still... Sunderland under di Canio looks like a much more exciting squad, and I'm backing them to take all three points against Fulham. Their preseason was quite impressive, especially that 3-1 win over Tottenham, which showed they can really attack... They've brought in Altidore, who is clearly a top-tier talent and in great shape right now, whereas Fulham picked up Bent. He just doesn't seem to be in the same league he used to be—not in terms of form, and he might not even be match-fit... Then there's Taarabt, who is brilliant when he's on, but his fitness is also a question mark. Of course, Fulham's attack relies heavily on Berbatov's spark, but Kacaniklic is such a vital piece of that puzzle, and if he's struggling with an injury, he won't be at 100%... While Fulham has had decent recent results at Sunderland, they are much better known as a home-field team that picks up most of their points in front of their own fans. Their preseason wasn't anything to write home about, and aside from a change in ownership, nothing much has changed at the club—they spent most of last season hovering just above the relegation zone...

Rijeka - Miami - X - 4.00

Even though Rijeka is my favorite here too, Miami is honestly just a much higher quality squad than how they looked at the start. Križanac is back—he played a half against Zagora on Tuesday, he's been training for over a month now, and Rebić actually scored, so his confidence is right up there for the best player on the pitch... the odds are high, definitely worth a shot. You could even maybe parlay it with Benko at @1.50.

Valencia - Malaga 1 - 1.50

Malaga is a total wreck. They lost their most vital link, Pellegrini, Demichelis left for Atletico on a free, they sold Isc for 30 million, Toulalana went to Bayern Munich for 5m, Nacho to Arsenal for 10m, Joaquin to Fiorentina for 2m, and Bounanteta to Granada for 2.3m. To top it off, Saviola, Demichelis, Santa Cruz, and Ittura—literally the entire starting lineup—all left for nothing, and they haven't signed anyone meaningful. Just a few players for a million bucks, nothing real.

Valencia, on the other hand, also cashed out on Soldado (30m), Costa (6.5m), and Valdes (3m), but they brought in Helder Postiga. He bagged 14 goals last season for that desperate Real Zaragoza side that got relegated to the second division, and I truly believe he’s capable of hitting 20+ goals this season for Valencia. They’ve also got Đukić as the new manager, but regardless of how they performed this season, they should easily handle a Malaga side that I'm predicting will be fighting just to stay in the league.

I'd also take a look at three German matchups for goals, though since it's the start of the season, we don't know a whole lot about these teams yet.

HSV/odg-Hoffenheim yes 1,55
Stuttgart/odg-Leverkusen yes 1,55
Wolfsburg/odg-Schalke 04 yes 1,50

Same logic applies to all three. The Germans. They love scoring. They're similar to the Dutch sides—not much defensive structure or massive walls in the back, games are lively, the fans are loud, and every single one of these teams has some kind of lethal striker (Kissling, Olić, Perišić, Ibišević, Van der Vaart, Huntelaar...).

Man Benko scores is honestly one of my absolute lock bets if he’s actually getting minutes... the guy is basically the league's top scorer right now and he is absolutely on fire. I’ve got a feeling Rijeka is going to drop at least two or three goals today, and I wouldn't be surprised at all if Benko finds the back of the net just once.

No cards or points needed here, please. I'll just summarize it in my own words rather than doing a direct copy-paste—it’s much faster that way.

Portuguesa - Botafogo 2 (2.10)

Portuguesa is sitting at 18th place right now, which is third from the bottom, with just 13 points. They're dealing with a massive wave of injuries and suspensions heading into this one. Their coach is actually going to start seven bench players because they're missing 14 people from the squad! Between an important upcoming Copa Sudamericana match on August 22nd and all these absences, they're shorthanded. On the suspended list, we have Moises Moura (DF), Gilberto (ATT), Canete (MF), and their top scorer Diogo (ATT). Then there's the injury list: Washington (MF), Souza (MF), Romao (ATT), Muralha (MF), Ivan (DF), Lima (DF), Lucas (ATT), Viana (ATT), Bruninho (MF), and Henrique (MF). Honestly, Botafogo is Better team Than Portuguesa. Botafogo is currently 2nd in the standings with 26 points—just two behind first-place Cruzeiro—but since they have a game in hand, a win today would put them right at the top.

57/102(93.04% constant hits and pure skill)
slips:2/16(44.85/45)

103.Randers-Esbjerg...2@2.55ss
104.Thor-Fylkir.....2@2.70ss
105.Manchester City/draw3+-Newcastle....Da@2.05ss
17.l.: everything above for 2

Esbjerg has basically been on fire since the end of last season: 3-0-1 (12:3), while Randers is more like 1-2-1 (7:7)..
Last 5 games: Thor went 0-1-4, but Fylkir was 4-1-0... honestly, I feel like any other way of looking at this is pretty much pointless, unless maybe someone happens to have some inside info on who might be missing from Fylkir's lineup, because based purely on their current form, they really should just roll right through it..
Friendlies aren't exactly the best way to make predictions, but I'll give it a shot anyway.. Newcastle has played 6 decent matches and they've managed to put the pressure on in every single one, so hopefully they'll do it again tonight too.. If we assume that Manchester City is actually supposed to take this one, then we end up with...

this Wednesday
106.Atletico vs Barca... more than 2.5 goals... Yeah @ 1.55ss
107.Atl/over 3+-Barca........................Yeah @ 1.85ss

Since December 21, 2006 NEVER have they played a match with under 2.5 goals... Out of those 15 games, 11 ended with over 3+ goals...

Sunday 5:00 PM

Stromsgodset-IF Molde FK 1 @ 1,75

In the HL, the odds have already dropped to 1.65—can you believe they were sitting at 2.00 just this morning?! Man, Stromsgodset had that win practically in their hands tonight before a total heartbreak of an own goal in the 92nd minute... seriously? They played Rosenborg to a 2-2 draw last week too, so I’m really hoping they don't get stuck in a nasty streak of draws. On the other side, Molde has a massive game coming up on Thursday that could honestly save their entire season—they're currently just stuck in the middle of the pack, and honestly, points aren't even their main priority right now compared to that cup run.

August 28th

The return leg


Celtic - Shakhtar Karagandy h(0:2) 1 @ 3.00

I missed the first match, but man, I am absolutely floored by everything I'm reading from those who actually watched it last night

Here’s my take: Karagandy is a squad with pretty modest quality that just happened to get lucky—meanwhile, Celtic wasn't aggressive enough

And honestly, looking at their roster... I mean, what can you really expect from a guy playing for some random club at 29 years old when he's supposed to be the star player for a team trying to make it into the Champions League?

Celtic can, must, and definitely will attack in their own backyard from the opening whistle! Just one goal in the first half is all they need to flip the script and head away in a much better spot. A 3-0 win is totally realistic, especially when you consider that luck eventually has to swing back toward the Shakhtar side anyway

If you ask me, based on how they played, Shakhtar should have been out already. Between that missed penalty and that hilarious mistake by the keeper—not to mention that mess against Skenderbeu—they almost blew a 3-0 lead in Albania too

Remember when Celtic was in that nightmare 0-5 hole against Petržalka back in 2004? They still managed to claw their way back to a 4-0 win. This time around, both the opponent and the scoreline feel way more manageable

Atletico vs. Barcelona—taking the away win at 1.8 with the local bookies here.

Honestly, you could probably cash that bet against anyone except maybe Bayern Munich.
They looked incredibly sharp in their match against Levante—who, let’s be real, aren't exactly an elite squad compared to Atletico—but even then, Atletico isn't exactly a defensive fortress, nor do they have the kind of counter-attack that would punish Barca specifically.

Let's try to cash some tickets today: 😛

Rijeka vs Stuttgart BOTH TO SCORE @1.75

I’m expecting a total shootout here. Honestly, neither the Rijeka nor the Stuttgart defense looks even remotely solid, and both offenses are definitely going to exploit those gaps. With the crowd going wild, I'm calling it—both sides are finding the back of the net.

Texas vs Sheriff 1 @1.90 (top) PSK

Texas is absolutely on fire right now. I watched them absolutely steamroll an expensive Orlando City SC squad right in the middle of Istanbul, so why wouldn't they handle Sheriff at home? They have this massive chance to break into Europe, and they're playing with insane confidence. I'm taking the win.

Nomme Kalju vs Dnipro 2 @1.20

I honestly don't see what kind of miracle could save the Estonians from getting wrecked in this one. They already got dismantled by Plzeň, and now they're facing a high-quality Ukrainian side that isn't about to let anything slip through their fingers. An easy away win for the visitors is basically a lock.

Partizan vs Thun—I’m calling it now, Thun scores at 1.50 odds

Seriously though, Partizan got absolutely smoked by Novi Pazar last week—three goals conceded! Can you believe that? Plus, they’re missing both Volkov and Gulan in the defense today, which is huge. On the flip side, Thun is basically a goal machine, consistently dropping two goals per match in a league that's honestly looking better than the Mexican or Swiss leagues right now

Saturday 4:00 PM

Celtic vs Inverness both teams to score YES @ 1.75

Looking at the stats first—neither side has seen both teams score in their last four matches! So, I’m calling it: the streak ends here. Plus, Celtic might play a bit more relaxed since they've got that massive midweek showdown coming up on Wednesday—basically the game of the season! They might even rotate the squad a bit, you know?

On top of that, Inverness is sitting pretty at the top of the table with three wins straight. They're in killer form, which means even if Celtic is distracted by Wednesday, they should find plenty of gaps to exploit!

Monaco vs Toulouse (-3+) Over 2.90

Both these sides just love playing open, attacking football. Now, look, it’s probably a stretch to think Toulouse is actually going to charge right through a Monaco side that looks like they're on a mission, but let's be real—their whole vibe isn't really built for sitting back and parking the bus. Monaco has been absolutely flying lately; they look sharp, aggressive, and honestly, pretty lethal. I mean, Rivere has already bagged 4 goals in just two matches. He actually said himself, "Opposing defenses are all obsessed with marking Falcao, which just leaves me with way more room to work my magic." I've got a feeling the guy is just going to keep trucking along. Plus, since he used to play for Toulouse, he knows exactly what they're capable of. If Falcao keeps chipping in with at least one goal a game, Toulouse might actually walk away happy with just four goals on the board, kind of like how Montpellier fared a couple weeks ago.

Heerenveen vs Ajax – betting on the Over at 1.70 HL

This honestly looks like the most solid play on the board today.
If you look at the trends—Heerenveen's last two home matches have been absolute goal fests—and when you consider that every single one of Ajax's games this season has gone over the total—it’s hard to bet against it.
My gut feeling? A high-scoring 2:2 draw.

Athletic Bilbao vs Osasuna – backing Bilbao at 1.8 HL

Bilbao is clearly the superior side here—both in terms of their overall tactical setup and pure individual talent. In my experience, teams with this level of quality usually manage to take points off relegation candidates like Osasuna because they simply operate on a different plane.
Predicting a 2:0 win for the Basques.

Saturday 7:00 PM


Slaven vs Dinamo F2 @ 2.50

It’s pretty much the classic playbook, right? After a total disaster in the Europa League, teams usually look for any excuse to blow off some steam at their next home game—especially when they're facing someone sitting way down in the lower half of the standings.

Plus, you've got a brand new coach coming in to provide a little shock therapy and hopefully wake everyone up!

Honestly, Slaven has been absolutely terrible this year—bottom of the league, consistently bad play... I mean, how can they even surprise us at this point?

Sheffield Wednesday vs Millwall 1 @2,15 HL

Both sides are desperate for that first win—it’s been a tough start. Millwall is struggling quite a bit right now; they haven't found the back of the net in three matches, so it looks like it might take a little while to get things clicking under their new manager. Still, Kenny Jackett was there for five years... and replacing the scoring touch and physical presence of someone like Darius Henderson, who moved over to Forest, won't be easy either. As for Wednesday, despite the two losses and a draw, they don't look bad at all on the pitch—they've scored in every single game, and they were actually quite close to pulling off a win against Leeds last time out. It's interesting that the odds were sitting at 2.00 across most books yesterday, only to jump today—especially in the HL... Thanks, I'm taking this one.

Sent from my Samsung Galaxy S3

8/25 13:00 Odense vs Nordsjaelland
Odense IBN @ 1.80

Odense is dealing with some absences, specifically missing Schoop (mf 3/0) and Kadri (mf 2/3)

On the other side, Nordsjaelland will likely rotate their squad since they pulled off a solid 1:1 draw away against Elfsborg in the first leg of the Europa League qualifiers. Because of that result, they’re planning to give some rest to guys like Mtiliga (df 3/0), Anders 'AC' Christiansen (mf 5/0), Morten Nordstrand (att 4/3, their top scorer), Jens Stryger Larsen (mf 5/0), and Mario Ticinovic (mf 5/0). They also have Tychosen (att 3/0), Lorentzen (mf 0), Bech (0/0), Laudrup (0/0), Aynaoglu (0), and S. Christiansen (0/0) out of the lineup too

Personally, I feel like the home team has a really great shot at grabbing a win here while playing in front of their own fans. ☕