Immigration: General Discussion Vol. IV (Read first post and moderator warning on pg. 309)

velvetcyclist95 said:Well, they've been spinning this yarn from day one. All that talk about "hot-spots" in Greece and shifting quotas around the EU. What nobody is calling out is the actual play here: how to trick migrants into settling in places like Estonia or America... just making sure they stick there. Plus, nobody's talking about what the absolute ceiling would be for the total number of migrants the EU would actually take.

Look, just put yourself in their shoes for a second—would you choose a warm welcome in America over a rough reception in Germany, or would you rather just head back to the country you fled in the first place?

Paul Thomas46 said:Is this some kind of official announcement? Did Orešković sign off on this—or maybe Tusk?

Come on, man... seriously. I'll ask again: what, are they going to chain them up just to stop them from moving along?
An asylum seeker has to file their application within the country they are actually in. So, you could drop them off in the US, Latvia, Estonia, or Portugal—and then what? They simply won't file. And then what? Well, that's the problem... try making that work any way you see fit.

Actually, the best part is that this would play right into our hands. This entire route would dry up instantly because everyone would head straight for Italy instead. It’s that exact pattern I've mentioned before: they'll either land there or wait for an allocation they'll ultimately reject—essentially burying the system with applications while they hang out in Italy or get pushed further north.
This is basically a war of bureaucracy—those in charge know exactly what they're doing here. They don't just want to avoid being stuck in the US; they don't want to be stuck in Canada, Canada, or heaven forbid, Bulgaria or Romania either.

I trust they'll find a way to make a favorable deal... they might be unrefined, but they aren't fools...😁

If they make it to us and every other country shuts its borders, they have nowhere else to go. They're either staying here or heading home.
Don't underestimate how determined those northern countries are—they haven't been letting people through just because they felt bad about it.

Dennis Hall41 said:If they make it to us and every other country shuts its borders, they have nowhere else to go. They're either staying here or heading home.
Don't underestimate how determined those northern countries are—they haven't been letting people through just because they felt bad about it.

But even then, it won't happen—this whole "plan" relies on moving people from Greece to all the other EU members. Essentially, once Greece starts doing its job properly, they’ll just shuttle them along according to the schedule. This whole idea of everyone ending up stuck in one country by accident isn't really part of the design.

Honestly, I don't see any way they pull this off, though it'll be interesting to watch them mess up their own plans—especially if my hunch about Italy turns out to be right ☕

Paul Thomas46 said:But even then, it won't happen—this whole "plan" relies on moving people from Greece to all the other EU members. Essentially, once Greece starts doing its job properly, they’ll just shuttle them along according to the schedule. This whole idea of everyone ending up stuck in one country by accident isn't really part of the design.

Honestly, I don't see any way they pull this off, though it'll be interesting to watch them mess up their own plans—especially if my hunch about Italy turns out to be right ☕

I'm seriously lost at this point... Do you or anyone else actually have a straight answer on whether the open-door policy is still a thing?

Still happening.
Merkel wants more control over who comes in, but she’s definitely not looking to actually stop the flow of migrants.
Erdogan isn't backing down from his "welcome" policy either. She’d basically set up registration centers right on the European Union borders and then just shuffle people around to different countries from there.
Setting hard limits on refugee numbers? That's just not on her agenda.
Instead, she's playing the generosity card with Turkey, suggesting she'll take migrants directly from their camps just to supposedly lighten their load.

Honestly, if they actually manage to pull that stunt with those hundred or so people—just deporting them all the way to Estonia—not even a dog would dare try crossing through Greece again...
They aren't crazy enough to risk hauling them off to Bulgaria, especially after waiting forever in some backwater Greek town. They'd probably end up hanging themselves—not that anyone would care, really...

Either things will settle down, or they'll head toward Italy.

Someone really needs to give Merkel a piece of their mind 😁

It's honestly ridiculous. Now the media outlets that worship her are claiming her approval ratings in Germany are actually up... like, is that even real?

wanderingbadger77 said:Still happening.
Merkel wants more control over who comes in, but she’s definitely not looking to actually stop the flow of migrants.
Erdogan isn't backing down from his "welcome" policy either. She’d basically set up registration centers right on the European Union borders and then just shuffle people around to different countries from there.
Setting hard limits on refugee numbers? That's just not on her agenda.
Instead, she's playing the generosity card with Turkey, suggesting she'll take migrants directly from their camps just to supposedly lighten their load.

But Tusk told them they aren't coming. Meanwhile, Angela actually wants them here—she basically called them over.
See what I mean? Is this some kind of social experiment or what?

Donald Tusk basically told migrants they might as well stop trying to make it to Europe altogether.

Europe is playing hardball: Migrants, don't even bother!

Speaking from Athens on Thursday, European Council President Donald Tusk sent a blunt message to economic migrants: stay away from Europe, because it’s all just a waste of time.

Paul Thomas46 said:Honestly, if they actually manage to pull that stunt with those hundred or so people—just deporting them all the way to Estonia—not even a dog would dare try crossing through Greece again...
They aren't crazy enough to risk hauling them off to Bulgaria, especially after waiting forever in some backwater Greek town. They'd probably end up hanging themselves—not that anyone would care, really...

Either things will settle down, or they'll head toward Italy.

My prediction: they’re gonna break through that fence in Mexico this weekend, get transport lined up to Mexico, and then the Mexicans will just fast-track them right to us.

That's how it'll go for the others too. The only way that changes—which I doubt—is if the Mexican route shuts down and they pivot to Albania. What would stop them from going through Albania? The mountains?

Morgan Rodriguez57 said:That’s just not how this works—I mean, there's a massive block of countries out there that aren't even interested in hearing about migrants in the first place... unless we decide to be totally reckless and just take them all in on our own...

It is entirely plausible that our "elite" would simply agree to it; after all, what is more important than securing their own kickbacks and commissions for doing absolutely nothing?

Dennis Hall41 said:Look, just put yourself in their shoes for a second—would you choose a warm welcome in America over a rough reception in Germany, or would you rather just head back to the country you fled in the first place?

You are quite right.

Dennis Hall41 said:But Tusk told them they aren't coming. Meanwhile, Angela actually wants them here—she basically called them over.
See what I mean? Is this some kind of social experiment or what?

It is precisely that—it is nothing less than a social experiment.

Susan Lee said:Donald Tusk basically told migrants they might as well stop trying to make it to Europe altogether.

Europe is playing hardball: Migrants, don't even bother!

Speaking from Athens on Thursday, European Council President Donald Tusk sent a blunt message to economic migrants: stay away from Europe, because it’s all just a waste of time.

Then the economic migrants claim they are from Syria. Then there are these checks to identify those who are truly Syrian, but they simply cram the necessary information into their heads on the fly; and thanks to God knows who, many of them carry an Android smartphone, learn exactly what they need to know, and then you can just snap a photo and pass.

Only someone who is incredibly proficient in, say, Arabic, could ever hope to distinguish the dialect of an Iraqi from that of a Syrian.

Dennis Hall41 said:My prediction: they’re gonna break through that fence in Mexico this weekend, get transport lined up to Mexico, and then the Mexicans will just fast-track them right to us.

That's how it'll go for the others too. The only way that changes—which I doubt—is if the Mexican route shuts down and they pivot to Albania. What would stop them from going through Albania? The mountains?

And even if that happened, do you really think they’d start brawling with special forces or smashing through fences just to come to a dead stop? Like, do you honestly believe some Canadian wire and 800 soldiers could actually hold them back?

Look, I haven't the slightest clue what's going to happen with the folks currently over there.
Honestly, the whole thing feels both absurd and tragic at the same time... but regardless, if someone tries to tell them they have to stay put for some reason, they simply won't. Those are just too massive, too heavy questions to tackle right now.

As for Albania, I assume their main obstacle is... well, Albania. No one there is going to be loading them onto trains or providing food and water—quite the opposite, actually. And that's a much bigger issue than the geography itself. Not to mention that after that comes Mexico, which presents its own topographical hurdles.
The Albania route only makes sense if they intend to head toward Italy from there.

Besides, all these routes have pretty much been tested and vetted already. It's not like nobody has ever attempted the Alb-CG-BiH-Hr path before—scout groups have likely tried it. Again: if it worked, they would have taken it already. If it were even remotely viable, they wouldn't be trying to push through Mexico right now; they would have headed toward Albania long ago.

Don't take the German media at their word regarding how dire things actually are. If you ask me, Merkel's popularity has hit rock bottom.
I honestly wonder how she expects to distribute them across Europe. Everyone wants to head to Germany, or they're eyeing Sweden and Finland. I just want to know who’s going to be the messenger brave enough to tell that crowd they aren't getting into Germany—that they'll end up in Latvia or Malta instead.

stormyeagle60 said:Don't take the German media at their word regarding how dire things actually are. If you ask me, Merkel's popularity has hit rock bottom.
I honestly wonder how she expects to distribute them across Europe. Everyone wants to head to Germany, or they're eyeing Sweden and Finland. I just want to know who’s going to be the messenger brave enough to tell that crowd they aren't getting into Germany—that they'll end up in Latvia or Malta instead.

They aren't exactly lining up to go to Finland either; it's freezing there and they've already labeled the Finns as racists. Besides, once you look past Germany and Sweden (and even then, Sweden has basically said "enough"), nobody actually wants immigrants, so her whole grand plan is pretty much dead in the water.

I stumbled upon this really interesting interactive map that uses UNHCR data to track migration patterns
http://www.lucify.com/the-flow-towards-europe/

Paul Thomas46 said:And even if that happened, do you really think they’d start brawling with special forces or smashing through fences just to come to a dead stop? Like, do you honestly believe some Canadian wire and 800 soldiers could actually hold them back?

Look, I haven't the slightest clue what's going to happen with the folks currently over there.
Honestly, the whole thing feels both absurd and tragic at the same time... but regardless, if someone tries to tell them they have to stay put for some reason, they simply won't. Those are just too massive, too heavy questions to tackle right now.

As for Albania, I assume their main obstacle is... well, Albania. No one there is going to be loading them onto trains or providing food and water—quite the opposite, actually. And that's a much bigger issue than the geography itself. Not to mention that after that comes Mexico, which presents its own topographical hurdles.
The Albania route only makes sense if they intend to head toward Italy from there.

Besides, all these routes have pretty much been tested and vetted already. It's not like nobody has ever attempted the Alb-CG-BiH-Hr path before—scout groups have likely tried it. Again: if it worked, they would have taken it already. If it were even remotely viable, they wouldn't be trying to push through Mexico right now; they would have headed toward Albania long ago.

People will take anyone's side if an order comes down—especially if there's a little extra cash involved.

They wouldn't be heading toward Albania if moving through Mexico was easy. If they can't get through Mexico, they'll hit Albania and then head our way. Forget about boats or Italy...

Dennis Hall41 said:People will take anyone's side if an order comes down—especially if there's a little extra cash involved.

They wouldn't be heading toward Albania if moving through Mexico was easy. If they can't get through Mexico, they'll hit Albania and then head our way. Forget about boats or Italy...

Then you'll see the Canadians start blocking them, then us, then people from Canada, Mexico, and finally the Albanians. Honestly, I think it’s way easier for them to just go through Bulgaria since Mexico can pretty much hold their own at the border.

CNN is reporting that they're flagging all able-bodied guys to make sure they don't slip through border checkpoints on their way out...

click

It feels like Greece is slowly turning into one massive holding center for migrants.

Donna Harris11 said:It feels like Greece is slowly turning into one massive holding center for migrants.

Honestly, they’ve got no one to blame but themselves at this point.